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TXST

Texas State 20 at South Alabama 30

USA
2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Pregame prior+12.3Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:12: Chance Lovertich pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 15 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST down Chance Lovertich pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 15 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined — USA win probability +9.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:57: Brock Sturges run for 1 yd for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +18.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:01: Diego Guajardo 24 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +9.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:30: Seth Keller 41 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +10.4 pts (now 48%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:10: Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 8 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +27.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 8 at USA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:53USA 4th & 15 at TXST 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:19TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:13USA 4th & 1 at USA 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.1%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:24TXST 4th & 2 at USA 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%−1.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:48TXST 4th & 3 at USA 13, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.2%−0.7
    85% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−6.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00USA 4th & 4 at USA 29, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:31TXST 4th & 7 at USA 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%−1.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:37USA 4th & 8 at USA 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:57USA 4th & 5 at USA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:27TXST 4th & 2 at USA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    41.5%−3.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−3.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:01USA 4th & 1 at TXST 6, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%
    69% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%−5.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−21.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:30TXST 4th & 6 at USA 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−1.5
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−12.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:10TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:09USA 4th & 4 at TXST 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:07TXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:19USA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:12USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:57TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:10USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 36 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
62.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jackson Lanam for 10 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
62.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 9 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+5
62.3%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
62.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 6 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-2
62.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+6
62.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 6 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
62.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Brock Sturges for 4 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-2
62.3%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
62.3%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr., broken up by Ryan MeltonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
62.3%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:0462% → 63%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
62.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 9 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+13
62.6%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 13 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
62.7%
Carlos Davis run for 16 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
62.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 7 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+5
62.7%
Desmond Trotter run for 5 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
62.7%
Carlos Davis run for 12 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-13
62.7%
Carlos Davis run for 2 yds to the TexSt 1 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (Hadon Merchant) to the TexSt 16Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
-1
62.6%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 17Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+2
62.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Carlos Davis for 2 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q1 6:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
62.5%
Diego Guajardo 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 2:4637% → 42%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
62.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 10 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
62.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 10 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
62.1%
Brock Sturges run for 5 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
62.1%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+5
62.3%
Brock Sturges run for 5 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
61.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 14 yds to the SAlab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
61.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 8 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+4
61.8%
Brock Sturges run for 4 yds to the SAlab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
58.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jackson Lanam for 9 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
Q1 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
58.5%
Keller,Seth kick attempt failed, PENALTY USA offside (Flenord, Davyn) 2 yards to the USA1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 5:4860% → 64%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 6 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
60.4%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Jacob Shoemaker) to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
59.7%
Carlos Davis run for 5 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
59.5%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Wyatt Green) to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+28
59.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 28 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
61.1%
Desmond Trotter run for 6 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
61.1%
Carlos Davis run for 3 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 1
OWN 0
0
57.8%
Davis, Carlos rush for no gain to the TXST37 (Luper,Brendon), PENALTY USA holding off-setting, PENALTY TXST player disqualification off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
60.2%
Desmond Trotter run for 3 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
61.0%
Carlos Davis run for 7 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
61.0%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen Wayne, broken up by Jarron MorrisSimilar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+4
60.3%
Jared Wilson run for 4 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
60.9%
Carlos Davis run for 2 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+14
60.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 14 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
60.9%
Carlos Davis run for 3 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
60.9%
Carlos Davis run for 3 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.9%
Carlos Davis run for 1 yd for a TD TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
62.7%
Brady McBride sacked by Jeremiah Littles for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSt 13Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 20
OWN 13
+3
63.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 3 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 17
OWN 16
+10
63.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 10 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
63.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 53 yds, downed at the SAlab 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
62.4%
Carlos Davis run for 3 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+3
62.4%
Carlos Davis run for 3 yds to the SAlab 27 Carlos Davis fumbled, forced by Brayden Stringer, recovered by SAlab Tyler JerniganSimilar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+4
61.9%
Desmond Trotter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
62.7%
Jared Wilson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-3
62.5%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Markeveon Coleman for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 30 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+10
61.4%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 10 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
62.3%
Desmond Trotter run for no gain to the SAlab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7FG
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:3040% → 44%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
60.3%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jah'Marae Sheread, broken up by Keith GallmonSimilar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
60.4%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jahmyl JeterSimilar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+8
61.1%
Brady McBride run for 8 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+12
62.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jackson Lanam for 12 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
59.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the SAlab 20Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
59.5%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
60.2%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
55.6%
Seth Keller 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:3661% → 73%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.8%
Chance Lovertich run for 3 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
60.9%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 18 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
63.1%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 13 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
63.6%
Carlos Davis run for 5 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
63.6%
Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Kawaan Baker, broken up by Zion ChildressSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+8
63.1%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 8 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
64.2%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+12
63.8%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Cade Sutherland for 12 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
64.2%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Cade Sutherland for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
64.2%
Lovertich,Chnce pass incomplete to Tyre, Trent, PENALTY TXST face mask (Coleman,M) 2 yards to the TXST2, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
64.2%
Carlos Davis run for 1 yd to the TexSt 1Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
64.2%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Tyler Jernigan) to the TexSt 6Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
64.2%
Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Jalen Tolbert, broken up by Jarron MorrisSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
63.2%
Chance Lovertich run for 5 yds to the TexSt 1 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive holding (Zion Childress) to the TexSt 1Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+15
72.9%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 15 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST down Chance Lovertich pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 15 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.9%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 1 yd for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK), (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
70.5%
Brock Sturges run for 15 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
71.9%
Carlos Davis run for 1 yd to the SAlab 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+5
71.7%
Carlos Davis run for 5 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
71.2%
Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Jalen Wayne, broken up by Jarron MorrisSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
70.1%
Jack Brooks punt for 51 yds, downed at the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
71.4%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
71.4%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
71.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for no gain to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
71.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 13 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
70.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 13 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
68.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for no gain to the SAlab 44Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
68.8%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-2
69.0%
Brady McBride run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
71.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 yds, downed at the SAlab 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
74.7%
Carlos Davis run for 2 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
74.5%
Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 8
OWN 5
0
73.5%
Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 8
OWN 5
+4
72.7%
Jack Brooks punt for 49 yds , Jeremiah Haydel returns for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:4831% → 49%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
50
+11
69.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 11 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+38
69.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 36 yds to the SAlab 3 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, face mask (2 yards) (Keith Gallmon) to the SAlab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.0%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0060% → 57%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
59.7%
Desmond Trotter run for no gain to the SAlab 21Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
59.5%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen Wayne, broken up by Tory SpearsSimilar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+5
57.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 5 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
57.3%
Jack Brooks punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Haydel at the TexSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
55.3%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
53.6%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue Jackson, broken up by Keon VoisinSimilar
Q3 6:27
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+17
55.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 17 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
52.2%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+2
52.9%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q3 6:27
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+7
53.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jackson Lanam for 7 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 2
OPP 37
-3
54.6%
Brady McBride run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:3462% → 71%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
61.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 3 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-11
62.6%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Nico Ezidore for a loss of 11 yards to the SAlab 32Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 18
OWN 32
+30
57.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 15 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, player disqualification (Markeveon Coleman) to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
63.7%
Carlos Davis run for 5 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+3
64.8%
Carlos Davis run for 3 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 2
OPP 30
0
63.1%
AJ Phillips run for no gain to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+15
60.9%
Trotter,Desmond pass incomplete to Tolbert, Jalen, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Spears, Tory) 15 yards to the TXST15, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
64.8%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 18
0
64.5%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+12
61.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 12 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+24
71.4%
Diego Guajardo 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:3134% → 48%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
66.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 22 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
62.2%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Chandler SpeightsSimilar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
62.5%
Brady McBride run for 5 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+10
62.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jackson Lanam for 10 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
60.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 2 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+1
60.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 25Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+1
62.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
52.1%
Seth Keller 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:2058% → 89%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.4%
Carlos Davis run for 9 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
61.4%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Brandon Crum for 8 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
61.9%
Carlos Davis run for 3 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (Sione Tupou) to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
63.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Trent Tyre for 19 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
65.2%
Carlos Davis run for 4 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+5
65.2%
Trotter,Desmond pass incomplete to Tolbert, Jalen, PENALTY TXST offside defense (Graham,Gavin) 5 yards to the TXST12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 1
OPP 12
0
65.2%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Carlos DavisSimilar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+2
63.3%
Carlos Davis run for 2 yds to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
65.2%
Carlos Davis run for 5 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
65.2%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 8Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
88.8%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 8 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.7%
Brady McBride run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
82.1%
Brock Sturges run for 5 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-3
81.7%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+2
84.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 28 , Jalen Wayne returns for 2 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 4:0089% → 97%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
89.2%
Carlos Davis run for 3 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+15
89.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 15 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
90.6%
Carlos Davis run for 10 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
90.9%
Carlos Davis run for 6 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-2
90.8%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+8
94.5%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 8 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
94.9%
Terrion Avery run for 4 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-3
94.9%
Terrion Avery run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+5
96.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Brandon Crum for 5 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+44
96.5%
Diego Guajardo 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21Uncategorized
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
96.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 5 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
96.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 12 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
96.4%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jah'Marae ShereadSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+18
96.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jaycob Horn for 18 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
95.2%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Javen Banks, broken up by Devin RocketteSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
95.3%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jaycob Horn, broken up by Keith GallmonSimilar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
95.9%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jah'Marae Sheread, broken up by Keith GallmonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:10
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 8 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+27.1
TD · Q3 7:57
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
-18.4
FG · Q4 10:30
Seth Keller 41 yd FG GOOD
-10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com