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UCF

UCF 51 at East Carolina 28

ECU
2020 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2020 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.5ECU 0.5%Daniel Obarski 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 44 - HOME 14 · Q4 13:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:33 · Daniel Obarski 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 180Pregame prior−16.1Home team on offense−49.1Score differential−30.9Garbage-time factor−17.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:20: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Darius Pinnix Jr. for 17 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +1.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:55: Daniel Obarski 33 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +1.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:57: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 64 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +2.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:24: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jake Hescock for 7 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +3.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:11: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 11 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +1.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 8:09UCF 4th & 20 at ECU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:28UCF 4th & 9 at ECU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UCF 4th & 7 at ECU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    90.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:07ECU 4th & 3 at UCF 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:55UCF 4th & 13 at ECU 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    84.5%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:41ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:57ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 38, down 13
    Close callPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:11ECU 4th & 22 at ECU 13, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:26UCF 4th & 4 at ECU 42, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:06ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 42, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:42UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 15, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:33UCF 4th & 14 at ECU 14, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:33ECU 4th & 2 at UCF 21, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:09UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 22, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:05ECU 4th & 15 at ECU 11, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:20ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:22UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:57UCF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:24UCF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:11UCF Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:57UCF Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:26ECU Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:09ECU Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:59UCF Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:19ECU Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:405% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
5.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 15 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
5.3%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
5.3%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+12
5.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 12 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
5.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 1 yd to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-11
5.3%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECaro 38 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (C.J. Johnson) to the ECaro 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 47
+22
5.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 22 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
5.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+19
5.3%
Holton Ahlers run for 19 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
6.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Darius Pinnix Jr. for 17 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 2:5893% → 93%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
6.7%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
6.7%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 15Similar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-5
6.7%
UCF Penalty, false start (Marlon Williams) to the UCF 10Similar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 25
OWN 10
-5
6.7%
UCF Penalty, false start (Jacob Harris) to the UCF 5Similar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 30
OWN 5
+1
6.7%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the UCF 6Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 29
OWN 6
+24
6.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 24 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+17
6.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 17 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
6.6%
N/A pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-3
6.6%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+21
6.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 21 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
6.6%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 40Similar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+20
6.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 20 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
6.6%
N/A pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+18
6.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 18 yds to the ECaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
6.6%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the ECaro 1Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.2%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
7.4%
Chase Hayden run for 11 yds to the ECaro 32 Chase Hayden fumbled, forced by Antwan Collier, recovered by UCF Anthony MontalvoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
7.2%
N/A run for 6 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-1
7.2%
N/A run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
7.3%
N/A pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 5
OPP 27
-5
7.4%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 10
OPP 32
-5
7.5%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 37Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 15
OPP 37
-5
7.5%
UCF Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 42Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 20
OPP 42
0
7.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
7.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jeremy Lewis, broken up by Antwan CollierSimilar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+2
7.8%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECaro 14Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+5
7.7%
UCF Penalty, offside defense (Chris DeLoach) to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+16
7.7%
Holton Ahlers run for 16 yds to the ECaro 35 Holton Ahlers fumbled, forced by Eriq Gilyard, recovered by UCF Richie GrantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:3492% → 91%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
7.9%
N/A pass complete to N/A to N/A for 4 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+2
7.9%
N/A run for 2 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+20
8.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 20 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
7.9%
N/A pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
7.9%
N/A run for no gain to the ECaro 9Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
8.0%
N/A pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
8.6%
Daniel Obarski 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7FUMBLE
14 plays · 41 yds · 3:069% → 10%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
8.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 11Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
8.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+9
8.3%
Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
8.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler Snead, broken up by Aaron RobinsonSimilar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-3
8.5%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 17Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+24
8.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 24 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
8.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
8.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+10
10.0%
AHLERS, Holton deep out pass incomplete to SNEAD, Tyler, PENALTY UCF holding (MAXWELL, Zamari) 10 yards to the UCF47, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
10.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
10.5%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-3
10.1%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 48 Darius Pinnix Jr. fumbled, forced by Chris DeLoach, recovered by UCF Eriq GilyardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:3390% → 90%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
9.8%
N/A pass complete to N/A to N/A for 6 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
9.8%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+1
9.8%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
9.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon Williams, broken up by Jireh WilsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
9.8%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
9.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
10.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'Keefe, broken up by Shawn DourseauSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:2211% → 13%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
11.4%
Chase Hayden run for 10 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
11.9%
Chase Hayden run for 4 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+10
12.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 10 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
12.1%
Chase Hayden run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
12.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+5
11.6%
AHLERS, Holton sideline pass incomplete to PROEHL, Blake, PENALTY UCF offside defense (GOODE, Cam) 5 yards to the UCF37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+3
12.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 11:07
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
13.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:0788% → 89%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
12.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 20 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
11.5%
Otis Anderson run for 6 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+9
11.5%
Otis Anderson run for 9 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
11.5%
Otis Anderson run for 5 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+2
11.4%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+11
11.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 11 yds to the ECaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
11.4%
Bentavious Thompson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 11Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-5
12.2%
GABRIEL, Dillon sideline pass complete to HESCOCK, Jake for 11 yards to the ECU0, clock 08:08, PENALTY UCF ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the ECU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 13
OPP 16
0
12.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon Williams, broken up by Robert KennedySimilar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 13
OPP 16
0
12.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+33
11.2%
Daniel Obarski 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1412% → 12%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 5 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
12.3%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
12.1%
Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+46
12.0%
Jonn Young punt for 36 yds, downed at the EASTCRLINA 32 UCF Penalty, illegal block (Davonte Brown) to the UCF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 0:5788% → 91%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
12.3%
Greg McCrae run for 7 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+2
11.7%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+5
11.7%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
8.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 64 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
9.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 13 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
9.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 1
OWN 40
-1
10.0%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-1
9.8%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 9 yds to the ECaro 48 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the ECaro 38Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
9.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+1
9.5%
Jonn Young punt for 49 yds , Marlon Williams returns for 1 yd to the UCF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 2:4591% → 95%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
9.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 11 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
9.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
8.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 10 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
8.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 3 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+25
8.5%
Bentavious Thompson run for 25 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
8.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 7 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+12
8.2%
Greg McCrae run for 12 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
8.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 5 yds to the ECaro 7Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
4.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jake Hescock for 7 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
6.0%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:4996% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
4.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 8 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
4.5%
Bentavious Thompson run for 6 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
4.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 7 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+8
4.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 8 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
4.2%
Bentavious Thompson run for 20 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
4.1%
Bentavious Thompson run for 6 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+9
4.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 9 yds to the ECaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
2.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 11 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
2.4%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Kenny Turnier for a loss of 11 yards to the ECaro 14Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 21
OWN 14
-1
2.3%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 13Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 22
OWN 13
0
2.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Zamari MaxwellSimilar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+5
2.3%
Luke Larsen punt for 47 yds , Marlon Williams returns for 5 yds to the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:4498% → 99%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
1.9%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+4
1.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 4 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
1.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 6 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+2
1.9%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+28
1.4%
Greg McCrae run for 28 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 9 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 3:311% → 2%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
0.9%
Chase Hayden run for 5 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+2
0.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+31
0.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Chase Hayden for 31 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
1.0%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
0.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+10
0.9%
AHLERS, Holton sideline pass incomplete to OMOTOSHO, Audie, PENALTY UCF holding (THORNTON, Corey) 10 yards to the UCF42, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
1.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+9
1.0%
Chase Hayden run for 9 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+1
1.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+37
1.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 37 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
1.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
1.2%
Bentavious Thompson run for no gain to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
1.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 11 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
1.1%
Bentavious Thompson run for 12 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
1.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon Williams, broken up by Shawn DourseauSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
1.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 5 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+1
1.2%
Bentavious Thompson run for 1 yd to the ECaro 42Similar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
1.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon Robinson, broken up by Nolan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
1.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler Snead, broken up by Aaron RobinsonSimilar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
1.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
1.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 10
OWN 42
+52
1.2%
Jonn Young punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Marlon Williams at the EASTCRLINA 12 UCF Penalty, Offensive holding (Zamari Maxwell) to the UCF 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
1.0%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+3
1.0%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+4
1.1%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
1.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 32 yds, downed at the UCF 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23INT
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
1.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+16
1.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 16 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
1.1%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted, touchback. Richie Grant return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 2:2099% → 100%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
1.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 3 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
1.1%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+15
1.1%
GABRIEL, Dillon middle pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Mar. (KENNEDY, Robert), PENALTY ECU roughing passer (D'ABREU, Rick) 15 yards to the UCF39, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
0.9%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the UCF 42 Greg McCrae fumbled, forced by Xavier Smith, recovered by UCF Samuel JacksonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+7
0.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 7 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+42
0.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 42 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ja'Cyais CredleSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
0.9%
UCF Penalty, false start (Cole Schneider) to the ECaro 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
0.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob Harris, broken up by Xavier SmithSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
1.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q4 13:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
0.5%
Daniel Obarski 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:240% → 2%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Fernando Frye) to the ECaro 20Similar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
0.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
0.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 14 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
0.3%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 5 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+6
0.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
0.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 7 yds to the EASTCRLINA 44 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, roughing passer (Cam Goode) to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
0.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
0.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+2
0.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the UCF 21 Rahjai Harris fumbled, forced by Derek Gainous, recovered by ECaro Bailey MalovicSimilar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+10
0.3%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 10 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
0.4%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+7
0.4%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 7 yds to the UCF 3Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
1.8%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
1.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 27 UCF Penalty, personal foul (-13 Yards) to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+5
1.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+3
1.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+4
1.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 16 , Tyler Snead returns for 4 yds to the ECaro 26 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the ECaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
0.9%
Chase Hayden run for 1 yd to the ECaro 17Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+1
0.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 18Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-7
0.9%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Keenan Hester for a loss of 7 yards to the ECaro 11Similar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 15
OWN 11
+20
0.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Amari Johnson at the ECaro 46 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the ECaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28TD
1 play · 31 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
0.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 31 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 29TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 3:400% → 1%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
0.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+3
0.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+6
0.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
0.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 18 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
0.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 14 yds to the UCF 30 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (C.J. Johnson) to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 6
OPP 40
0
0.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+9
0.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 9 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
0.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 20 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
0.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+1
0.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the UCF 7Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
0.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.3%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the ECaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:24
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jake Hescock for 7 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)
-3.5
TD · Q2 4:57
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 64 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)
-2.9
TD · Q1 11:20
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Darius Pinnix Jr. for 17 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com