2020 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2020 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreCCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:56 · Charles Ouverson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 6:48: Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 6 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +16.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:47: Elijah Mitchell run for 9 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK) — UL win probability +19.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:12: Grayson McCall run for 3 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +24.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:44: Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK) — UL win probability +31.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:04: Massimo Biscardi 40 yd FG GOOD — CCU win probability +38.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 4CCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 3:17UL 4th & 5 at UL 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snapGo for it71.2%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.4%average punt
- Q1 0:56CCU 4th & 7 at CCU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snapGo for it29.1%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.2%average punt
- Q2 11:32UL 4th & 6 at CCU 39, tiedClose callPunted · 70.9% before the snapGo for it71.1%40% to convertField goal70.7%−0.436% to makePuntTheir call70.7%−0.4average punt
- Q2 6:40CCU 4th & 7 at CCU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snapGo for it32.6%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.9%average punt
- Q2 4:42UL 4th & 1 at UL 40, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 68.8% before the snapGo for it69.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.8%−1.3average punt
- Q3 13:00CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt35.4%−1.6average punt
- Q3 0:13CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snapGo for it41.6%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.8%average punt
- Q4 8:52CCU 4th & 5 at UL 41, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 46.1% before the snapGo for it46.7%42% to convertField goal42.8%−3.932% to makePuntTheir call44.4%−2.4average punt
- Q4 5:30UL 4th & 6 at UL 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snapGo for it54.5%−1.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.9%average punt
- Q4 0:04CCU 4th & 4 at UL 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snapGo for it40.1%−15.147% to convertField goalTheir call55.2%70% to makePunt26.4%−28.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:04UL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.7%97% to makeGo for two74.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:49CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.2%97% to makeGo for two27.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:03CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call45.0%97% to makeGo for two44.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:05UL Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call65.8%97% to makeGo for two65.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:48CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.4%97% to makeGo for two53.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 3:47UL Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.1%97% to makeGo for two59.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:12CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.1%97% to makeGo for two59.8%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 12:44UL Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.7%97% to makeGo for two56.5%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartULDrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4174% → 75%
Q1 13:06
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
73.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 2 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+11
73.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 11 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+12
74.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 12 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5826% → 29%
Q1 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+18
74.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 18 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+12
73.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 12 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+14
73.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Denmark for 14 yds to the LaLaf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1372% → 71%
CCUDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 1:5429% → 29%
ULDrive 5PUNT10 plays · 53 yds · 4:1771% → 71%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-8
71.4%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 21 LOUISIANA Penalty, Personal Foul (-10 Yards) to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+41
71.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 41 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 8
OPP 34
-3
72.3%
Chris Smith run for 7 yds to the CCaro 34 LOUISIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CCaro 44Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+5
71.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Chris Smith for 5 yds to the CCaro 39 LOUISIANA Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 41 yds · 4:2030% → 33%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
69.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Patrick McSweeney for 8 yds to the CCaro 12Similar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
65.6%
Grayson McCall sacked by Lorenzo McCaskill for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 38Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+7
66.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 7 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
66.9%
Charles Ouverson punt for 41 yds , Eric Garror returns for no gain to the LaLaf 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 26 yds · 1:1870% → 70%
Q2 4:42
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
69.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaivon Heiligh at the CCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8TD8 plays · 84 yds · 3:3134% → 49%
Q2 2:50
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+11
65.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Greg Latushko for 11 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
63.1%
McCall, Grayson pass incomplete to Heiligh, Jaivon, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE pass interference (Amos, Trey) 15 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COASTALCAR.Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+26
61.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Marable for 26 yds to the LaLaf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
50.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Marable for 13 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9TD14 plays · 77 yds · 0:5057% → 71%
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+17
57.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 17 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+15
58.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 15 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
60.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 7 yds to the CCaro 32Similar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+23
59.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 23 yds to the CCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11TD17 plays · 75 yds · 7:5637% → 61%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
60.8%
Grayson McCall run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 38 Grayson McCall fumbled, recovered by CCaro Grayson McCallSimilar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+10
62.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 10 yds to the CCaro 48Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+8
58.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Greg Latushko for 8 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
39.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 6 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12TD8 plays · 66 yds · 2:3346% → 69%
CCUDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 3:2441% → 41%
ULDrive 14INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
63.4%
Levi Lewis pass intercepted Jordan Morris return for 2 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15TD3 plays · 26 yds · 0:4948% → 72%
ULDrive 16TD5 plays · 55 yds · 1:0640% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 3:4842% → 46%
ULDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 32 yds · 1:2461% → 58%
Q4 7:05
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+6
58.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 6 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+5
57.5%
Byrns, Rhys punt 46 yards to the COASTALCAR26, fair catch by Heiligh, Jaivon, PENALTY COASTALCAR failure to wear required equipment 5 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ULLAFAYTTE.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3061% → 59%
CCUDrive 20FG15 plays · 61 yds · 4:5647% → 95%
ULDrive 21Uncategorized3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:04
Massimo Biscardi 40 yd FG GOOD
-38.2
TD · Q4 12:44
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)
+31.4
TD · Q4 14:12
Grayson McCall run for 3 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
-24.2