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UCF

UCF 49 at Memphis 50

MEM
2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:18 · Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon Williams
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Home team on offense−12.5Pregame prior−6.2Score differential−5.6Garbage-time factor−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:55: Brady White pass complete to Javon Ivory for 17 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +20.7 pts (now 40%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:40: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 93 yds for a TD (Dillon Gabriel pass to Marlon Williams for Two-Point Conversion) — UCF win probability +22.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:16: Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 3 yds for a TD (Brady White pass to Sean Dykes for Two-Point Conversion) — MEM win probability +20.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:41: Brady White pass complete to Kylan Watkins for 22 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +20.1 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:08: Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 4 yds for a TD White, Brady pass attempt good, PENALTY MEMPHIS holding 10 yards to the UCF13, NO PLAY. (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MEM win probability +53.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 4:44UCF 4th & 4 at MEM 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−1.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:15MEM 4th & 8 at UCF 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    47.2%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:15UCF 4th & 1 at MEM 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    51.9%−1.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:45MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.4%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:56MEM 4th & 18 at MEM 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:27MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 31, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:18UCF 4th & 6 at MEM 32, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    66.9%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:19UCF 4th & 2 at MEM 29, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    73.9%−1.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−7.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:01MEM 4th & 4 at UCF 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−6.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:50UCF 4th & 1 at MEM 34, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.1%−3.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−4.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:05UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−4.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:53MEM 4th & 29 at MEM 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−5.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:48MEM 4th & 10 at UCF 20, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−6.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:16MEM 4th & 3 at UCF 3, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−7.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:38UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 44, up 5
    Close callPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:24MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 43, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.8%−5.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 8:08UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:11MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:14UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:35UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:06MEM Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:12UCF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:32UCF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:16MEM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    18.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:55MEM Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:40UCF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    84.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    84.3%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:16MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    20.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.0%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:29UCF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    92.0%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.7%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 3:41MEM Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 1:08MEM Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    74.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1FUMBLE
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:0940% → 41%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the Memph 26Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
39.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 21Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+21
39.9%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 21 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
40.1%
Clark, Rodrigues rush for 18 yards to the UCF40, PENALTY MEMPHIS illegal formation 5 yards to the MEMPHIS37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+6
40.2%
Kylan Watkins run for 6 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+9
40.6%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 9 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
41.0%
Kylan Watkins run for 5 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+9
41.1%
Kylan Watkins run for 9 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+33
41.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 33 yds Rodrigues Clark fumbled, recovered by UCF Antwan CollierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:1259% → 61%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
40.8%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Morris Joseph for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 18 Dillon Gabriel fumbled, recovered by UCF Dillon Gabriel , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+24
40.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 24 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
40.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for 7 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+10
40.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 10 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
40.7%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+14
40.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 14 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
40.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 4 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+13
40.7%
Otis Anderson run for 13 yds to the Memph 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
40.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for 4 yds to the Memph 2Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
40.6%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 1Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.7%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:5739% → 43%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.3%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+40
39.7%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 40 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
40.4%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 5 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (13 Yards) to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
40.5%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
43.2%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 12 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 71 yds · 2:2158% → 58%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
42.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
41.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 5 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
41.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 6 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+24
41.5%
Greg McCrae run for 24 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
41.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 26 yds to the Memph 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
41.1%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the Memph 6Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
41.2%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the Memph 4Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
41.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 4:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
42.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:1543% → 44%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+19
42.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 19 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-6
43.1%
Brady White sacked by Cam Goode for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 17Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 16
OWN 17
+4
43.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+22
42.8%
Brady White pass complete to Javon Ivory for 22 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
44.6%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
44.5%
Kylan Watkins run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 3
50
-1
44.9%
Kylan Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 4
OWN 49
+5
44.2%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
45.7%
Marquavius Weaver run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
45.0%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+5
44.5%
Brady White run for 5 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
44.4%
Brady White punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:4756% → 64%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
43.6%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
43.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 13 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
43.3%
Otis Anderson run for 12 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
42.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
42.9%
Otis Anderson run for 9 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
42.2%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Memph 46Similar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
43.4%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
42.4%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Thomas Pickens for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 46Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+3
43.0%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+43
36.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 43 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 26 yds · 4:1038% → 36%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
37.9%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+3
37.9%
Kylan Watkins run for 3 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+6
37.2%
Brady White pass complete to Kameron Wilson for 6 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 1
OWN 18
+1
36.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
37.9%
Calvin Austin III run for 11 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
39.0%
Brady White pass complete to Javon Ivory for 13 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
39.6%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 1 yd to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
39.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-4
38.3%
Brady White pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 13
OWN 40
-5
36.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 35Similar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
36.1%
Adam Williams punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8TD
2 plays · 85 yds · 0:1263% → 68%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
36.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Stephon ZayasSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+85
31.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 85 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4332% → 32%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
32.0%
Brady White sacked by Tatum Bethune for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 19Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+12
31.6%
Brady White pass complete to Kylan Watkins for 12 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
31.6%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
31.5%
Adam Williams punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:5169% → 71%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.7%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+37
30.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 37 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
29.4%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
29.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
29.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 6
OPP 32
0
29.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:5931% → 42%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
31.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+7
31.2%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 7 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
31.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
31.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+45
33.9%
Brady White pass complete to Javon Ivory for 36 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (9 Yards) to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
33.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 7 yds to the UCF 2Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
33.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the UCF 1Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.4%
Brady White run for 1 yd for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:4064% → 78%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.4%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
35.6%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 29 Greg McCrae fumbled, recovered by UCF Greg McCraeSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+33
36.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 33 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
32.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 1 yd to the Memph 37Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+10
32.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 10 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
32.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 29Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+19
32.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 19 yds to the Memph 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
32.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
21.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 10 yds for a TD MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 37 yds · 0:0728% → 29%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
28.1%
Asa Martin run for 15 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+13
29.3%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 13 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:2575% → 91%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+28
25.2%
Dillon Gabriel run for 28 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
23.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 3 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+7
23.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 7 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
23.1%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 36Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
22.8%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Memph 36Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+7
21.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 7 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+6
22.3%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
20.1%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+3
20.0%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+14
8.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for 14 yds for a TD Timeout UCF, clock 11:32 (Dillon Gabriel pass to Marlon Williams for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0614% → 26%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
13.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 7 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+14
14.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 14 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
14.7%
White, Brady pass incomplete to Austin III, Calvin, PENALTY UCF pass interference 9 yards to the UCF45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
14.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 14 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
14.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+1
13.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
13.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+18
11.3%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 18 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
11.8%
Kylan Watkins run for 1 yd to the UCF 6Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
25.6%
Brady White pass complete to Kameron Wilson for 6 yds for a TD (Brady White pass to Tahj Washington for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16FUMBLE
14 plays · 71 yds · 3:4480% → 85%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
20.5%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+17
20.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 17 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
18.9%
Otis Anderson run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 1
50
+7
18.3%
Otis Anderson run for 7 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
18.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for no gain to the Memph 43Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
16.4%
Greg McCrae run for 7 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+2
16.3%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
17.7%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
15.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 14 yds to the Memph 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
15.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 6 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+4
15.0%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the Memph 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
14.9%
Otis Anderson run for 5 yds to the Memph 3Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
14.8%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 4 Otis Anderson fumbled, forced by Rodney Owens, recovered by Memph Tyrez LindseySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
8 plays · 96 yds · 3:0419% → 40%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
18.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the Memph 4Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+3
18.5%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 3 yds to the Memph 7Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+8
18.0%
Brady White run for 8 yds to the Memph 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
18.0%
Kylan Watkins run for 2 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+16
17.4%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 16 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
17.9%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 20 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+30
19.0%
Kylan Watkins run for 30 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
39.7%
Brady White pass complete to Javon Ivory for 17 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:3571% → 68%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
28.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-9
29.6%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by O'Bryan Goodson for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 19 UCF Penalty, Personal Foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 0:19
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+5
32.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
31.8%
Andrew Osteen punt for 42 yds, downed at the Memph 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0933% → 30%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
33.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-4
32.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 14
OWN 30
+35
30.6%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 35 yds to the MEMPHIS 35 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
39.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
39.6%
Brady White pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-19
36.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 19 yards to the Memph 46 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Memph Brady WhiteSimilar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 29
OWN 46
0
30.1%
Adam Williams punt for 47 yds, downed at the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
1 play · 93 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+93
7.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 93 yds for a TD (Dillon Gabriel pass to Marlon Williams for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:2412% → 31%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.1%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+13
12.7%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 13 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
13.2%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 8 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+17
14.0%
Kylan Watkins run for 2 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
14.4%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 12 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
14.5%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
14.3%
Brady White pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
13.6%
Brady White pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+10
12.9%
Brady White pass complete to Kylan Watkins for 10 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
12.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the UCF 9Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
12.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q4 9:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
11.1%
Brady White pass complete to Kylan Watkins for 6 yds to the UCF 3Similar
Q4 9:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
31.3%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 3 yds for a TD (Brady White pass to Sean Dykes for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:3076% → 95%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
23.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 9 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
22.8%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
22.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 5 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+10
21.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 10 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
19.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 1 yd to the Memph 47Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+9
19.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 9 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
18.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+11
17.4%
Greg McCrae run for 11 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
15.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 12 yds to the Memph 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
15.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
14.8%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
5.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 1:388% → 30%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
7.5%
White, Brady pass incomplete, PENALTY UCF holding (Robinson, Aaron) 10 yards to the MEMPHIS26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
7.6%
Brady White pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+20
7.3%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 20 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
9.4%
Brady White run for 10 yds to the MEMPHIS 44 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
11.6%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 17 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
10.8%
White, Brady pass sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UCF23 (Woodson, Landon), PENALTY MEMPHIS holding off-setting, PENALTY UCF Holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
10.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 15
OPP 22
0
10.0%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+22
30.1%
Brady White pass complete to Kylan Watkins for 22 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:1787% → 87%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
12.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
12.7%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
11.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
12.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 1:2221% → 80%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
20.9%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 10 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
21.2%
Brady White run for 11 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
21.6%
Brady White pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
20.9%
Brady White run for 7 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
20.2%
Brady White pass incomplete to Rodrigues ClarkSimilar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+52
18.3%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 52 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
24.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the UCF 5Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
26.0%
Brady White pass complete to Kameron Wilson for 1 yd to the UCF 4Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
80.4%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 4 yds for a TD White, Brady pass attempt good, PENALTY MEMPHIS holding 10 yards to the UCF13, NO PLAY. (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:08
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 4 yds for a TD White, Brady pass attempt good, PENALTY MEMPHIS holding 10 yards to the UCF13, NO PLAY. (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+53.4
TD · Q4 12:40
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 93 yds for a TD (Dillon Gabriel pass to Marlon Williams for Two-Point Conversion)
-22.4
TD · Q3 0:55
Brady White pass complete to Javon Ivory for 17 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)
+20.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com