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NAVY

Navy 7 at Air Force 40

AF
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:22 · Joseph Carlson punt for 45 yds , Mark Walker returns for 9 yds to the Navy 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Home team on offense+0.4Pregame prior−14.6Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:58: Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK) — AF win probability +6.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 6:36: Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 35 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +6.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 32 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +4.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 11:45: Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 40 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +10.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:08: Matthew Murla run for 2 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK) — AF win probability +9.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NAVY 4th & 3 at AF 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    65.2%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:44AF 4th & 10 at NAVY 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:21NAVY 4th & 11 at NAVY 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:22AF 4th & 12 at AF 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:26NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:55AF 4th & 1 at AF 27, up 3
    Close callPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:36AF 4th & 10 at NAVY 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−5.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:36NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00AF 4th & 3 at NAVY 15, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.5%−0.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−8.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:45AF 4th & 4 at NAVY 23, up 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.6%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−8.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:45NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.0%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:44NAVY 4th & 14 at NAVY 36, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−2.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:19AF 4th & 3 at NAVY 41, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    76.8%−3.0
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:35NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 31, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:08NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 29, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:50NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:58AF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:08AF Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:14AF Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:50AF Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
32.7%
Tyger Goslin run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 0
0
32.7%
GOSLIN, Tyger rush for 7 yards to the NAVY33 (EURE, David), PENALTY NAVY personal foul off-setting, PENALTY AF personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+33
32.7%
Tyger Goslin pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 33 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
32.7%
NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+2
32.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 44
0
32.7%
Tyger Goslin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 44
+10
32.7%
Tyger Goslin run for 10 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
32.7%
Tyger Goslin pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:4934% → 36%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
34.2%
Timothy Jackson run for 9 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+5
34.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
34.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for 21 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
34.7%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
34.7%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-5
34.6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
34.5%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:44
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
36.3%
Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:2363% → 62%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
36.6%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
36.5%
Tyger Goslin run for 2 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-7
37.7%
Tyger Goslin sacked by George Silvanic and Alec Mock for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
38.3%
Daniel Davies punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0638% → 37%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
38.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 12
OWN 28
-5
37.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 17
OWN 23
0
37.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 17
OWN 23
+5
37.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 12
OWN 28
+9
37.3%
Joseph Carlson punt for 45 yds , Mark Walker returns for 9 yds to the Navy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
38.6%
Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
38.3%
Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to Ryan MitchellSimilar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+4
38.8%
Tyger Goslin pass complete to Chance Warren for 4 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
38.9%
Daniel Davies punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
39.1%
Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+2
39.1%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+2
38.7%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
38.4%
Joseph Carlson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Mark Walker at the Navy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:1359% → 64%
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
40.6%
CJ Williams run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+73
36.0%
Tyger Goslin pass complete to Myles Fells for 73 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5236% → 45%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
36.2%
Timothy Jackson run for 11 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
36.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+32
37.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 32 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
38.6%
Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+6
38.6%
Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
38.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+13
38.6%
Timothy Jackson run for 13 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9FUMBLE
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0057% → 59%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.8%
Tyger Goslin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.0%
CJ Williams run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
43.2%
Tyger Goslin run for 6 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
42.2%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-2
41.2%
Tyger Goslin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 30 Tyger Goslin fumbled, recovered by AFA Parker NorenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10FG
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:0146% → 52%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
46.4%
Timothy Jackson run for 12 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
46.4%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-2
46.4%
Timothy Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
45.5%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
51.7%
Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
51.2%
Tyger Goslin pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
49.3%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
50.3%
NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
51.6%
Tyger Goslin run for 3 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
52.0%
Daniel Davies punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 4:2854% → 62%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
53.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+3
53.6%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+6
52.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 6 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
53.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+5
55.6%
NAVY Penalty, Defensive offside (Tama Tuitele) to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
55.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+12
55.4%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 12 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
56.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Daniel Morris for 12 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
56.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Daniel Morris for 10 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
56.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
56.1%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+7
55.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 7 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
61.7%
Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13FG
7 plays · 52 yds · 3:1561% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
60.7%
Timothy Jackson run for 19 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+27
62.6%
Timothy Jackson run for 12 yds to the AIRFORCE 44 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Kevin Brennan) to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
63.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+1
63.0%
Timothy Jackson run for 1 yd to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+2
61.9%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+40
72.0%
Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 3:0130% → 23%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.6%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
69.4%
CJ Williams run for 6 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
69.1%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
69.7%
CJ Williams run for 6 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
68.7%
Tyger Goslin sacked by George Silvanic for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 17
OWN 33
0
69.9%
Tyger Goslin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 17
OWN 33
+3
76.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
76.9%
Daniel Davies punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:4579% → 80%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
78.5%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Daniel Morris for 7 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+5
78.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
79.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for 13 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
79.4%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
81.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the Navy 43 Timothy Jackson fumbled, forced by Tama Tuitele, recovered by AFA Kyle PattersonSimilar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+2
80.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
79.7%
Joseph Carlson punt for 24 yds, downed at the Navy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
81.4%
Tyger Goslin run for 1 yd to the Navy 18Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
81.7%
Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to CJ WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+13
82.2%
Tyger Goslin pass complete to Chance Warren for 13 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
80.0%
Tyger Goslin pass complete to Chance Warren for 5 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
79.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-7
79.9%
Tyger Goslin sacked by Alec Mock and Will Trawick for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
82.3%
Daniel Davies punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ben Peterson at the AFA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 3:2886% → 97%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
86.1%
Brad Roberts run for 17 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
87.1%
Jordan Gidrey sacked by J'arius Warren for a loss of 12 yards to the AFA 31 Jordan Gidrey fumbled, recovered by AFA Jordan Gidrey , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 31
+24
86.5%
Brad Roberts run for 24 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+29
87.7%
Brad Roberts run for 29 yds to the Navy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
87.9%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+12
87.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for 12 yds to the Navy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.4%
Matthew Murla run for 2 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.0%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
94.7%
Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
94.8%
Tyger Goslin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
95.1%
Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to Ryan Mitchell, broken up by Grant DonaldsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 2:1298% → 100%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
97.5%
Brad Roberts run for 12 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
97.5%
Brad Roberts run for 13 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
97.5%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20INT
8 plays · 52 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.8%
Maasai Maynor pass complete to CJ Williams for 5 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
99.8%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
99.8%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
99.8%
Maasai Maynor pass complete to Mark Walker for 9 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+10
99.7%
Nelson Smith run for 10 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+21
99.7%
Maasai Maynor run for 8 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Will Trawick) to the AFA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-62
99.7%
Maasai Maynor pass intercepted Corvan Taylor return for 62 yds to the Navy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+27
99.9%
Warren Bryan run for 27 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
99.9%
Bo Gross run for 4 yds to the Navy 7Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+5
99.9%
Bo Gross run for 5 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Bo Gross run for 1 yd to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Warren Bryan run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout AIR FORCE, clock 03:50 (Anth Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22END OF GAME
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
99.9%
Devon High run for 9 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
99.9%
Xavier Arline run for 8 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 2
OWN 45
-1
99.9%
Nelson Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+3
99.9%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the AFA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 11:45
Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 40 yd FG GOOD
+10
TD · Q4 12:08
Matthew Murla run for 2 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)
+9.5
FG · Q2 6:36
Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 35 yd FG GOOD
+6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com