Try the model
BYU

BYU 43 at Houston 26

HOU
2020 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2020 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:50 · Laine Wilkins punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Home team on offense+8.1Pregame prior−1.5Score differential+0.9Garbage-time factor+4.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:01: Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 20 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +9.3 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 3:05: Clayton Tune run for 5 yds for a TD, (Clayton Tune intercepted ) — HOU win probability +13.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:53: Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +23.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 10:35: Zach Wilson pass complete to Masen Wake for 8 yds for a TD, (Zach Wilson pass to Tyler Allgeier for Two-Point Conversion) — BYU win probability +27.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:06: Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 18 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +12.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:53HOU 4th & 9 at BYU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:05HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:35HOU 4th & 18 at HOU 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:02BYU 4th & 26 at HOU 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:04BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:53BYU 4th & 10 at HOU 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  7. Q4 13:16BYU 4th & 30 at BYU 47, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−6.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:50HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 10, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:45HOU 4th & 16 at HOU 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−4.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:40BYU 4th & 2 at HOU 46, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−8.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%−4.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:43HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:53HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 17, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:34BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:42BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:01HOU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:42HOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:53BYU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:35BYU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    56.1%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    56.7%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:06BYU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−1.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:40BYU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:5042% → 45%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
42.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 19 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
42.6%
Kyle Porter run for 8 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+26
43.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 26 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
43.2%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the BYU 21Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+1
43.5%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the BYU 20Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+9
43.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 9 yds to the BYU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
43.9%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-6
44.1%
Kelan Walker run for a loss of 6 yards to the BYU 15Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+5
44.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kelan Walker for 5 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+27
44.6%
Dalton Witherspoon 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+78
43.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 78 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1043% → 43%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.1%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
43.0%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
42.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
42.7%
Laine Wilkins punt for 56 yds, downed at the BYU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:5957% → 61%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
43.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Masen Wake for 15 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
43.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+32
43.3%
Zach Wilson run for 32 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+35
42.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 35 yds to the Houst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.2%
Zach Wilson run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.2%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:4240% → 37%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
40.4%
Clayton Tune run for 8 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+3
40.8%
Kelan Walker run for 3 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
39.4%
Kelan Walker run for 3 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+16
39.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 16 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
39.6%
Kelan Walker run for 5 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
39.6%
Kelan Walker run for 3 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-1
39.4%
Kelan Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 3
OPP 41
-15
38.6%
Tune, Clayton pass complete to Singleton, Jeremy for 13 yards to the BYU28, PENALTY HOUSTON personal foul (Paul, Patrick) 15 yards to the HOUSTON44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 18
OWN 44
0
37.3%
Laine Wilkins punt for 32 yds, downed at the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:1863% → 64%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+27
37.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 12 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Donavan Mutin) to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
37.0%
Dax Milne run for 3 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+15
37.0%
Wilson, Zach pass incomplete to Romney, Gunner, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Williams, Damarion) 15 yards to the HOUSTON31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-9
36.8%
Zach Wilson sacked by Payton Turner for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 19
OPP 40
0
37.0%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 19
OPP 36
-14
37.2%
Katoa, Lopini rush for 4 yards to the HOUSTON36, PENALTY BYU illegal block 14 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 29
50
+3
36.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 3 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 13:02
4TH & 26
OPP 47
0
36.4%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Damarion Williams at the Houst 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 3:5037% → 47%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+16
36.6%
Kyle Porter run for 16 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
36.5%
Tune, Clayton pass complete to Stevenson, Marquez for 4 yards to the HOUSTON29, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Paul, Patrick) 10 yards to the HOUSTON15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+16
36.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 16 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
36.1%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
35.7%
Kyle Porter run for 8 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
36.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 23 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
37.6%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+11
37.5%
Kyle Porter run for 11 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
46.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 20 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5157% → 56%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.6%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
42.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for no gain to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
43.6%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+25
43.6%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 61 yds , Damarion Williams returns for 25 yds to the Houst 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:1044% → 55%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
43.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 7 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
44.8%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+25
44.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 25 yds to the HOUSTON 27 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+21
46.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 21 yds to the BYU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
46.4%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the BYU 5Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
46.5%
Bryson Smith run for no gain to the BYU 5Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
54.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 5 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10DOWNS
13 plays · 72 yds · 3:1948% → 50%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
51.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 19 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
49.1%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
49.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+5
49.2%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
48.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 13 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
47.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 19 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
46.8%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Masen WakeSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
46.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+9
49.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 9 yds to the Houst 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11END OF HALF
10 plays · 65 yds · 0:5854% → 65%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+11
54.4%
Kyle Porter run for 11 yds to the Houst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
54.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for 13 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
55.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 13 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
56.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 16 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
58.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
58.1%
Mulbah Car run for 4 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+9
57.5%
Clayton Tune run for 9 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
59.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+49
64.8%
Dalton Witherspoon 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12PUNT
13 plays · 34 yds · 5:0241% → 38%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
58.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 10 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
58.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
57.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 6 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
57.0%
Zach Wilson run for no gain to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 12:32
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+15
58.9%
Wilson, Zach pass incomplete to Romney, Gunner, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Williams, Damarion) 15 yards to the HOUSTON41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
56.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 1 yd to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-5
56.9%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Brady Christensen) to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+4
59.2%
Zach Wilson run for 4 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-5
59.0%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Blake Freeland) to the Houst 46Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 15
OPP 40
-4
60.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 6 yds to the Houst 40 BYU Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 19
50
+9
61.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 9 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 9:53
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
61.8%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13TD
18 plays · 98 yds · 6:3064% → 86%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
64.1%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Houst 6Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 6
OWN 6
0
63.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+20
62.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 20 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
65.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+12
65.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Cole McGowan for 12 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
67.5%
Clayton Tune sacked by Isaiah Kaufusi for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 32 Clayton Tune fumbled, recovered by HoustSimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+14
65.6%
Tune, Clayton pass incomplete, PENALTY BYU pass interference (Udo, George) 14 yards to the HOUSTON46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
68.7%
Marquez Stevenson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 16
OWN 40
0
67.1%
Tune, Clayton pass incomplete, PENALTY BYU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY HOUSTON Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Porter, Kyle) off-setting, NO PLAY (Micah Harper ejected for Targeting).Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+12
67.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Mulbah Car for 12 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+13
68.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 13 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
70.7%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+6
71.5%
Kyle Porter run for 6 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+4
70.2%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
71.8%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+16
71.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 16 yds to the BYU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
72.1%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the BYU 5Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
85.7%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds for a TD, (Clayton Tune intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0718% → 44%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
82.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 18 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
80.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Masen Wake for 19 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+37
79.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 37 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
78.7%
Zach Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 2Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 2:1141% → 34%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
59.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 10 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
58.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 11 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
56.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
56.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Brayden CosperSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-13
59.2%
Zach Wilson sacked by David Anenih for a loss of 13 yards to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 21
OPP 44
-4
65.6%
BYU Penalty, Delay of Game (-4 Yards) to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 25
OPP 48
-5
65.6%
BYU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BYU 47Similar
Q4 13:16
4TH & 30
OWN 47
0
65.8%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1068% → 68%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
67.5%
Kyle Porter run for 8 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 2
OWN 16
-8
68.2%
Tune, Clayton pass incomplete to Singleton, Jeremy, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference 8 yards to the HOUSTON8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-4
67.3%
Mutin, Donavan rush for 8 yards to the HOUSTON16, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Paul, Patrick) 4 yards to the HOUSTON4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+6
70.0%
Kyle Porter run for 6 yds to the Houst 10Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 8
OWN 10
0
69.0%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Christian TrahanSimilar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 8
OWN 10
0
68.1%
Laine Wilkins punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 1:0743% → 71%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
57.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 13 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
57.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
29.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Masen Wake for 8 yds for a TD, (Zach Wilson pass to Tyler Allgeier for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:4739% → 35%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
38.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-6
37.1%
Clayton Tune sacked by Zac Dawe for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 19Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
35.3%
Laine Wilkins punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dax Milne at the BYU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5070% → 69%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
30.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for no gain to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
30.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Keanu Hill for 9 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-1
28.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 46Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
31.5%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:5339% → 32%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
39.0%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Kyle PorterSimilar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
38.0%
Clayton Tune run for 9 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
36.8%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
38.2%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 11
OWN 30
-2
36.5%
Clayton Tune sacked by George Udo for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+4
32.9%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
32.3%
Laine Wilkins punt for 40 yds , Dax Milne returns for no gain to the BYU 43 Dax Milne fumbled, recovered by BYU HOUSTON Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the BYU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 1:2476% → 92%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
23.7%
Zach Wilson run for 24 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
20.2%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+20
20.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 20 yds to the Houst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
18.2%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
18.2%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-5
20.3%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Blake Freeland) to the Houst 18Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 15
OPP 18
+18
8.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 18 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:577% → 5%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
7.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for 3 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
7.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Kyle PorterSimilar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-4
6.5%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 17Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 11
OWN 17
0
5.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0695% → 99%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
5.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the Houst 14Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
1.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:072% → 2%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
2.1%
Chandler Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 22Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+3
2.2%
Chandler Smith run for 3 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-1
2.0%
Chandler Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:35
Zach Wilson pass complete to Masen Wake for 8 yds for a TD, (Zach Wilson pass to Tyler Allgeier for Two-Point Conversion)
-27.9
TD · Q3 0:53
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
-23
TD · Q3 3:05
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds for a TD, (Clayton Tune intercepted )
+13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com