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UL

Louisiana 44 at Texas State 34

TXST
2020 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2020 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:36 · Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Pregame prior−18.8Home team on offense−17.3Score differential−8.9Garbage-time factor−5.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:40: Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 33 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +6.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:23: Trey Ragas run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK) — UL win probability +7.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:26: Brock Sturges run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TXST win probability +7.3 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:15: Trey Ragas run for 7 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK) — UL win probability +10.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:50: Brock Sturges run for 18 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +6.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:20TXST 4th & 4 at UL 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−1.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:14UL 4th & 8 at UL 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:04TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:40TXST 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.3%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:17TXST 4th & 18 at TXST 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:21UL 4th & 7 at UL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:32TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:33UL 4th & 9 at TXST 25, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−4.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:27TXST 4th & 13 at UL 42, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    13.3%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:36TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 30, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:26UL 4th & 5 at UL 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:50TXST 4th & 3 at UL 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%−2.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:08TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:15UL 4th & 3 at TXST 40, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    94.8%−0.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:25TXST 4th & 14 at UL 37, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%
    40% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:54UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:54UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:20TXST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:42TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:40TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:21UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:23UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:07UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:26TXST Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:15UL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:50TXST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1INT
4 plays · 48 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+40
13.5%
Brock Sturges run for 40 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
13.5%
Brock Sturges run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 35
-29
13.5%
Brady McBride pass intercepted Bralen Trahan return for 29 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 2:0186% → 86%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
13.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 14 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
13.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 11 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
13.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+13
13.9%
Trey Ragas run for 13 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
14.1%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
14.5%
Brady McBride run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 35Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
14.3%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
14.3%
Brady McBride pass intercepted Eric Garror return for no gain to the TexSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4TD
1 play · 46 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
13.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Calif Gossett for 46 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 3:2814% → 16%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+23
13.9%
Brady McBride run for 23 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
14.0%
Brock Sturges run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
14.1%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+19
14.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jackson Lanam for 4 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
14.1%
Brock Sturges run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
14.1%
Brock Sturges run for no gain to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
14.1%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+2
14.1%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+12
15.8%
Seth Keller run for 12 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
15.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+7
15.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
15.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Chris Smith for 4 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+6
15.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
15.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+5
15.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
15.1%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
15.2%
Chris Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
15.2%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:14
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+5
15.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 46 yds , Jeremiah Haydel returns for 5 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
16.7%
Brady McBride run for no gain to the TexSt 14Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
16.7%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 10
OWN 14
-2
16.4%
Brady McBride run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 12Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 12
OWN 12
0
16.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 53 yds , Eric Garror returns for no gain to the LaLaf 35 Eric Garror fumbled, recovered by TexSt Jarron MorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8TD
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:3018% → 22%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
18.0%
Brady McBride run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+24
17.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 12 yds to the LaLaf 24 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, roughing passer (Joe Dillon) to the LaLaf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
18.0%
McBride, Brady pass incomplete to Haydel,Jeremiah, PENALTY LA pass interference (Garror,Eric) 10 yards to the LA2, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
18.0%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
18.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 1 yd to the LaLaf 1Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9FUMBLE
6 plays · 61 yds · 0:3580% → 80%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
20.3%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+16
20.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 16 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
20.3%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
20.3%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+37
20.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Chris Smith for 37 yds Chris Smith fumbled, forced by Hal Vinson, recovered by TexSt Kevin AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:0022% → 30%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
22.2%
McBride, Brady pass incomplete to Haydel,Jeremiah, PENALTY LA pass interference (Garror,Eric) 15 yards to the TXST41, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
23.0%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
23.1%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+7
22.4%
Brady McBride run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 1
50
+2
22.5%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
23.5%
McBride, Brady pass incomplete to Haydel,Jeremiah, PENALTY LA pass interference (Garner,Mekhi) 15 yards to the LA33, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
30.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 33 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1972% → 79%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
28.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 13 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
27.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 3 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
27.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+20
27.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 20 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
26.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 4
OPP 32
-5
25.4%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
26.4%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+13
26.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 13 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
25.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+12
25.6%
Trey Ragas run for 12 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
21.5%
Levi Lewis run for 12 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+29
26.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 29 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
28.6%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
28.5%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 8
OPP 45
-10
27.8%
Brady McBride sacked by Ferrod Gardner for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 18
OWN 45
+9
25.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds , Eric Garror returns for 9 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
25.3%
Chris Smith run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
24.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Chris Smith for 6 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
24.0%
Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-1
23.8%
Chris Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 2
OWN 38
-5
25.3%
LOUISIANA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+8
26.4%
Rhys Byrns punt for 43 yds , Jeremiah Haydel returns for 8 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:4430% → 28%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
29.7%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
29.5%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-8
29.2%
Brady McBride sacked by Kam Pedescleaux for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 14
OWN 28
0
28.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:0374% → 84%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
26.3%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Peter LeBlancSimilar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+27
26.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 27 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
24.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 7 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+11
23.8%
Trey Ragas run for 11 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+17
23.8%
Trey Ragas run for 17 yds to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.5%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
19.6%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+19
19.6%
Brady McBride run for 19 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
20.4%
Brady McBride pass intercepted Eric Garror return for no gain to the LaLaf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 0:4782% → 89%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
17.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
50
+8
16.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 8 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+11
16.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 11 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+28
16.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 28 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
15.7%
Lewis,Levi pass incomplete to Johnson,Neal, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Morris, Jarron) 1 yards to the TXST2, 1ST DOWN LA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
15.7%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
15.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the TexSt 1Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 1 yd for a TD (Nate Snyder PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19FG
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:2786% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+51
14.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 51 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
13.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
13.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
13.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 20
-5
14.2%
LOUISIANA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+42
10.7%
Nate Snyder 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
12.2%
Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+3
12.3%
Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+8
12.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 8 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
13.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 6 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, roughing passer (Lorenzo McCaskill) to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
13.7%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
13.6%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 9
OPP 38
-4
13.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Brock Sturges for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
12.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 27 yds, downed at the LaLaf 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
9.9%
Trey Ragas run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
9.8%
Levi Lewis pass intercepted Jarron Morris return for no gain to the TexSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
11.5%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-10
11.7%
McBride, Brady rush for 7 yards to the TXST40, out-of-bounds (Moncrief,Kris), PENALTY TXST HOL (Lynch,Jake) 10 yards to the TXST23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 17
OWN 23
0
11.1%
Brady McBride run for no gain to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 17
OWN 23
+7
10.9%
Brady McBride run for 7 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 9:36
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
11.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
9.5%
Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+6
9.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Calif Gossett for 6 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+12
9.2%
Trey Ragas run for 12 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
8.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Trey Ragas for 8 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+6
8.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
8.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Chris Smith for 2 yds Chris Smith fumbled, forced by Auston Deason, recovered by TexSt Sione Tupou , return for 6 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:0112% → 20%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
11.7%
Brock Sturges run for 7 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
12.0%
Brock Sturges run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
50
+2
12.1%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+16
12.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 16 yds to the LaLaf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
12.7%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
12.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 7 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+15
12.6%
McBride, Brady pass incomplete to Banks,Javen, PENALTY LA pass interference (Washington,AJ) 15 yards to the LA10, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
19.9%
Brock Sturges run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
16.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
16.6%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Johnny LumpkinSimilar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+10
17.6%
Rhys Byrns punt for 52 yds , Jeremiah Haydel returns for 10 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
16.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 12 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
17.3%
Calvin Hill run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
50
+3
18.3%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
18.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 4 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
18.6%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Chandler Speights, broken up by Bralen TrahanSimilar
Q3 1:50
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
17.0%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 27TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 4:4985% → 96%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
15.1%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+7
15.1%
Trey Ragas run for 7 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
14.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 9 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+3
14.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
14.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 7 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+4
14.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
14.3%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+4
14.3%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+9
14.8%
Trey Ragas run for 9 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
4.1%
Trey Ragas run for 7 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
4.5%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+3
4.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 3 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
4.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 6 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 4
OWN 33
0
4.8%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-5
4.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Russell Baker) to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
4.4%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
4.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 29DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
4.3%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+10
4.3%
Emani Bailey run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
4.0%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+10
4.0%
Emani Bailey run for 10 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
3.9%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
3.8%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Dontae FlemingSimilar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+2
3.9%
Jr. Michael Orphey run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
4.2%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Dalen CambreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 30TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:353% → 10%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
2.8%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+28
2.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 28 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-8
3.4%
Brady McBride sacked by Chauncey Manac for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 18
OPP 41
+4
2.9%
Brock Sturges run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 14
OPP 37
0
2.9%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 14
OPP 37
+19
2.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 19 yds to the LaLaf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
9.5%
Brock Sturges run for 18 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 31END OF GAME
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0495% → 96%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
5.1%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+12
4.2%
Trey Ragas run for 12 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
4.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-2
4.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:15
Trey Ragas run for 7 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q2 1:23
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q3 3:26
Brock Sturges run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com