2020 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2020 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadCAM aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreCAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:55 · Anthony Beck II punt for 55 yds, downed at the Camp 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 13:38: Hajj-Malik Williams run for 8 yds for a TD, (Robert Brown KICK) — CAM win probability +13.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: CAM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:50: J.D. King run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +20.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:42: Shai Werts run for 41 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +20.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:15: Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CAM win probability +24.2 pts (now 39%) (top driver: CAM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:15: CAMPBELL Penalty, illegal block (Ray Miller) to the Camp 30 — GASO win probability +19.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CAM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CAM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 8:37GASO 4th & 6 at CAM 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snapGo for it93.3%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call93.3%68% to makePunt92.9%−0.4average punt
- Q1 0:56GASO 4th & 14 at CAM 16, down 10Close callWent for it · 88.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.2%−0.316% to convertField goal88.5%81% to makePunt87.6%−0.9average punt
- Q2 11:01CAM 4th & 6 at CAM 43, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snapGo for it14.6%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.7%average punt
- Q2 1:53CAM 4th & 9 at CAM 38, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snapGo for it23.3%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.6%average punt
- Q2 1:43GASO 4th & 13 at GASO 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snapGo for it73.6%−1.819% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.4%average punt
- Q3 7:32GASO 4th & 1 at CAM 1, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.6%59% to convertField goal45.2%−3.394% to makePunt36.4%−12.2average punt
- Q3 7:32CAM 4th & 6 at CAM 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snapGo for it37.3%−0.939% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.2%average punt
- Q3 5:55GASO 4th & 15 at GASO 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snapGo for it57.1%−4.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.7%average punt
- Q4 15:00CAM 4th & 5 at CAM 25, up 7Close callWent for it · 51.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.7%−1.040% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt52.7%average punt
- Q4 13:50CAM 4th & 10 at GASO 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snapGo for it30.6%−1.330% to convertField goal29.0%−2.925% to makePuntTheir call31.9%average punt
- Q4 6:35CAM 4th & 6 at GASO 48, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 12.7% before the snapGo for it11.4%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.3%−1.1average punt
- Q4 2:02GASO 4th & 12 at GASO 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snapGo for it91.2%−1.221% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.3%average punt
- Q4 1:59CAM 4th & 7 at CAM 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.8%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.8%−2.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CAM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 13:03CAM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.3%97% to makeGo for two5.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:31CAM Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call7.9%97% to makeGo for two7.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:38CAM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.1%97% to makeGo for two35.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:32GASO Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.5%97% to makeGo for two59.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:50GASO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.2%97% to makeGo for two67.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 6:42GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.7%97% to makeGo for two85.2%−1.545% to convert
- Q4 0:15CAM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryNumbers favored kick by 3.6 ptsWent for two · failedKick40.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call37.4%−3.645% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCAMDrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:574% → 4%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
96.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jai Williams for 14 yds to the Camp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+15
96.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Julian Hill for 15 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+30
96.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Julian Hill for 30 yds to the GeoSo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2FG13 plays · 41 yds · 4:2696% → 95%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
96.0%
S. Werts pass incomplete to 16, PENALTY CAM pass interference 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
96.0%
J. King rush for 5 yards to the CAM35 (MCNEELY, Josh;THOMPSON, K.), PENALTY GS false start 5 yards to the CAM45, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 3TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:065% → 6%
GASODrive 4DOWNS14 plays · 54 yds · 5:2894% → 91%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
93.7%
J.D. King run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST down CAMPBELL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+14
93.9%
Shai Werts pass complete to D.J. Butler for 14 yds to the Camp 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+10
94.0%
Shai Werts pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 10 yds to the Camp 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 5PUNT11 plays · 27 yds · 4:369% → 12%
GASODrive 6FG16 plays · 77 yds · 5:5988% → 85%
Q2 10:49
2ND & 7
OWN 4
0
87.9%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Khaleb Hood, broken up by Levi WigginsSimilar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 3
OWN 8
+15
87.6%
A. Beck II punt 40 yards to the GS48, SLADE, Darion return to the GS45 (J. King), PENALTY CAM roughing the kicker (SANTIAGO, Alex) 15 yards to the GS23, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
88.3%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 11 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
88.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to D.J. Butler for 7 yds to the Camp 45Similar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
88.7%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 7 yds to the Camp 32Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
89.1%
S. Werts pass incomplete to N. Thompson (SLADE, Darion), PENALTY CAM ineligible downfield on pass 0 yards to the CAM22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
89.1%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Khaleb Hood, broken up by Levi WigginsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 14 yds · 2:5218% → 20%
Q2 4:45
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+6
82.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 6 yds to the Camp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
81.9%
Team run for no gain to the Camp 26 Team fumbled, recovered by Camp , return for no gain to the Camp 26Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
80.4%
McKay Taylor punt for 47 yds , Khaleb Hood returns for no gain to the GeoSo 38 CAMPBELL Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the GeoSo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 9END OF HALF4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 11TD4 plays · 26 yds · 1:1527% → 40%
GASODrive 12TD11 plays · 75 yds · 6:0664% → 69%
Q3 7:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to D.J. Butler for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0037% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0064% → 61%
CAMDrive 15DOWNS8 plays · -1 yds · 2:1547% → 50%
Q3 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
53.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Cedric Frazier for 6 yds to the Camp 16Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+4
54.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Cedric Frazier for 4 yds to the Camp 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-5
53.4%
CAMPBELL Penalty, delay of game (Hajj-Malik Williams) to the Camp 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+9
48.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 9 yds to the Camp 25Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 25
-15
50.5%
McKay Taylor run for a loss of 15 yards to the Camp 9 McKay Taylor fumbled, recovered by Camp McKay TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16TD2 plays · 9 yds · 0:4757% → 78%
CAMDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
69.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 18 yds to the Camp 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+10
65.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jai Williams for 10 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-5
64.6%
WILLIAMS, H. pass incomplete to FRAZIER, Cedric, PENALTY CAM illegal formation 5 yards to the GS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-5
65.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Raymond Johnson III for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18TD6 plays · 95 yds · 3:2768% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
87.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Julian Hill for 20 yds to the Camp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
85.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 5 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
87.4%
McKay Taylor punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GeoSo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20PUNT10 plays · 10 yds · 2:4392% → 94%
Q4 3:07
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-5
93.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 13 TEAM fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Shai WertsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 21TD11 plays · 64 yds · 1:448% → 24%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
92.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Jai Williams, broken up by Justin BirdsongSimilar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-5
91.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Raymond Johnson III for a loss of 5 yards to the Camp 39Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+11
93.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 10
50
+8
91.6%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jai Williams for 8 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+22
90.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Cedric Frazier for 22 yds to the GeoSo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
60.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22END OF GAME2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:15
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-24.2
TD · Q4 13:50
J.D. King run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)
+20.8
TD · Q4 6:42
Shai Werts run for 41 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)
+20.7