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HOU

Houston 10 at Cincinnati 38

CIN
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2020 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:39 · Desmond Ridder pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 12 yds to the Houst 13 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Home team on offense+5.0Pregame prior+20.6Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor+1.3Blowout margin−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:53: Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +4.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:17: Kyle Porter run for 3 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +7.8 pts (now 23%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:40: Desmond Ridder run for 32 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +5.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:13: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 4 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +3.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 5:48: Cole Smith 33 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +1.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:11HOU 4th & 5 at CIN 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:28HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:50CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:29HOU 4th & 12 at HOU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:06CIN 4th & 10 at HOU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:49HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:39CIN 4th & 3 at HOU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    79.7%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−3.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:28HOU 4th & 2 at CIN 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−0.5
    84% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:38HOU 4th & 9 at CIN 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−2.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:40CIN 4th & 2 at HOU 24, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−4.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:48CIN 4th & 5 at HOU 15, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−3.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:04HOU 4th & 8 at midfield, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:09CIN 4th & 4 at HOU 46, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:18HOU 4th & 13 at CIN 41, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:33CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 32, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:56HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 23, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:53HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 33, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5HOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:51CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:53CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:17HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:40CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:13CIN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:15CIN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:3619% → 20%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
80.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 7 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
80.5%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
80.4%
Kyle Porter run for 5 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
80.3%
Kyle Porter run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
50
+4
80.1%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
79.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 2 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-1
79.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Mulbah Car for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
79.6%
Laine Wilkins punt for 29 yds, downed at the Cincy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 2:1580% → 81%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
79.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for 5 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
79.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 4 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+72
79.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 72 yds to the Houst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
79.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Houst 2Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1220% → 19%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
80.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+1
80.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 1 yd to the Houst 20Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+4
80.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 4 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
80.7%
Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3881% → 80%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
80.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 15
OWN 26
-2
80.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 17
OWN 24
0
80.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 17
OWN 24
+15
80.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 15 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 2
OWN 39
-5
80.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+13
80.1%
James Smith punt for 50 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 13 yds to the Houst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 3:0320% → 20%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
80.3%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+9
80.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 9 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
79.9%
Kyle Porter run for no gain to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-9
80.0%
Clayton Tune sacked by Ahmad Gardner for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 19
OWN 33
+7
80.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for 7 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 2:29
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
80.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:5580% → 80%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
80.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 8 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+14
80.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 14 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
80.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 15 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
80.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
80.9%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Houst 48Similar
Q1 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
80.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
79.7%
James Smith punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:1220% → 20%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
79.8%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-4
79.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+22
80.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 22 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
79.1%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-5
79.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 13
OWN 38
-2
79.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Mulbah Car for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 15
OWN 36
0
80.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
80.3%
Laine Wilkins punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3580% → 86%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 11 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
80.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 16 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
81.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+16
80.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 16 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
81.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 37Similar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+1
80.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 14
OPP 36
+11
80.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 11 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
80.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+12
80.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 12 yds to the Houst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
81.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Houst 10Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
85.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1415% → 23%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
84.6%
Kyle Porter run for 8 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
84.2%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+34
84.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 34 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
83.4%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Cincy 21Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+3
83.5%
Clayton Tune run for 3 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+4
84.1%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+11
84.5%
Kyle Porter run for 11 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.7%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2781% → 88%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
80.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 14 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
81.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+9
81.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for 9 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
81.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for 13 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
82.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+32
88.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 32 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 0:5114% → 15%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+54
86.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 54 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
84.0%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Cincy 10Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
84.0%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Mulbah CarSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
85.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Bryson SmithSimilar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
84.7%
Dalton Witherspoon 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 0:0987% → 91%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+48
86.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for 48 yds to the Houst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
87.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the Houst 4Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 4 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
91.3%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted, touchback. Hasaan Hypolite return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14FG
19 plays · 60 yds · 8:5790% → 97%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
90.0%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
90.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
92.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 11 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
93.2%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
93.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 46Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-2
93.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 44 TEAM fumbled, recovered by CincySimilar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+12
93.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 12 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
94.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Young Jr.Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
94.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 3 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+9
94.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 9 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
94.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 8 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
94.7%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
94.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+4
94.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
95.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
95.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+3
95.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
96.8%
Cole Smith 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:364% → 3%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 11 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
96.8%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
97.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 3 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+4
97.1%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
97.1%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 8
50
0
97.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Cole McGowanSimilar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 8
50
0
97.2%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:04
4TH & 8
50
0
97.2%
Laine Wilkins punt for 35 yds, downed at the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 3:3498% → 100%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
97.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 9 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+1
97.7%
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 7 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
98.3%
Jerome Ford run for 15 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
98.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
98.5%
Tre Tucker run for 9 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
98.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+4
98.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
98.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard TaylorSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+18
98.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 18 yds to the Houst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 12 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:280% → 0%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.8%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 24Similar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
99.8%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy Singleton for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-2
99.8%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted Darrick Forrest return for 2 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
99.8%
Jerome Ford run for 9 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 1
OPP 43
-5
99.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+2
99.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Jerome Ford for 2 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+39
99.8%
James Smith punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 14 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (7 Yards) to the Houst 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:270% → 0%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
99.9%
Mulbah Car run for 9 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+24
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 24 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 11 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 4 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
99.9%
Kyle Porter run for 7 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 13
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Ke'Andre StreetSimilar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
99.9%
Jerome Ford run for 16 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 2 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 2 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 4
OWN 32
+54
99.9%
James Smith punt for 44 yds, downed at the CINCINNATI 24 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Houst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 19 yds · 3:120% → 0%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
99.9%
Chandler Smith run for 9 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 1
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Chandler Smith run for no gain to the Houst 23Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+2
100.0%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Chandler Smith run for no gain to the Houst 25Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
100.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Chandler Smith for 11 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Chandler SmithSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-3
100.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 33Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Laine Wilkins punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:25100% → 100%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
100.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the Cincy 15Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
100.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:17
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q2 1:40
Desmond Ridder run for 32 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q2 7:53
Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com