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ECU

East Carolina 17 at Cincinnati 55

CIN
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2020 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:48 · Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+44.4Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Blowout margin+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:52: Holton Ahlers pass intercepted for a TD Jarell White return for 26 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +1.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:36: Keaton Mitchell run for 18 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +2.9 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:23: Jerome Ford run for 24 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +2.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:18: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 45 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +3.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:32: Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +2.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 1 of 4ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:48ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:10ECU 4th & 15 at ECU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:11ECU 4th & 5 at midfield, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:26CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 11, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:25ECU 4th & 6 at CIN 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:20CIN 4th & 3 at ECU 45, up 25
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:32ECU 4th & 16 at ECU 6, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:25CIN 4th & 3 at ECU 20, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:15ECU 4th & 16 at midfield, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:18ECU 4th & 5 at CIN 16, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:51CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 28, up 32
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:14CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:52CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:36ECU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:23CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:18CIN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:32CIN Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:29CIN Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:41CIN Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:17ECU Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:10CIN Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:055% → 5%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 2 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
94.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 7 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
94.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
94.6%
Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 4:2595% → 94%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
94.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ethan Wright for 8 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 29
-2
94.4%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 27 Desmond Ridder fumbled, forced by Chris Willis, recovered by Cincy Gerrid DoaksSimilar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+7
94.3%
Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
94.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+13
94.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 13 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
94.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard TaylorSimilar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
94.0%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 6
50
+7
93.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
93.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 10 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
94.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 33 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:576% → 6%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
93.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Myjai SandersSimilar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
93.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Ahmad GardnerSimilar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+16
93.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 16 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
93.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 2 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
93.6%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-7
93.6%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Jarell White for a loss of 7 yards to the ECaro 47Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
93.6%
Luke Larsen punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4FUMBLE
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:0494% → 93%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
93.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 4 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 22
-7
93.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 22 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Renfro) to the Cincy 12Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+36
93.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for 36 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
93.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 20 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
93.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for 5 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-5
93.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Jake Renfro) to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
93.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Gerrid DoaksSimilar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+26
93.3%
Desmond Ridder run for 26 yds to the ECaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
93.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the ECaro 3Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
93.2%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 5 Desmond Ridder fumbled, recovered by ECaro Chris WillisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5INT TD
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:017% → 6%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
92.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+4
92.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 14Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+3
92.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
92.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
92.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 4
OWN 23
-26
93.8%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted for a TD Jarell White return for 26 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:306% → 6%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
93.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 14 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
93.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+2
93.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 5
50
0
93.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Coby BryantSimilar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 5
50
0
93.7%
Luke Larsen punt for 47 yds, downed at the Cincy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3894% → 94%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
94.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Cincy 4Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+7
94.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 7 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 2
OWN 11
0
93.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the Cincy 11Similar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 2
OWN 11
0
93.7%
James Smith punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:437% → 10%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
93.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 14 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+26
93.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 26 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
90.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 18 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:0392% → 95%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
91.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
91.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+16
91.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 16 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
92.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 20 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
92.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 11 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
94.6%
Jerome Ford run for 24 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:586% → 7%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
93.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Cole Smith) to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
93.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 15 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
93.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+5
93.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 5 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
93.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-1
92.9%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 15Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
93.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+32
92.1%
Jake Verity 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+15
92.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Myjai Sanders) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11TD
2 plays · 45 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
95.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 45 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:355% → 5%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.8%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Johnson, C.J., PENALTY CINCINNATI holding (Gardner, Ahmad) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
94.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
94.6%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted James Wiggins return for no gain to the Cincy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:5996% → 98%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
95.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+12
95.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 12 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
95.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 15 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
95.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for 8 yds to the ECaro 14Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+5
95.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 5 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
95.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the ECaro 7Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:535% → 5%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
94.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
94.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:2699% → 99%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
98.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 16 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
98.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 9 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-4
98.6%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Rick D'Abreu for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 47Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+2
98.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
98.7%
James Smith punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:422% → 2%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
98.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+3
98.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 3
OWN 19
-13
98.5%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Ethan Tucky for a loss of 13 yards to the ECaro 6Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 16
OWN 6
+8
98.3%
Luke Larsen punt for 42 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 8 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:5999% → 99%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
99.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ethan Wright for 13 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jordan Jones, broken up by Ja'Quan McMillianSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
99.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+7
99.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 7 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 3
OPP 20
0
99.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Gerrid DoaksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:031% → 1%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
98.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 10 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
98.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+15
98.6%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Hatfield, Jsi, PENALTY CINCINNATI face mask (Hicks, Ja'Von) 15 yards to the EASTCRLINA46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
98.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+5
98.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
98.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the Cincy 43Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
98.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-7
98.8%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Malik Vann for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 16
50
0
98.6%
Luke Larsen punt for 35 yds, downed at the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 5:4099% → 100%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 4 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+9
99.2%
Tre Tucker run for 9 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-14
99.3%
Ford, Jerome rush for 8 yards to the CINCINNATI36, PENALTY CINCINNATI personal foul (O'Quinn, Dylan) 14 yards to the CINCINNATI14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 24
OWN 14
+1
99.3%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Cincy 15Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 23
OWN 15
+27
99.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 27 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
99.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 7 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+7
99.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 7 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
99.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 8 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+10
99.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 10 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
99.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 14 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 12 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20INT
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:570% → 0%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
99.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 7 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+22
99.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 22 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.8%
Jsi Hatfield run for 2 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-1
99.8%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Ty Van Fossen for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+22
99.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 7 yds to the CINCINNATI 47 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Ethan Tucky) to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+8
99.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 8 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+2
99.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+3
99.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 5
OPP 16
-24
99.8%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted Coby Bryant return for 24 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:31100% → 100%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-11
99.9%
Bryant, Ben pass complete to Tucker, Tre for 30 yards to the EASTCRLINA43, PENALTY CINCINNATI holding (Cooper, Jeremy) 11 yards to the CINCINNATI16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+7
99.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 7 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
99.9%
Ben Bryant run for 5 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+29
99.9%
Joel Dublanko run for 29 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
99.9%
Jerome Ford run for 20 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
99.9%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+9
99.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 9 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
99.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Jones for 11 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 5:080% → 0%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
100.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+15
100.0%
Mason Garcia run for 1 yd to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Face Mask (14 yards) (Brody Ingle) to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
100.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+7
100.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 7 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
100.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+2
100.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+5
100.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
100.0%
Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+10
100.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 10 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
100.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+12
100.0%
Mason Garcia run for 12 yds to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
100.0%
Mason Garcia run for 1 yd to the Cincy 1Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
100.0%
Cameron Young run for 75 yds for a TD CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (James Hudson) to the ECaro 18 (Cole Smith PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:18
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 45 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q2 10:36
Keaton Mitchell run for 18 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
-2.9
TD · Q2 8:23
Jerome Ford run for 24 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
+2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com