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NAVY

Navy 27 at East Carolina 23

ECU
2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:10 · Mason Garcia pass complete to Tyler Snead for 11 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOne-score game
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2One-score game−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:03: Mason Garcia run for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +9.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:48: Dalen Morris run for 9 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols PAT MISSED) — NAVY win probability +10.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:51: Nelson Smith run for 29 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +16.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:00: Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +19.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:15: Rahjai Harris run for 80 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +17.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:13ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:21NAVY 4th & 1 at ECU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.9%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:44ECU 4th & 20 at NAVY 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:23ECU 4th & 6 at NAVY 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:23NAVY 4th & 18 at NAVY 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−1.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:06ECU 4th & 11 at NAVY 14, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:06NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:10ECU 4th & 2 at NAVY 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−1.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:43ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:41NAVY 4th & 4 at ECU 44, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−2.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:34ECU 4th & 14 at ECU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:51ECU 4th & 2 at NAVY 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    32.3%−4.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:00NAVY 4th & 1 at ECU 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.1%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    71.1%−3.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−10.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:15NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:27ECU 4th & 2 at NAVY 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%−1.5
    72% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−12.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:33ECU 4th & 13 at NAVY 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−3.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−10.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:16NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.4%−2.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:59NAVY 4th & 16 at ECU 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    83.6%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:21NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:03ECU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:48NAVY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:51NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:00NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:15ECU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
49.1%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+14
49.1%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Jamale Carothers for 14 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
49.1%
Dalen Morris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
49.1%
Dalen Morris pass intercepted Malik Fleming return for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
49.5%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECaro 12Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
49.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+1
49.4%
Mason Garcia run for 1 yd to the ECaro 17Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
49.3%
Jonn Young punt for 33 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 3:0651% → 53%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
50
+1
49.4%
Dalen Morris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 49Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+20
49.4%
Jamale Carothers run for 20 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
49.3%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
49.3%
Chance Warren run for 3 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+6
49.4%
Mark Walker run for 6 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+20
47.3%
Nelson Smith run for 20 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 3:3748% → 49%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
47.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Sean Bailey) to the ECaro 20Similar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+23
47.7%
Mason Garcia run for 23 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
48.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 8 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+1
48.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
48.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
48.6%
Mason Garcia pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 15 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
48.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 18 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
48.9%
Mason Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-5
48.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 15
OPP 18
-10
48.7%
GARCIA, Mason pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J., PENALTY ECU holding (STROTHER, Nshad) 10 yards to the NAVY28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 25
OPP 28
+5
48.5%
Mason Garcia run for 5 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 20
OPP 23
0
48.1%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 20
OPP 23
+40
48.5%
Jake Verity 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.1%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
49.0%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Navy 25 Jamale Carothers fumbled, forced by Rick D'Abreu, recovered by ECaro Elijah MorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6FG
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4751% → 51%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
50.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 13 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
50.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
50.7%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the Navy 8Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
50.2%
Mason Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
50.9%
Jake Verity 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.8%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
49.7%
Dalen Morris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-9
50.2%
Dalen Morris sacked by Chris Willis for a loss of 9 yards to the Navy 17Similar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
50.8%
Daniel Davies punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8MISSED FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:0552% → 51%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
52.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+4
52.8%
Mason Garcia run for 4 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+18
52.1%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 18 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
52.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the Navy 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-2
52.9%
Mason Garcia sacked by Nicholas Straw for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
52.3%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Cameron KinleySimilar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
50.9%
Jake Verity 31 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Tobe OkaforSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
49.4%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-3
48.8%
Dalen Morris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+2
50.2%
Dalen Morris run for 2 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 6
OWN 24
-4
50.7%
NAVY Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+9
50.9%
Daniel Davies punt for 33 yds , Tyler Snead returns for 9 yds to the Navy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:0753% → 64%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
53.1%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Audie Omotosho, broken up by Kevin BrennanSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
52.9%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Cameron KinleySimilar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+8
51.3%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 8 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+11
51.6%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Tyler Snead for 11 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
53.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 11 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
53.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 9 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+2
53.8%
Mason Garcia run for 2 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.5%
Mason Garcia run for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1541% → 55%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.6%
CJ Williams run for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
56.8%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+32
57.4%
Nelson Smith run for 32 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
54.8%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+2
54.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+14
55.7%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 14 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
45.5%
Dalen Morris run for 9 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:0553% → 55%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
53.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 29Similar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
53.0%
Mason Garcia run for 8 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
54.8%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Audie Omotosho, broken up by Kevin BrennanSimilar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
54.5%
Mason Garcia run for 6 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+1
55.3%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Blake Proehl for 1 yd to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
55.3%
Jonn Young punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:2748% → 49%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
51.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 5 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+5
51.3%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
51.1%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+1
50.7%
Myles Fells run for 1 yd to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+6
51.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 6 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0054% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
54.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 10 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
54.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+15
54.9%
GARCIA, Mason deep out pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J., PENALTY NAVY pass interference (KINLEY, Cameron) 15 yards to the NAVY49, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
57.3%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line Rahjai Harris fumbled, forced by Tama Tuitele, recovered by Navy Alefosio Saipaia , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0053% → 50%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
50
+3
47.2%
Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
47.2%
Dalen Morris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+1
47.7%
Dalen Morris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
50.2%
Daniel Davies punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-9
55.1%
Mason Garcia sacked by Diego Fagot for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 5Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 19
OWN 5
+5
54.8%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Blake Proehl for 5 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 14
OWN 10
0
53.7%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 14
OWN 10
+1
53.2%
Jonn Young punt for 50 yds , Mark Walker returns for 1 yd to the Navy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 1:2153% → 68%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
46.7%
MORRIS, Dalen rush QK for 11 yards to the ECU48 (D'ABREU, Rick), PENALTY NAVY illegal block off-setting, PENALTY ECU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
49.3%
Tyger Goslin run for 6 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+24
48.5%
Nelson Smith run for 24 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
32.3%
Nelson Smith run for 29 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0038% → 40%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
37.7%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 13 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
38.5%
Mason Garcia run for 14 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
41.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 47Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
40.6%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Tyler Snead for 6 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+2
41.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 2
OPP 45
-5
40.3%
Mason Garcia run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
13 plays · 50 yds · 5:3769% → 91%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
50
+1
30.6%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 49Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+14
30.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 14 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
29.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 6 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+2
29.8%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+4
30.6%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
29.8%
Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to Myles FellsSimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
30.0%
Tyger Goslin run for 7 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+4
30.6%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
29.8%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
29.8%
Tyger Goslin run for 6 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
30.6%
Tyger Goslin run for 1 yd to the ECaro 3Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
8.6%
Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 84 yds · 0:4516% → 33%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
15.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+80
32.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 80 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.4%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
28.1%
Tyger Goslin run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.9%
Tyger Goslin run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
29.3%
Daniel Davies punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 5:5432% → 38%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
32.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+20
32.1%
Tyler Snead run for 20 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
36.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+8
37.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 8 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
39.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+12
38.2%
Mason Garcia run for 12 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
37.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 22 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ECaro Mason Garcia , return for no gain to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+3
35.0%
Mason Garcia run for 3 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
39.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-5
39.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ECaro Mason GarciaSimilar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 11
OPP 20
-2
36.5%
Mason Garcia run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+39
38.3%
Jake Verity 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23PUNT
18 plays · 32 yds · 4:3472% → 88%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
27.8%
Nelson Smith run for 7 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
26.6%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
26.2%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
25.1%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+1
20.7%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+2
19.2%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
17.1%
Tyger Goslin run for 2 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+15
14.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 15 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
12.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 36Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
8.6%
CJ Williams run for no gain to the ECaro 36Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 9
OPP 36
-2
9.3%
Chance Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 11
OPP 38
-5
11.3%
NAVY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 16
OPP 43
0
12.1%
Daniel Davies punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
14.1%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+11
13.9%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Tyler Snead for 11 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
14.4%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Michael McMorrisSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
14.0%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Tyler Snead for 16 yds to the ECaro 47 lat. to Rahjai Harris for 5 yds Rahjai Harris fumbled, recovered by Navy Jackson PerkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:00
Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-19.9
TD · Q4 14:15
Rahjai Harris run for 80 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
+17.1
TD · Q3 8:51
Nelson Smith run for 29 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com