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CIN

Cincinnati 36 at UCF 33

UCF
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2020 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:14 · James Smith punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Home team on offense+2.9Pregame prior−8.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:23: Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CIN win probability +11.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:59: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 19 yds for a TD (Dillon Gabriel pass to Marlon Williams for Two-Point Conversion) — UCF win probability +20.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:07: Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +27.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:15: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 7 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +16.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:27: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 10 yds for a TD (Dillon Gabriel pass to Jacob Harris for Two-Point Conversion) — UCF win probability +34.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:10CIN 4th & 7 at UCF 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:12UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:44CIN 4th & 24 at CIN 11, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−1.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:42UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:14CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:20UCF 4th & 14 at UCF 17, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:00CIN 4th & 5 at UCF 40, down 11
    Close callPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    48.8%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:59UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 38, up 11
    Close callPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:45UCF 4th & 5 at CIN 23, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:14CIN 4th & 9 at UCF 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−5.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:06UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−1.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:29CIN 4th & 5 at UCF 5, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−15.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:12CIN 4th & 7 at UCF 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    38.7%−2.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:29UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−3.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:10CIN 4th & 1 at UCF 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.6%−5.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−18.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:01CIN 4th & 1 at UCF 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−9.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−31.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 4CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 12:44UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:39UCF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:37CIN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:23CIN Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    63.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:59UCF Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    59.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:07CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:15CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:27UCF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    22.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:1139% → 41%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
39.3%
Gabriel, Dillon pass incomplete, PENALTY CINCINNATI offside (Taylor, Jabari) 5 yards to the UCF32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
39.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 6 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
39.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
39.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 3 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+15
39.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 15 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
40.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+41
40.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 41 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
41.1%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2FG
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:0759% → 59%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
41.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 18 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
40.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 14 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
41.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-1
41.6%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
42.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Gerrid DoaksSimilar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
41.3%
Cole Smith 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5341% → 42%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
41.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.2%
Gabriel, Dillon pass incomplete, PENALTY CINCINNATI offside (Scott, Tyler) 5 yards to the UCF30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
41.4%
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
41.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 46 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 1 yd to the Cincy 22 Ryan Montgomery fumbled, recovered by UCF Amari JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:2243% → 46%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
42.7%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+3
42.7%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+6
42.5%
Otis Anderson run for 6 yds to the Cincy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
43.1%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 6 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Face Mask (3 yards) (Curtis Brooks) to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
43.6%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 6Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
45.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:4555% → 53%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
44.9%
Michael Young Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-9
45.4%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Tre'mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 10Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 25
OWN 10
+1
46.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd to the Cincy 11Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 24
OWN 11
0
46.9%
James Smith punt for 56 yds , Otis Anderson returns for no gain to the UCF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5747% → 47%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
47.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
47.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+7
46.9%
Dillon Gabriel run for 7 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 3
OWN 40
-5
47.3%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Lokahi Pauole) to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+2
47.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 46 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 2 yds to the Cincy 36 Ryan Montgomery fumbled, recovered by Cincy Justin Harris UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Anthony Montalvo) to the Cincy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1653% → 50%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
47.0%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
47.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
49.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
49.6%
James Smith punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:4049% → 49%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-7
49.3%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Curtis Brooks for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 14Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+3
49.2%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 14
OWN 17
0
49.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 14
OWN 17
0
49.4%
Andrew Osteen punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1251% → 49%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
49.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 4 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
49.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+1
49.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
50.8%
James Smith punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 2:4651% → 56%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
50.7%
Bentavious Thompson run for 3 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 11
-1
51.6%
Bentavious Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 10Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+5
51.1%
Gabriel, Dillon pass incomplete to Williams, Marlon, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Bush, Arquon) 5 yards to the UCF15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
51.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 5 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+4
52.2%
Bentavious Thompson run for 4 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+6
52.1%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
52.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 5 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
54.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+3
54.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 3 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+8
55.8%
Andrew Osteen punt for 43 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 8 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 1:1044% → 52%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
56.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 3 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
56.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+15
57.3%
UCF Penalty, Roughing Passer (Landon Woodson) to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
56.2%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Aaron Robinson) to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
55.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 11 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
54.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
47.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 29 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:5050% → 52%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
49.7%
Otis Anderson run for 22 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
51.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
51.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 2 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+13
51.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 13 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
52.5%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+1
52.6%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the Cincy 23Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
52.7%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the Cincy 23Similar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 5
OPP 23
0
51.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 5:1647% → 50%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
52.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 22 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
51.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-5
51.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+34
52.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for 34 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
49.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+4
50.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+7
52.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 7 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
50.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the UCF 9Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
51.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
53.0%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Tatum Bethune for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 9Similar
Q2 3:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
49.6%
Cole Smith 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5453% → 52%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.3%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
52.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-6
52.1%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Darrian Beavers for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
51.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:3549% → 66%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+35
50.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 35 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
45.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard TaylorSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
45.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 12 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
33.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 1:1338% → 51%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
38.0%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
38.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre Nixon UCF Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
37.0%
Dillon Gabriel run for 9 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
38.8%
Gabriel, Dillon pass incomplete to Nixon, Tre, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Bryant, Coby) 15 yards to the CINCINNATI49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
41.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 6 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-10
41.5%
Dillon Gabriel run for 5 yds to the UCF 38 UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Lokahi Pauole) to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
40.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 6 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+13
41.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 13 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
43.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 9 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
43.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+6
41.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 6 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+36
50.9%
Daniel Obarski 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
42.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18FG
18 plays · 87 yds · 8:2557% → 66%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-5
42.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Leonard Taylor) to the Cincy 3Similar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 15
OWN 3
+10
42.7%
Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+20
42.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 20 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
41.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
41.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
40.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 5 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
40.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 9 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+3
39.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
39.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 5 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+15
39.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 15 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
38.6%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
38.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+20
40.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 20 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
38.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 3Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
38.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
40.0%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 5Similar
Q3 6:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
33.8%
Cole Smith 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:2137% → 62%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
36.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 16 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
39.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 8 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+8
40.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 8 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
40.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 11 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
42.0%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+4
42.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 4 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+5
39.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for 5 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
42.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
42.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
62.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 19 yds for a TD (Dillon Gabriel pass to Marlon Williams for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:3542% → 41%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
59.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+17
60.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 17 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
56.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 11 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
54.6%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-5
54.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (James Hudson) to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
56.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard TaylorSimilar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+4
58.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 0:12
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
59.4%
James Smith punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:5261% → 65%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
60.5%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the UCF 12Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
60.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+10
58.5%
Dillon Gabriel run for 10 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
65.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 1 yd to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-20
64.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted Darrick Forrest return for 20 yds to the UCF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:5645% → 72%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
54.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
55.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3037% → 34%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
37.0%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
36.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
34.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
33.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 5:0568% → 93%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
32.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 14 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
29.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+20
27.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 20 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
26.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
26.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 7 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+2
27.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
28.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
24.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 7 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+10
23.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for 10 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
6.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 7 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 2:3713% → 49%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
12.6%
Otis Anderson run for 8 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
13.4%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
11.3%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
10.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+25
10.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 25 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
13.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
12.7%
Bentavious Thompson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-5
12.4%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Darrian Beavers and Curtis Brooks for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 11
OPP 41
+15
10.2%
Gabriel, Dillon pass incomplete to O'Keefe, Ryan, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Bush, Arquon) 15 yards to the CINCINNATI26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
15.5%
Bentavious Thompson run for 6 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+10
14.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for 10 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
14.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
48.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 10 yds for a TD (Dillon Gabriel pass to Jacob Harris for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26FUMBLE
15 plays · 57 yds · 4:1973% → 94%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
27.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 19 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
22.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 18 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
19.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 8 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+4
17.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
11.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+10
9.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
9.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
8.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the UCF 1Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the UCF 1Similar
Q4 0:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-7
6.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 8 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Cincy Desmond RidderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:27
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 10 yds for a TD (Dillon Gabriel pass to Jacob Harris for Two-Point Conversion)
+34.2
TD · Q4 13:07
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
-27
TD · Q3 3:59
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 19 yds for a TD (Dillon Gabriel pass to Marlon Williams for Two-Point Conversion)
+20.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com