Try the model
TXST

Texas State 38 at UL Monroe 17

ULM
2020 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2020 · Malone Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:56 · Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, downed at the LaMon 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Home team on offense−35.4Score differential−17.4Pregame prior−1.8Garbage-time factor−10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:52: Colby Suits pass complete to Jevin Frett for 20 yds for a TD (Davis Hughes KICK) — ULM win probability +4.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:43: Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 32 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +5.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:04: Tyler Vitt run for 8 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +6.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:34: Colby Suits pass complete to Chandler Whitfield for 5 yds for a TD (Davis Hughes KICK) — ULM win probability +4.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:23: Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 75 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +13.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 11TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 7:40ULM 4th & 8 at TXST 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    42.8%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:31TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:04ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.5%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:17TXST 4th & 6 at ULM 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    64.2%−5.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:38ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 47, down 17
    Close callPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:11TXST 4th & 22 at TXST 23, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−4.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:42ULM 4th & 7 at TXST 11, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−6.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:42TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:54ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.4%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00ULM 4th & 8 at TXST 16, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    16.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−5.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:51TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:25ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:56TXST 4th & 21 at ULM 37, up 14
    Close callPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    93.4%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:29ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 7, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:25ULM 4th & 17 at TXST 31, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:21TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:52ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:43TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:04TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:34ULM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:23TXST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:53TXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 3:3962% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
37.9%
Brock Sturges run for 7 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+2
37.9%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
37.9%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
37.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 10 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
37.9%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+9
37.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 9 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
37.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+36
37.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 36 yds to the LaMon 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
37.9%
Calvin Hill run for 14 yds to the LaMon 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
37.5%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 42 yds · 3:4138% → 38%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
38.0%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 13Similar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+2
37.9%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+9
37.9%
Colby Suits pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 9 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+19
37.9%
Colby Suits pass complete to Jahquan Bloomfield for 19 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
38.2%
Colby Suits pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
38.1%
Colby Suits run for 15 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
38.4%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-2
38.4%
Josh Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
38.3%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Perry Carter Jr., broken up by DeJordan MaskSimilar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
37.6%
Jared Porter punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
37.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 9 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-5
36.9%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-6
37.5%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Keilos Swinney for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 16 Tyler Vitt fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
37.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Perry Carter Jr. at the TexSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 3:0338% → 43%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
38.4%
Colby Suits run for 2 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+14
38.4%
Colby Suits pass complete to Tyler Lamm for 14 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
38.8%
Josh Johnson run for 7 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+6
38.8%
Isaiah Phillips run for 6 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
38.8%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Jordan CarrollSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
38.8%
Colby Suits run for no gain to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+20
43.2%
Colby Suits pass complete to Jevin Frett for 20 yds for a TD (Davis Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0958% → 65%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jah'Marae ShereadSimilar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.7%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
41.6%
Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
41.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
50
+18
40.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 18 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
34.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 32 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4337% → 36%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
36.7%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+5
36.6%
Colby Suits pass complete to Josh Johnson for 5 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
36.4%
Colby Suits pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
36.1%
Jared Porter punt for 40 yds , Peyton Tuggle returns for no gain to the TexSt 28 Peyton Tuggle fumbled, forced by Jahquan Bloomfield, recovered by LaMon Jahquan BloomfieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
38.8%
Josh Johnson run for 8 yds to the TexSt 38 Josh Johnson fumbled, forced by Tory Spears, recovered by TexSt Kordell Rodgers , return for 18 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:3165% → 72%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
35.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 13 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
34.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 5 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+21
34.6%
Tyler Vitt run for 21 yds to the LaMon 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
34.5%
Brock Sturges run for 9 yds to the LaMon 14Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+3
34.5%
Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the LaMon 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
34.5%
Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
28.2%
Tyler Vitt run for 8 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
29.1%
Colby Suits pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 17Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+19
28.9%
Colby Suits pass complete to Jahquan Bloomfield for 19 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
29.6%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the LaMon 36Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
29.2%
Colby Suits pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 9 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
30.0%
Isaiah Phillips run for no gain to the LaMon 45Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
30.0%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the LaMon 43 Josh Johnson fumbled, forced by Brendon Luper, recovered by LaMon Colby SuitsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2974% → 78%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
25.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Calvin HillSimilar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+16
25.8%
Tyler Vitt run for 16 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
25.6%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-1
25.6%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 24Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-10
25.3%
Vitt,Tyler pass complete to Barbee,Marcell for 24 yards to the ULM0, clock 07:03, PENALTY TXST holding (Baker,Russell) 10 yards to the ULM34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 17
OPP 34
+11
25.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 11 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
21.8%
Seth Keller 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4325% → 31%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
24.7%
Colby Suits pass complete to Zach Jackson for 10 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
25.0%
Colby Suits pass complete to Malik Jackson for 17 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
26.4%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Malik JacksonSimilar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
26.3%
Colby Suits pass complete to Jevin Frett for 5 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+6
26.3%
Colby Suits pass complete to Chandler Whitfield for 6 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
26.5%
Colby Suits pass complete to Chandler Whitfield for 18 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
27.1%
Colby Suits pass complete to Josh Johnson for 7 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+8
27.1%
Josh Johnson run for 8 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
27.1%
Josh Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 5Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
27.1%
Colby Suits pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
31.3%
Colby Suits pass complete to Chandler Whitfield for 5 yds for a TD (Davis Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
17.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 75 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:4522% → 22%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
21.5%
Colby Suits pass complete to Jahquan Bloomfield for 16 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
23.0%
Suits, Colby pass complete to Hodoh, Jonathan for 20 yards to the TXST39 (Graham,Gavin), PENALTY ULM holding (Hirsch, Garrett) 10 yards to the ULM31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+2
21.5%
Colby Suits pass complete to Josh Johnson for 2 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+14
21.4%
Colby Suits pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 14 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
21.7%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Perry Carter Jr.Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
21.6%
Jared Porter punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Haydel at the TexSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
18.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
20.1%
Josh Johnson run for 6 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
20.7%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
20.7%
Colby Suits run for no gain to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
20.2%
Jared Porter punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Haydel at the TexSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
17.8%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
17.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr., broken up by Josh NewtonSimilar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-15
18.2%
Vitt,Tyler pass complete to Barbee,Marcell for 46 yards to the ULM20 (Straughter, Cor), PENALTY TXST pass interference (Barbee,Marcell) 15 yards to the TXST19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 26
OWN 19
+4
18.5%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 22
OWN 23
+13
18.7%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds for a 1ST down , Perry Carter Jr. returns for 13 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:5720% → 21%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
19.8%
Colby Suits pass complete to Chandler Whitfield for 14 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
20.4%
Josh Johnson run for 10 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
20.4%
Colby Suits pass complete to Josh Pederson for 7 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+1
20.4%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the TexSt 6Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 2
OPP 6
-5
20.1%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 11Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
20.0%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Jonathan HodohSimilar
Q3 8:42
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
20.9%
Davis Hughes 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
17.1%
Tyler Vitt run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-4
17.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+16
17.7%
Tyler Vitt run for 16 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
16.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jah'Marae Sheread, broken up by Austin HawleySimilar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
16.1%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
16.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q3 8:42
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
17.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Perry Carter Jr. at the LaMon 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 72 yds · 5:5417% → 15%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+21
17.1%
Colby Suits pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 21 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
17.6%
Colby Suits sacked by Nico Ezidore and Gavin Graham for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+11
17.1%
Colby Suits pass complete to Jevin Frett for 11 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
18.8%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+1
18.6%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
19.0%
Colby Suits pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 17 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
19.7%
Colby Suits pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 11 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
20.6%
Isaiah Phillips run for 3 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+8
20.6%
Colby Suits pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 8 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
20.6%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Josh PedersonSimilar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
20.3%
Colby Suits pass complete to Josh Johnson for 2 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
16.2%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Jonathan HodohSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 16
0
15.4%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Malik JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
11.8%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+8
11.8%
Tyler Vitt run for 8 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
11.7%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-1
11.8%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Ty Shelby for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+12
12.2%
Vitt,Tyler pass incomplete to Haydel,Jeremiah, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Newton, Josh) 12 yards to the TXST40, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
10.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
11.1%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
11.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+4
11.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds , Perry Carter Jr. returns for 4 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.3%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Tyler Lamm, broken up by Brendon LuperSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.1%
Colby Suits pass complete to Chandler Whitfield for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
12.0%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Chandler WhitfieldSimilar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
11.9%
Jared Porter punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Haydel at the TexSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
13 plays · 31 yds · 1:3293% → 95%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
7.4%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-2
7.4%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+20
5.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 20 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
4.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 7 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+2
4.8%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+13
4.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 13 yds to the LaMon 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
4.8%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-9
4.8%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the LaMon 21 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Dalton Cooper) to the LaMon 31Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+2
4.9%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 13
OPP 29
-3
5.1%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 32Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 16
OPP 32
-5
5.6%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, delay of game (Seamus O'Kelly) to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 21
OPP 37
0
5.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, downed at the LaMon 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23INT TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 3:364% → 1%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
3.8%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Jonathan HodohSimilar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+4
3.7%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 6
OWN 7
0
3.6%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Josh Pederson, broken up by Brendon LuperSimilar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 6
OWN 7
+25
3.6%
Colby Suits pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 25 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
3.9%
Colby Suits pass complete to Josh Pederson for 3 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+9
3.9%
Colby Suits pass complete to Josh Pederson for 9 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
4.1%
Colby Suits pass complete to Isaiah Phillips for 15 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
4.3%
Colby Suits pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 17 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
5.0%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Jonathan HodohSimilar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
4.8%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Jahquan Bloomfield, broken up by Kevin AndersonSimilar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-8
4.5%
Colby Suits sacked by Jacoby Hopkins for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 31 Colby Suits fumbled, recovered by LaMon Samuel Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 17
OPP 31
+19
2.6%
Colby Suits pass complete to Josh Pederson for 19 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-100
1.0%
Colby Suits pass intercepted for a TD Jarron Morris return for 100 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.8%
Colby Suits pass complete to Malik Jackson for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
0.7%
Colby Suits pass complete to Tyler Lamm for no gain to the LaMon 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:23
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 75 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q2 12:04
Tyler Vitt run for 8 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
-6.3
TD · Q1 0:43
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 32 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
-5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com