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ECU

East Carolina 30 at Tulsa 34

TLSA
2020 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2020 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:00 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior+28.0Home team on offense−1.1Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:23: Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 25 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +14.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:19: T.K. Wilkerson run for 13 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +16.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 9:14: Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 39 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +25.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:24: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +37.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:29: T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +54.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 9ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:51ECU 4th & 12 at ECU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:44TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:46TLSA 4th & 4 at ECU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    83.1%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:35TLSA 4th & 14 at ECU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:50ECU 4th & 11 at ECU 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00TLSA 4th & 6 at ECU 44, down 4
    Close callPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:29TLSA 4th & 12 at ECU 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:58ECU 4th & 9 at TLSA 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−3.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:15ECU 4th & 5 at TLSA 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−10.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:28TLSA 4th & 4 at ECU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    46.6%−2.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:19TLSA 4th & 1 at ECU 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−2.9
    85% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−12.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:15TLSA 4th & 4 at ECU 4, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.0%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−13.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:54ECU 4th & 3 at TLSA 4, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.4%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−16.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:34ECU 4th & 11 at TLSA 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−3.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−15.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:24ECU 4th & 4 at TLSA 4, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    29.4%−1.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−19.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:52TLSA 4th & 5 at ECU 32, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.2 ptsWent for it · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%−6.2
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−18.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:08ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:42ECU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:23TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:19TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:14TLSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:24ECU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−1.0
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:29TLSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:5415% → 15%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
85.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+5
85.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-5
85.2%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-1
85.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 18Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
85.0%
Luke Larsen punt for 41 yds, downed at the Tulsa 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-17
84.9%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Warren Saba return for 17 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 1:2615% → 17%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
84.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 20 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
84.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
84.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+16
83.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 16 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1284% → 83%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
83.5%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
83.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+8
83.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 9:44
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
82.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:5217% → 18%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 9 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
82.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 8 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
81.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 46 Rahjai Harris fumbled, recovered by TulsaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5283% → 82%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
82.6%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 49Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+9
82.2%
Deneric Prince run for 9 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
82.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Deneric PrinceSimilar
Q1 7:46
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
81.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
80.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 16 yds Audie Omotosho fumbled, recovered by TulsaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:5382% → 80%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
81.7%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+1
81.4%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+11
80.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 11 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
81.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 8 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+21
81.2%
Zach Smith run for 7 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (14 Yards) to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
81.1%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 11Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+2
80.7%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 9Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 5
OPP 9
-9
80.0%
Zach Smith sacked by Jireh Wilson and Xavier Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 18Similar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 14
OPP 18
+35
80.2%
Zack Long 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:4520% → 20%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
80.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ECaro 12Similar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 20
OWN 12
+7
80.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 7 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+2
79.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 11
OWN 21
0
79.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jsi HatfieldSimilar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
80.1%
Luke Larsen punt for 38 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for no gain to the Tulsa 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4080% → 79%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
80.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 1
50
+2
80.4%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
80.3%
Zach Smith sacked by Chris Willis for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 12
50
+6
79.4%
Deneric Prince run for 6 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
79.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
78.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 4:1722% → 32%
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
78.5%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 5Similar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+3
78.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 8Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
78.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 12
OWN 8
+13
78.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 13 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
77.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 19 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
76.5%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
76.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 6 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+7
75.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
74.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 7 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
74.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+25
67.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 25 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:0769% → 66%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
69.2%
Keylon Stokes run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
69.8%
Smith, Zach pass incomplete to Crawford Jr., Sam, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference 15 yards to the EASTCRLINA47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
70.6%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
69.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ethan Hall for 2 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-5
68.9%
Zach Smith sacked by Jireh Wilson for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
66.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13FG
18 plays · 60 yds · 6:2533% → 51%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
66.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 6
OWN 15
-7
66.0%
Harris, Rahjai rush for no gain to the EASTCRLINA15, PENALTY EASTCRLINA illegal block 7 yards to the EASTCRLINA8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 13
OWN 8
+20
65.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 20 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
64.1%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 23Similar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+7
64.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 7 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
63.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 6 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+4
62.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 4 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
60.8%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+15
60.1%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Johnson, C.J., PENALTY TULSA pass interference 15 yards to the TULSA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
59.4%
Mitchell, Keaton rush for 4 yards to the TULSA39, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+8
59.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 8 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+15
58.4%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Omotosho, Audie, PENALTY TULSA pass interference 15 yards to the TULSA30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
57.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 4 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-5
57.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-1
56.5%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+3
56.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 3 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+46
49.3%
Jake Verity 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14INT
11 plays · 40 yds · 1:2151% → 51%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
50.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 13 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
51.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Stewart for 3 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+16
51.4%
Zach Smith run for 16 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
52.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Stewart for 13 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
52.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-5
52.7%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 35Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 15
OPP 35
0
52.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+8
51.2%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Shawn Dourseau return for 5 yds to the ECaro 30 TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (-13 Yards) to the ECaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
44.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:1748% → 64%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
47.7%
Keylon Stokes run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
48.1%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+12
49.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 12 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
49.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 20 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
64.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 25 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 3:5443% → 52%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
56.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 16 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
54.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
53.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 13 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
52.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 5 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+13
51.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 13 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
51.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+8
50.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 8 yds to the Tulsa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
50.2%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
49.8%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
49.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
48.4%
Jake Verity 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 2:4447% → 64%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
47.4%
Deneric Prince run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+15
47.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 15 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
48.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
48.4%
Deneric Prince run for 10 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
49.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
48.9%
Deneric Prince run for 6 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
48.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Malik RodgersSimilar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+15
46.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 15 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
49.8%
Deneric Prince run for 8 yds to the ECaro 14Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
49.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Malik RodgersSimilar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+1
47.5%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd to the ECaro 13Similar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+13
64.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 13 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5840% → 40%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
60.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 4 yds to the ECaro 8Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+4
60.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 4 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 2
OWN 12
-3
60.1%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted Justin Wright return for 3 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4466% → 70%
Q3 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
66.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
66.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for no gain to the ECaro 4Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
63.9%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
70.0%
Zack Long 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21MISSED FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 4:0635% → 40%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
64.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 5 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+9
62.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 9 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
61.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 18 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
59.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+20
58.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
57.6%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-5
57.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 15
OPP 24
0
58.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 15
OPP 24
+13
61.3%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Johnson, C.J., PENALTY TULSA pass interference 13 yards to the TULSA11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
56.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 6 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+2
56.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 3
-1
57.8%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
60.4%
Jake Verity 21 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jaxon PlayerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22FUMBLE
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0766% → 66%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
66.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Deneric PrinceSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+17
66.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 17 yds JuanCarlos Santana fumbled, recovered by ECaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:0144% → 51%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
56.3%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 13
OPP 38
0
58.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Shane CalhounSimilar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+18
60.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
54.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 15
OPP 25
0
55.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Zech ByrdSimilar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+4
56.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 4 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
56.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+38
48.6%
Jake Verity 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1652% → 79%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.1%
Keylon Stokes run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
52.5%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
52.9%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
54.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 8 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+1
55.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 1
50
+8
52.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 8 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
53.4%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+39
79.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 39 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:4127% → 71%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
72.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+6
72.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 6 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+6
73.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 6 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+34
71.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 34 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
65.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 2 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+15
64.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Cam Burnette for 15 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
63.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 11 yds to the Tulsa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
62.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
64.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
66.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 2 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q4 4:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
29.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:4639% → 93%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
39.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 18 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
43.0%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 15
OWN 38
-2
39.3%
T.K. Wilkerson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 17
OWN 36
-4
37.6%
Smith, Zach pass complete to Johnson, Josh for 37 yards to the EASTCRLINA27, PENALTY TULSA illegal motion 4 yards to the TULSA32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 21
OWN 32
0
33.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 21
OWN 32
+11
31.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 11 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+9
31.5%
Smith, Zach pass incomplete to Stokes, Keylon, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference 9 yards to the EASTCRLINA48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
39.1%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 11 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
37.6%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
42.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+1
33.9%
Zach Smith run for 1 yd to the ECaro 32Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+13
27.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 13 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
38.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 18 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.0%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:2030% → 21%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
70.2%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Snead, Tyler, PENALTY TULSA pass interference 9 yards to the TULSA35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
66.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
68.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
78.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:29
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Zack Long KICK)
+54.8
TD · Q4 4:24
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
-37.8
TD · Q4 9:14
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 39 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)
+25.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com