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APP

App State 38 at Texas State 17

TXST
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2020 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:21 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:04: Tyler Vitt pass intercepted for a TD Brendan Harrington return for 49 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +2.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:09: Zac Thomas pass complete to Caleb Spurlin for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +2.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:16: Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 9 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +4.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:20: Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 14 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +8.7 pts (now 12%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:59: Camerun Peoples run for 32 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 11:03TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:37APP 4th & 9 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:35TXST 4th & 5 at APP 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:08APP 4th & 7 at APP 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:20TXST 4th & 13 at APP 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:03TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:03APP 4th & 19 at APP 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:49TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:15APP 4th & 2 at TXST 16, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.4
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00APP 4th & 6 at APP 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:27TXST 4th & 5 at APP 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    11.7%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:42APP 4th & 1 at TXST 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%−1.5
    80% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−6.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:20APP 4th & 4 at APP 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:37TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:06TXST 4th & 13 at APP 19, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 14:16TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:08APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:04APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:09APP Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:16APP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:20TXST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:59APP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:448% → 9%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
8.4%
Brock Sturges run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+75
8.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 75 yds for a TD APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:0391% → 90%
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
8.8%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
8.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for 7 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+14
8.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 14 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
8.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for no gain to the AppSt 49Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
8.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for 7 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+2
8.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32 Daetrich Harrington fumbled, forced by Sione Tupou, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
9.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 32 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
10.0%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 9
OWN 19
-6
10.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Calvin Hill for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 13Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 15
OWN 13
0
9.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah Haydel, broken up by Demetrius TaylorSimilar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 15
OWN 13
0
9.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
10.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 9
50
+1
10.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 1 yd to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-1
10.4%
Zac Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 9
50
0
10.6%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Haydel at the TexSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
11.4%
Tyler Vitt run for 3 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+9
11.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 9 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
11.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 8 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 2
OWN 25
0
11.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah Haydel, broken up by Ryan HuffSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+21
11.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 21 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
11.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 1 yd to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
11.7%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr., broken up by D'Marco JacksonSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+4
11.5%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
11.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, downed at the AppSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
13.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the AppSt 12Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+7
13.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 7 yds to the AppSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
13.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
13.1%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
13.2%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 7
OWN 22
+1
13.4%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 49 yds , Jeremiah Haydel returns for 1 yd to the TexSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7INT TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:5615% → 12%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
14.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 12 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
14.9%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-49
12.4%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted for a TD Brendan Harrington return for 49 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 3:4412% → 15%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
12.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
12.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 9 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+33
13.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 33 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
13.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 22
-2
13.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 24
0
12.8%
Tyler Vitt run for no gain to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 13
OPP 24
+42
15.0%
Seth Keller 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1185% → 88%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
15.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the AppSt 26 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the AppSt 16Similar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+6
15.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 6 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
15.2%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
15.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Christian Wells for 15 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
14.5%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 36Similar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+1
15.0%
Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+16
15.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 16 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
14.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for 19 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
14.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 6 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+6
14.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
14.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 15 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Caleb Spurlin for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
12.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-10
12.1%
Vitt,Tyler pass incomplete to Haydel,Jeremiah, PENALTY TXST holding (Rivas,Eddie) 10 yards to the TXST11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 20
OWN 11
+17
12.0%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jordon Earle) to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
12.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, UR (Caleb Spurlin) to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
12.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+6
12.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 6 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
12.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen Banks, broken up by Kaiden SmithSimilar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+21
11.7%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 38 , Malik Williams returns for 21 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
12.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-5
12.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 35Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 13
OWN 35
0
12.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik Williams, broken up by Zion ChildressSimilar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 13
OWN 35
-6
13.1%
Zac Thomas sacked by London Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 29 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Zac Thomas) to the AppSt 29Similar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 19
OWN 29
-2
13.3%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 45 yds , Jeremiah Haydel returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
12.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Calvin Hill for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 15
OWN 19
0
12.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jah'Marae ShereadSimilar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+7
12.0%
Tyler Vitt run for 7 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
11.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Malik Williams at the AppSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 2:0987% → 91%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
12.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+6
12.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Christian Wells for 6 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+5
12.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 5 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
12.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 17 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
12.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 9 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 1
OPP 26
0
12.1%
Malik Williams pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
12.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
11.5%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Christian Wells, broken up by Auston DeasonSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
11.5%
Zac Thomas run for 2 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+6
11.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
8.8%
Chandler Staton 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
11.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the TexSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
10.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
10.0%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
10.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
10.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Nate Noel for 16 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
9.5%
Zac Thomas run for 2 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+2
9.5%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
9.6%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Henry Pearson, broken up by Brendon LuperSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
10.1%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 42 yds , Jeremiah Haydel returns for no gain to the TexSt 48 TEXAS STATE Penalty, illegal block (5 Yards) to the TexSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16INT
14 plays · 67 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
10.3%
Tyler Vitt run for 3 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+17
10.2%
Tyler Vitt run for 17 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
10.4%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 27 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
11.6%
Tyler Vitt run for 6 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
11.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+9
11.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 9 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
12.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr., broken up by D'Marco JacksonSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-15
11.8%
Vitt,Tyler sideline pass incomplete to GrahamJr, T, PENALTY TXST tripping (Cooper,Dalton) 15 yards to the APP48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 25
OPP 48
-15
11.2%
Vitt,Tyler sideline pass complete to GrahamJr, T for 19 yards to the APP29, out-of-bounds (Jolly, Shaun), PENALTY TXST pass interference (Jackson,Drue) 15 yards to the TXST37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 40
OWN 37
+5
10.4%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 17 yds to the TEXSTATE 46 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Marcell Barbee) to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 35
OWN 42
+16
10.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Brock Sturges for 16 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 19
OPP 42
+14
10.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 14 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 5
OPP 28
0
11.1%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Shemar Jean-Charles return for no gain to the AppSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD
18 plays · 91 yds · 7:2692% → 99%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
8.5%
Daetrich Harrington run for 11 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
8.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+17
8.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Trey Ross for 17 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
7.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
7.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 1
50
+3
7.8%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds to the TexSt 47 Zac Thomas fumbled, forced by Christian Taylor, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
7.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen Virgil, broken up by Jarron MorrisSimilar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
7.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+16
7.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 16 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
7.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+2
7.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 2 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 1
OPP 17
-5
7.6%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Miller Gibbs) to the TexSt 22Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+5
7.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 5 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+1
8.3%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
5.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Christian Wells, broken up by DeJordan MaskSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
5.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
1.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 9 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:563% → 12%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
2.6%
Vitt,Tyler deep out pass incomplete to Barbee,Marcell, PENALTY APP pass interference (Smith, Kaiden) 15 yards to the TXST40, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
2.7%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+10
2.8%
Calvin Hill run for 10 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
2.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
2.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 2 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+31
2.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 17 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, roughing passer (14 Yards) to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
11.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 14 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.6%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
4.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 6 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
4.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
4.9%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:128% → 5%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
7.7%
Brock Sturges run for 14 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
8.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 12
OWN 42
-7
8.1%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Demetrius Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 19
OWN 35
+12
7.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 12 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
5.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21TD
3 plays · 47 yds · 1:3297% → 99%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
3.4%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+11
3.4%
Camerun Peoples run for 11 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
0.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 32 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22DOWNS
14 plays · 56 yds · 2:471% → 1%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
1.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 13 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
1.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+15
1.0%
Tyler Vitt run for 15 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
1.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Drue Jackson for 14 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
1.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the AppSt 27Similar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 5
OPP 27
-8
1.3%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Jalen McLeod for a loss of 8 yards to the AppSt 35Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+19
1.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 19 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
1.2%
Tyler Vitt run for no gain to the AppSt 16Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-15
0.9%
Vitt,Tyler pass incomplete to GrahamJr, T (Jones, Steven), PENALTY TXST pass interference (GrahamJr, T) 15 yards to the APP31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 25
OPP 31
+12
0.9%
Calvin Hill run for 12 yds to the AppSt 19 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 13
OPP 19
0
0.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 13
OPP 19
0
0.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23Uncategorized
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
0.4%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+15
0.4%
Nate Noel run for 15 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
0.4%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-1
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:20
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 14 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
+8.7
TD · Q4 14:16
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 9 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
-4.6
TD · Q4 5:59
Camerun Peoples run for 32 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
-2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com