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HOU

Houston 37 at Navy 21

NAVY
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:24 · Nelson Smith run for 21 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Pregame prior−4.1Home team on offense−48.8Score differential−28.2Garbage-time factor−16.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−10.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:08: Dalen Morris run for 6 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +4.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:02: Dalen Morris pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 60 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols PAT BLOCKED) — NAVY win probability +11.6 pts (now 33%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:53: Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 51 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +13.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:32: Kyle Porter run for 1 yd for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +7.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:06: Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for 33 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +9.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 9 of 9HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00HOU 4th & 20 at HOU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:31NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:35HOU 4th & 1 at NAVY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:35HOU 4th & 1 at NAVY 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.0%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:04HOU 4th & 14 at NAVY 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    77.5%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:47HOU 4th & 12 at NAVY 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.9%
    42% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:47NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:37HOU 4th & 6 at NAVY 28, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.1%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:43NAVY 4th & 13 at HOU 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:58NAVY 4th & 8 at HOU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−7.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:58HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:32NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:06NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.7%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:32NAVY 4th & 12 at HOU 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−1.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−3.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:24NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:24NAVY 4th & 2 at HOU 45, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 0:08NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:02NAVY Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:53HOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:32HOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:06HOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:24HOU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:07NAVY Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+23
13.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 8 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Diego Fagot) to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-11
13.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 4 yds to the Houst 34 HOUSTON Penalty, personal foul (Marquez Stevenson) to the Houst 19Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 21
OWN 19
-5
13.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (Nathaniel Dell) to the Houst 14Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 26
OWN 14
+1
13.2%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Houst 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 15
0
13.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 25
OWN 15
+5
13.2%
Kyle Porter run for 5 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 20
0
13.2%
Laine Wilkins punt for 62 yds, downed at the Navy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
14.4%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 19Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+5
14.4%
CJ Williams run for 5 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
14.3%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+20
14.3%
Daniel Davies punt for 45 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 20 yds to the Navy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3FG
14 plays · 33 yds · 4:3185% → 83%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
15.0%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Kyle PorterSimilar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
15.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 9 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
15.0%
Kyle Porter run for no gain to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+1
15.2%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
15.0%
Clayton Tune run for 16 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
14.9%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+4
14.9%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+2
15.0%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
15.1%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
14.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Tre'von Bradley, broken up by Michael McMorrisSimilar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-5
14.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (Marquez Stevenson) to the Navy 17Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 15
OPP 17
+1
15.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 1 yd to the Navy 16Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 14
OPP 16
0
15.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Tre'von BradleySimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 14
OPP 16
+33
17.3%
Dalton Witherspoon 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5617% → 24%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.8%
Dalen Morris run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
16.9%
Dalen Morris pass complete to CJ Williams for 8 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
17.1%
Dalen Morris run for 4 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
17.1%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
17.4%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Devin Mathews for 3 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+9
18.5%
Dalen Morris run for 9 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
19.0%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
18.9%
Dalen Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+41
17.9%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 41 yds to the Houst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
19.1%
Dalen Morris run for 2 yds to the Houst 6Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
23.7%
Dalen Morris run for 6 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 4:2178% → 75%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.9%
Kyle Porter run for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
21.5%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
21.7%
Kyle Porter run for 5 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
21.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 8 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+10
20.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for 10 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
20.7%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+5
20.6%
Kelan Walker run for 5 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
20.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel Dell, broken up by Cameron KinleySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-2
20.4%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 36
0
21.3%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 12
OPP 36
+53
24.8%
Dalton Witherspoon 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
25.0%
Dalen Morris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
24.8%
Myles Fells run for 3 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
24.3%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to Devin Mathews, broken up by Marcus JonesSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
23.8%
Daniel Davies punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:3976% → 78%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
50
+18
23.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 18 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
23.2%
TUNE, Clayton rush for 5 yards to the NAVY27, out-of-bounds (ADAMS, Terrell), PENALTY HOU holding (UNIJE, Reuben) 10 yards to the NAVY42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+5
24.3%
Kyle Porter run for 5 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 15
OPP 37
-2
24.4%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 17
OPP 39
+11
26.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 11 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
22.2%
Dalton Witherspoon 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3522% → 33%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.5%
Nelson Smith run for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
22.3%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
21.2%
Dalen Morris run for 3 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
21.7%
Dalen Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
21.6%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+60
33.1%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 60 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
32.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 19 yds Tre'von Bradley fumbled, forced by Mitchell West, recovered by Navy John MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:1935% → 34%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
34.8%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-3
34.8%
Dalen Morris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+1
33.6%
Dalen Morris run for 1 yd to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 8
OPP 44
-5
34.6%
NAVY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
33.7%
Daniel Davies punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 0:4463% → 78%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
36.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
35.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for 15 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
22.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 51 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0023% → 24%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+19
22.9%
Dalen Morris run for 19 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
24.9%
Dalen Morris run for 3 yds to the Navy 49 NAVY Penalty, illegal forward pass (Dalen Morris) to the Navy 44Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+1
23.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:0226% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
26.4%
Dalen Morris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+34
26.2%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 34 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
29.4%
Carlinos Acie run for 3 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+3
29.4%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+11
29.1%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 11 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
30.4%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
30.4%
Dalen Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
29.1%
Carlinos Acie run for no gain to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
29.2%
Bijan Nichols 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
27.5%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (Marquez Stevenson) to the Houst 19Similar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+20
27.7%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, targeting (Tama Tuitele) to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
25.9%
Logan Holgorsen pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 5 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
25.6%
Logan Holgorsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
28.3%
Laine Wilkins punt for 41 ydsSimilar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 5
OWN 44
-15
25.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, personal foul (Dennis Bardwell) to the Houst 29Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 20
OWN 29
+13
28.8%
Logan Holgorsen pass complete to Kyle Porter for 13 yds to the Houst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
29.0%
Dalen Morris pass intercepted Thabo Mwaniki return for no gain to the Navy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:2776% → 84%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
23.8%
Clayton Tune sacked by Diego Fagot for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 23Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+6
24.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 6 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+8
25.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 8 yds to the Navy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
23.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for 8 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.1%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
17.3%
Dalen Morris run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
17.7%
Dalen Morris run for 1 yd to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
17.0%
Carlinos Acie run for 6 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
18.0%
Carlinos Acie run for 1 yd to the Navy 37Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+2
17.8%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-3
17.5%
Dalen Morris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
16.2%
Daniel Davies punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:4683% → 95%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
16.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for no gain to the Houst 23Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
16.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+11
17.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 11 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
16.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+11
16.3%
Kyle Porter run for 11 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
14.9%
Bryson Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+16
15.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 16 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
14.8%
Clayton Tune run for 10 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
14.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel Dell, broken up by Tobe OkaforSimilar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
5.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for 33 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19MISSED FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 3:347% → 5%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
6.9%
Dalen Morris sacked by Donavan Mutin for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
6.8%
CJ Williams run for 5 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
7.0%
Dalen Morris run for 5 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
7.3%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+29
7.4%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Myles Fells for 29 yds to the NAVY 34 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
8.7%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Mark Walker for 8 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+10
9.1%
MORRIS, Dalen pass incomplete to WARREN, Chance, PENALTY HOU holding (MWANIKI, Thabo) 10 yards to the HOU16, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
7.0%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to Mark WalkerSimilar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-2
7.0%
CJ Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 18Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 12
OPP 18
0
6.3%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to Ryan MitchellSimilar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 12
OPP 18
+35
5.0%
Bijan Nichols 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 5:0896% → 100%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
3.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 14 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
3.7%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+4
3.4%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+3
3.1%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
3.0%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Tre'von BradleySimilar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
3.0%
Kyle Porter run for no gain to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+11
2.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 11 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
2.7%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+17
2.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 17 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
2.6%
TUNE, Clayton pass intercepted by CLEAR, Caleb at the NAVY0, CLEAR, Caleb return to the NAVY0, touchback, PENALTY NAVY offside (OKAFOR, Tobe) 5 yards to the NAVY25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
2.6%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-1
2.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+24
0.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 24 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:170% → 1%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.4%
Dalen Morris pass complete to CJ Williams for 7 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
0.4%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
0.4%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
0.4%
Dalen Morris sacked by Logan Hall for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+11
0.4%
Myles Fells run for 11 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
0.4%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+1
0.4%
Dalen Morris run for 1 yd to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
0.4%
MORRIS, Dalen pass incomplete to WALKER, Mark, PENALTY NAVY holding (FRANKLAND, Kip) 10 yards to the NAVY37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+2
0.4%
Dalen Morris run for 2 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+10
0.4%
Devon High run for 10 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+6
0.4%
Nelson Smith run for 6 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+21
0.4%
Nelson Smith run for 21 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
0.5%
Myles Fells run for 14 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, personal foul (Gervarrius Owens) to the Houst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.4%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to CJ Williams, broken up by Thabo MwanikiSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.3%
Dalen Morris pass complete to CJ Williams for 5 yds for a TD (D. Morris Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
0.8%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-1
0.9%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:53
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 51 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q2 4:02
Dalen Morris pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 60 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols PAT BLOCKED)
+11.6
TD · Q4 14:06
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for 33 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com