Try the model
TXST

Texas State 17 at Troy 37

TROY
2020 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2020 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:17 · Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 2 yds to the TexSt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 170Home team on offense+34.9Score differential+31.4Pregame prior+2.5Garbage-time factor+8.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.0Blowout margin+16.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:50: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 19 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +4.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:22: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 38 yds for a TD TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +9.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 3:06: Evan Legassey 45 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +6.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:31: Brady McBride pass complete to Blake Aragon for 4 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +9.7 pts (now 18%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:19: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 11 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +7.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 10TXST made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:18TXST 4th & 6 at TROY 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:55TROY 4th & 7 at TXST 31, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:40TROY 4th & 12 at TXST 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:40TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:08TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:50TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 20, down 10
    Close callPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:22TROY 4th & 8 at TXST 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.7%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:22TROY 4th & 3 at TXST 45, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    82.2%−2.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:17TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 5, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:06TROY 4th & 6 at TXST 28, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.6%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−4.7
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:35TXST 4th & 6 at TROY 20, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−4.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:50TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 43, down 20
    Close callPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:26TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 33, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:31TXST 4th & 4 at TROY 4, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−5.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:31TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 43, up 13
    Close callPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:19TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 39, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:13TROY 4th & 5 at TXST 5, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−2.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:13TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 17, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:17TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 42, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:39TROY 4th & 1 at TXST 10, up 27
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:39TXST 4th & 3 at TROY 33, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.2
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 2:08TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:50TROY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:22TROY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:31TXST Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:19TROY Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:17TROY Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:38TXST Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
66.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 9 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
66.7%
Jamontez Woods run for no gain to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
66.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger, broken up by Hal VinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:1134% → 34%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
66.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 6 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-1
66.3%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
66.3%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Brock SturgesSimilar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+5
66.4%
TROY Penalty, Defensive offside (Will Choloh) to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
66.3%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-4
66.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Brock Sturges for a loss of 4 yards Brock Sturges fumbled, recovered by TexSt Brock SturgesSimilar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
66.3%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
65.9%
Seth Keller 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3MISSED FG
17 plays · 50 yds · 4:3866% → 64%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.0%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
66.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 3 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
65.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 8 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
66.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
66.1%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+17
65.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 17 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
66.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 12 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
66.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
66.5%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
66.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for no gain to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+8
65.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 8 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-8
66.0%
Gunnar Watson run for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 31 Gunnar Watson fumbled,Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 18
OPP 31
+6
65.6%
Khalil McClain run for 6 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 12
OPP 25
0
65.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to B.J. SmithSimilar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+42
64.4%
Evan Legassey 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
64.8%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+17
65.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 17 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
64.5%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
64.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 3 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-5
64.5%
Brady McBride sacked by Reddy Steward for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 35Similar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
65.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:2064% → 67%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
63.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+44
63.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 44 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
65.2%
Gunnar Watson run for no gain to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
65.2%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+30
66.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 30 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
65.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
65.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-5
66.5%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 15
OWN 28
0
66.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:08
4TH & 15
OWN 28
0
67.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 4:4766% → 72%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-12
65.8%
TROY Penalty, personal foul (-12 Yards) to the Troy 12Similar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
65.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 2 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+20
65.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 20 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
66.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 10 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
66.9%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
66.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 7 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+10
66.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 10 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
67.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+14
67.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 14 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
67.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to DK Billingsley for 1 yd to the TexSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+1
67.6%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+19
71.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 19 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
71.3%
Trevis Graham Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+4
71.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 4 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 2
OWN 22
-2
71.5%
Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 20Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
72.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:3672% → 82%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
71.5%
Watson, Gunnar middle pass complete to Geiger, Kaylon for loss of 3 yards to the TROY30 (Vinson,Hal), PENALTY TXST face mask (Vinson,Hal) 14 yards to the TROY47, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
72.6%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+13
72.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 13 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
72.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete, broken up by Markeveon ColemanSimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
72.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+1
72.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 1 yd to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 8
OPP 38
+38
81.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 38 yds for a TD TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
83.0%
Gunnar Watson run for 4 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
83.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 3 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
82.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
81.9%
Kyle Coale punt for 44 yds, downed at the TexSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
82.0%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+3
82.2%
Brady McBride run for 3 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+1
82.3%
Jeremiah Haydel run for 1 yd to the TexSt 5Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+18
82.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds , Tez Johnson returns for 18 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1785% → 91%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
85.0%
Kaylon Geiger run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 12
OPP 34
0
84.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to B.J. Smith, broken up by DeJordan MaskSimilar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+6
84.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 6 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
90.8%
Evan Legassey 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13MISSED FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 2:3110% → 10%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
89.8%
Calvin Hill run for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
89.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 3 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+10
89.3%
McBride, Brady middle pass intercepted by Pettus, Dell at the TXST49, Pettus, Dell return to the TXST49, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Slocum, Craig) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
50
0
88.5%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 10
50
0
89.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 10
50
+15
89.3%
McBride, Brady deep pass incomplete to Haydel,Jeremiah, PENALTY TROY personal foul (Solomon, Javon) 15 yards to the TROY35, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
87.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 6 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+5
87.7%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
87.7%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
89.5%
Brady McBride run for 6 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-2
89.7%
Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 20Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
90.3%
Seth Keller 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.9%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 1:108% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
92.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (-12 Yards) to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
92.4%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 20
0
92.1%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+4
92.4%
Tyler Vitt run for 4 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
92.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 11 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
92.6%
Brock Sturges run for 7 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
92.2%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
92.3%
Tyler Vitt run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 13:50
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
92.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, downed at the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
94.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 8 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+2
94.3%
Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
93.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 3 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
93.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jamontez WoodsSimilar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
93.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+4
93.2%
Kyle Coale punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 49 , Jeremiah Haydel returns for 4 yds to the Troy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:188% → 18%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
92.0%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jah'Marae Sheread, broken up by TJ HarrisSimilar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
92.2%
Brock Sturges run for 10 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
91.9%
Brock Sturges run for 11 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
91.1%
Brock Sturges run for 5 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+15
91.1%
McBride, Brady deep pass incomplete to Horn,Jaycob, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Steward, Reddy) 15 yards to the TROY8, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-8
91.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 16 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexSt Brady McBrideSimilar
Q3 10:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+7
91.8%
Brady McBride run for 7 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
91.8%
Brady McBride run for 5 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
82.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Blake Aragon for 4 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
86.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
86.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kimani Vidal, broken up by Jarron MorrisSimilar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+3
86.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 3 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
85.4%
Jack Martin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Haydel at the TexSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 36 yds · 0:0015% → 18%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+37
85.0%
Calvin Hill run for 37 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
82.1%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-2
82.2%
Brady McBride run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 49 Brady McBride fumbled, recovered by Troy John Hines Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:5289% → 96%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
89.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 7 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+9
89.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 9 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
89.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Markeveon Coleman) to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
89.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TexSt 19Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+8
89.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 8 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+11
96.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 11 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
95.7%
Brock Sturges run for 5 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-1
95.7%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
95.8%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
95.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22MISSED FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:5697% → 98%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to B.J. SmithSimilar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
96.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+6
96.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
50
+3
96.7%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+7
96.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 7 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
98.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 20 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
98.0%
Vidal, Kimani rush right for 5 yards to the TXST15 (Harris,London;Morris, Jarron), PENALTY TXST 12 men on the field 5 yards to the TXST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 15
+10
98.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 10 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.0%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TexSt 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Bret Clark, broken up by DeJordan MaskSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q4 13:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
98.4%
Evan Legassey 22 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
98.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 19Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
98.4%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-5
98.4%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Reece Jordan) to the TexSt 14Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+3
98.4%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q4 13:13
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
98.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 2:2499% → 100%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
98.6%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+6
98.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+51
98.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 51 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
98.7%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Brady McBride run for no gain to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Brady McBride run for no gain to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Blake Aragon for 7 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 2 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26MISSED FG
6 plays · 34 yds · 3:26100% → 100%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+24
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 14 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (Sione Tupou) to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+4
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+1
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the TexSt 10Similar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+27
99.9%
Evan Legassey 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:010% → 1%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+40
99.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 40 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 4 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
99.9%
Brady McBride run for 3 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+16
99.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 16 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
99.9%
Brady McBride run for 5 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+3
99.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 3 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+3
99.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 3 yds to the Troy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:22
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 38 yds for a TD TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Evan Legassey KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q3 7:31
Brady McBride pass complete to Blake Aragon for 4 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
-9.7
TD · Q3 3:19
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 11 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com