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UCF

UCF 44 at Houston 21

HOU
2020 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2020 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+8HOU 29.2%Kyle Porter run for 1 yd for a TD,(Two-Point Conversion failed )AWAY 23 - HOME 13 · Q3 6:16
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:16 · Kyle Porter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Home team on offense−9.1Score differential−5.9Pregame prior−3.4Garbage-time factor−5.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:15: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 34 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +5.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:59: Bentavious Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +5.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:16: Kyle Porter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — HOU win probability +8.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:38: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 36 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +12.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:03: Greg McCrae run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +4.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00HOU 4th & 20 at HOU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:59UCF 4th & 13 at HOU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:35HOU 4th & 10 at UCF 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    44.3%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:59HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 46, down 10
    Close callPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:20UCF 4th & 6 at HOU 7, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:38HOU 4th & 18 at UCF 18, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−1.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:45UCF 4th & 11 at HOU 11, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−8.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:45HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 41, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:20UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 47, up 16
    Close callPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:36HOU 4th & 2 at UCF 4, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−1.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−9.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:16UCF 4th & 18 at UCF 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−4.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:25HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:55UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:42HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 0 of 2UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 2:15UCF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:59UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:16HOU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    28.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    28.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:38UCF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:03UCF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:17HOU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:36UCF Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
40.4%
Clayton Tune run for 17 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
40.4%
Kyle Porter run for 5 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
40.4%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+10
40.4%
Clayton Tune run for 10 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
40.4%
UCF Penalty, Defensive offside (Landon Woodson) to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 38
-9
40.4%
Clayton Tune sacked by Cam Goode for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+2
40.4%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 45
-3
40.4%
Clayton Tune sacked by Richie Grant for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 48
-5
40.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 47Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 47
0
40.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 2:5558% → 58%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
41.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 4 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+49
41.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 49 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
41.0%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
41.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jake Hescock for no gain to the Houst 22Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+8
41.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jake Hescock for 8 yds to the Houst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
41.0%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the Houst 11Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
41.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 7
OPP 11
-6
41.4%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Atlias Bell for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 17Similar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 13
OPP 17
+34
41.9%
Daniel Obarski 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:2442% → 42%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
41.6%
Kyle Porter run for 18 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
42.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 12 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
42.5%
Kyle Porter run for 6 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-6
42.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
41.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
41.5%
Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4FUMBLE TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:2558% → 54%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
42.3%
Otis Anderson run for 5 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+10
42.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 10 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
42.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
42.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 4 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+34
45.7%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Payton Turner for a loss of 8 yards Dillon Gabriel fumbled, recovered by Houst Grant Stuard , return for 0 yards , return for 34 yds, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:4854% → 59%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
46.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 11
OWN 21
-2
46.2%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by D'Anthony Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 19Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+5
46.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive offside (D'Anthony Jones) to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+42
46.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 42 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
40.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 34 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6INT
13 plays · 51 yds · 2:1542% → 44%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
42.1%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
42.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Willie Smith IIISimilar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 8
OWN 0
0
41.4%
TUNE, Clayton middle pass complete to BRADLEY, Tre'Vo for 17 yards to the HOU48 (MCMILLIAN, J.), PENALTY UCF holding off-setting, PENALTY HOU pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+21
41.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 21 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
43.6%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
44.2%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+9
43.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 9 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
44.2%
Mulbah Car run for 8 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+6
44.8%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
44.8%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
44.8%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-16
44.1%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted Eriq Gilyard return for 16 yds to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 1:4058% → 65%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
42.2%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+11
42.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 11 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
41.2%
Otis Anderson run for 16 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
40.9%
GABRIEL, Dillon overthrown pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Mar., PENALTY HOU illegal formation 5 yards to the HOU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 5
OPP 35
0
40.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'Keefe, broken up by Damarion WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+7
40.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Bentavious Thompson for 7 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+27
40.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 27 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
35.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 14 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
35.8%
Mulbah Car run for no gain to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
35.7%
Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
36.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Keith Corbin, broken up by Aaron RobinsonSimilar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+50
35.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds, downed at the HOUSTON 9 UCF Penalty, Offensive holding (Davonte Brown) to the UCF 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9FG
15 plays · 89 yds · 3:4664% → 71%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
36.5%
Greg McCrae run for 8 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+4
36.4%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
36.2%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+6
36.4%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+38
36.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 38 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
31.7%
Otis Anderson run for 12 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
31.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 7 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
31.3%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Houst 17Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+6
31.7%
Otis Anderson run for 6 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
31.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jake Hescock for 4 yds to the Houst 7Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
31.3%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Houst 7Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
31.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon Robinson, broken up by Logan HallSimilar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
28.7%
Daniel Obarski 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:4225% → 25%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
24.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 24 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
25.8%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
25.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 7 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+6
25.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 6 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+32
26.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 32 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
26.9%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 9Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
28.0%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Christian Trahan, broken up by Tatum BethuneSimilar
Q2 2:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-9
26.8%
Clayton Tune sacked by Noah Hancock for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
+35
24.5%
Dalton Witherspoon 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 1:1976% → 82%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
24.0%
Bentavious Thompson run for 18 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
23.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 7 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+32
22.7%
Bentavious Thompson run for 32 yds to the Houst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
21.6%
Bentavious Thompson run for no gain to the Houst 23Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
21.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+11
22.1%
Dillon Gabriel run for 11 yds to the Houst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
21.6%
GABRIEL, Dillon sideline left pass incomplete to ROBINSON, J., PENALTY HOU pass interference (WILLIAMS, Damar) 10 yards to the HOU2, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
21.4%
UCF Penalty, false start (Samuel Jackson) to the Houst 7Similar
Q2 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-14
21.6%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Grant Stuard for a loss of 14 yards to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
0
22.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 0
OPP 21
+38
18.2%
Daniel Obarski 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
23.7%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 2:1580% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
20.3%
Otis Anderson run for 46 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
18.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
18.9%
Otis Anderson run for 11 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
18.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 11 yds to the Houst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
18.8%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the Houst 6Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
18.8%
UCF Penalty, false start (Brett Bell) to the Houst 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
18.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon Robinson, broken up by Deontay AndersonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
19.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 12:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
18.8%
Daniel Obarski 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
21.1%
Kyle Porter run for 5 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
21.4%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete, broken up by Landon WoodsonSimilar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+10
20.9%
Clayton Tune run for 10 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
21.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 1 yd to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
21.4%
Kyle Porter run for 5 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
22.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Tre'von BradleySimilar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
22.2%
Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 33 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+26
17.0%
Greg McCrae run for 26 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
15.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
16.1%
Dillon Gabriel run for 7 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
16.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Greg McCraeSimilar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
17.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 3:2019% → 29%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
18.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 20 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
19.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel Dell, broken up by Josh CeliscarSimilar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
19.0%
Clayton Tune run for 11 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
20.7%
Mulbah Car run for 10 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
21.2%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+30
21.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 30 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
21.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
21.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+8
21.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 8 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q3 9:36
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+3
21.2%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.2%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
25.2%
Bentavious Thompson run for 8 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+3
24.3%
Bentavious Thompson run for 3 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
24.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 41 Dillon Gabriel fumbled, recovered by UCF Dillon GabrielSimilar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
24.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-6
25.8%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by David Anenih for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
27.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 45 yds, downed at the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
23.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 5 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
24.5%
Clayton Tune run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
23.4%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel Dell, broken up by Divaad WilsonSimilar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
22.1%
Laine Wilkins punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
22.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
22.7%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
22.2%
Dillon Gabriel run for no gain to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 2:55
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+17
23.9%
Andrew Osteen punt for 49 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 17 yds to the Houst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
22.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Tre'von Bradley, broken up by Tatum BethuneSimilar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
22.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Christian Trahan, broken up by Landon WoodsonSimilar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
21.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Tre'von Bradley, broken up by Corey ThorntonSimilar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+30
20.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds, downed at the HOUSTON 27 HOUSTON Penalty, kick catching interference (Art Green) to the UCF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:4079% → 93%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
21.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
21.5%
Greg McCrae run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 2
50
+4
21.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 4 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
20.6%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+7
20.2%
Greg McCrae run for 7 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
7.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 36 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22INT
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:0011% → 13%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
11.2%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
11.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q4 14:38
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+16
10.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 16 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
12.3%
Kyle Porter run for no gain to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+16
12.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 16 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
13.7%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+4
13.9%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 14:38
3RD & 3
OPP 25
-25
13.2%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted Richie Grant return for 25 yds to the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0294% → 99%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
6.2%
Otis Anderson run for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
6.2%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+18
6.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 33 yds to the HOUSTON 36 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, unnecessary roughness (Marlon Williams) to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
5.8%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Jamykal Neal and Atlias Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 11
OWN 48
-5
5.9%
UCF Penalty, encroachment (Jaylon Robinson) to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 16
OWN 43
+24
5.9%
Otis Anderson run for 24 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
5.6%
Otis Anderson run for 7 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+4
5.6%
Bentavious Thompson run for 4 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
5.6%
Bentavious Thompson run for 21 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.1%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 2:461% → 5%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
1.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 4 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+10
1.3%
Chandler Smith run for 10 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
1.3%
Chandler Smith run for 2 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+18
1.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 18 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
1.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 6 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Tatum Bethune) to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
1.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Chandler Smith for 10 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
1.7%
Chandler Smith run for 7 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+10
5.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 10 yds for a TD, (Clayton Tune pass to Chandler Smith for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:4197% → 100%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-9
3.2%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the UCF 41 UCF Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Marcus Tatum) to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 18
OWN 45
+20
3.3%
Greg McCrae run for 20 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
3.2%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+3
3.1%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 19
OWN 44
+1
3.2%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+28
0.5%
Otis Anderson run for 28 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.7%
Logan Holgorsen pass complete to Bryson Smith for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
0.8%
Terrell Brown run for 7 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
0.8%
James Fullbright III run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
50
+5
0.8%
Logan Holgorsen run for 5 yds to the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:38
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 36 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)
-12.8
TD · Q3 6:16
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+8
TD · Q1 2:15
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 34 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com