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TLSA

Tulsa 34 at UCF 26

UCF
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDSAFETYFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:59 · Andrew Osteen punt for 43 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 177Pregame prior+9.6Home team on offense−5.5Garbage-time factor−4.9Score differential−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:53: Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 48 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +3.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:49: Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +9.9 pts (now 21%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 7:31: T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Zack Long KICK) (Zack Long PAT MISSED) — TLSA win probability +6.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:56: Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TLSA win probability +26.5 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:30: Zack Long 34 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +4.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 13:56TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:09UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:07UCF 4th & 14 at UCF 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:26TLSA 4th & 15 at TLSA 20, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:27UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 44, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:50TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 43, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:45TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:41TLSA 4th & 2 at UCF 3, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.6%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:31UCF 4th & 4 at TLSA 4, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.0%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−2.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:33TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 29, down 11
    Close callPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:39UCF 4th & 1 at TLSA 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    86.1%−3.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:16UCF 4th & 9 at TLSA 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−4.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:31UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−1.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:41TLSA 4th & 10 at UCF 40, down 1
    Close callPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:18UCF 4th & 24 at UCF 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−7.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:59UCF 4th & 7 at TLSA 43, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    43.2%−3.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%−1.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:19TLSA 4th & 5 at UCF 44, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    61.2%−4.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%−1.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:35UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 17, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:30TLSA 4th & 4 at UCF 17, up 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.3%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    79.1%−8.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:13UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:58UCF Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:39UCF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:53TLSA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:49TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:31TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:56TLSA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    55.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:009% → 9%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
90.8%
T.K. Wilkerson run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
90.7%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+9
90.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 9 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
90.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 38 yds, downed at the UCF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:4191% → 90%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
90.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 14 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
90.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
90.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+4
90.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 4 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
90.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 46 yds, downed at the Tulsa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:3610% → 10%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+12
90.1%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
89.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-9
89.9%
Zach Smith sacked by Kenny Turnier for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulsa 8 Zach Smith fumbled, recovered by UCFSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0690% → 90%
Q1 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
90.1%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
90.0%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
89.8%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
90.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 12 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
90.1%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Richie Grant return for no gain to the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:2890% → 90%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
90.3%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
90.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-28
90.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted Zaven Collins return for 13 yds to the TULSA 47 TULSA Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the UCF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
89.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 13 yds to the UCF 47 Corey Taylor II fumbled, recovered by UCFSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5490% → 90%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
90.3%
Bentavious Thompson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 14
OWN 43
0
90.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 14
OWN 43
0
90.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Bentavious ThompsonSimilar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
89.8%
Andrew Osteen punt for 56 yds, downed at the Tulsa 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9SF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:2710% → 10%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
89.9%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 4
-4
89.9%
Zach Smith run for a loss of 4 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 0:3190% → 92%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
90.1%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 9
OWN 48
+3
90.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 3 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+49
91.5%
Otis Anderson run for 49 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:149% → 9%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.7%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
90.6%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-9
90.6%
Zach Smith sacked by Joshua Celiscar for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
90.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 38 yds, downed at the UCF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3892% → 91%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
91.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
91.6%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
91.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
91.3%
Andrew Osteen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:1910% → 9%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
90.5%
Deneric Prince run for 23 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
90.4%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
90.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ethan Hall for no gain to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
90.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
90.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 48 yds, downed at the UCF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14SF
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:3291% → 91%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
91.3%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 8Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 11
OWN 8
-4
91.4%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Marcus Tatum) to the UCF 4Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 15
OWN 4
-4
91.0%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 4 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2510% → 9%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
90.5%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-1
90.4%
T.K. Wilkerson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
90.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+14
90.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 46 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 14 yds to the UCF 33 Otis Anderson fumbled, recovered by TulsaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:0010% → 12%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
90.0%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+5
90.0%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (Corey Thornton) to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+2
89.9%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
89.8%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 2 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+3
89.7%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+6
90.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 6 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
89.8%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 2 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+4
89.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to James Palmer for 4 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+2
89.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 2 yds to the UCF 3Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+20
88.5%
Zack Long 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17MISSED FG
14 plays · 73 yds · 2:5990% → 89%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
89.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
89.4%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+7
89.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 7 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
89.6%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+45
89.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 45 yds to the Tulsa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
90.2%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+9
90.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 9 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+5
90.1%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+1
90.0%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
90.0%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
89.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
89.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
89.3%
Daniel Obarski 21 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5211% → 10%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
88.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
88.8%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
89.5%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
89.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 67 yds, downed at the UCF 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
13 plays · 96 yds · 4:4690% → 94%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
89.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 8 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 2
OWN 12
0
89.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+2
89.5%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+53
89.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 53 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
90.5%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+20
90.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 20 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
90.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 3 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+4
90.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+5
90.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.7%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.8%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.0%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.6%
Cole Schneider run for 1 yd for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
6 plays · 88 yds · 0:357% → 11%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
93.4%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+19
93.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 19 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
93.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 21 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
88.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 48 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
89.8%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
79.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 3:2782% → 86%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
82.4%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Samuel Jackson) to the UCF 19Similar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 15
OWN 19
-3
82.2%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Anthony Goodlow for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 16Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 18
OWN 16
+8
81.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 8 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+10
81.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 10 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
82.1%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+10
81.6%
Otis Anderson run for 10 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
82.8%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
83.2%
Otis Anderson run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
83.6%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+15
83.5%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Allie Green IV) to the Tulsa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
83.4%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
83.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jake HescockSimilar
Q3 11:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
82.6%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Offside (Marcus Tatum) to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
82.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
85.8%
Daniel Obarski 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3915% → 26%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.9%
T.K. Wilkerson run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+49
84.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 49 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
81.3%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 6 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+3
81.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+4
82.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
80.9%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gerard Wheeler) to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+21
81.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 21 yds to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
80.5%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 3Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
80.3%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 2 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.8%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Zack Long KICK) (Zack Long PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5478% → 75%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
76.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+17
75.3%
Andrew Osteen punt for 53 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 17 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:4425% → 25%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
75.4%
Deneric Prince run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
73.5%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
73.0%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+15
74.7%
Smith, Zach pass incomplete, PENALTY UCF pass interference (Maxwell, Zamari) 15 yards to the UCF40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
72.0%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
71.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
73.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
75.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 36 yds, downed at the UCF 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28PUNT
14 plays · 29 yds · 4:1775% → 71%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
75.4%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+15
74.9%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Akayleb Evans) to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
75.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 13 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
75.8%
Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-5
77.1%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Matthew Lee) to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+4
76.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 19 yds to the TULSA 48 UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Ja'Cyais Credle) to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
75.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 7 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
76.8%
Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
77.6%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 15
OWN 42
-2
75.3%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 17
OWN 40
0
74.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 17
OWN 40
-5
73.3%
UCF Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 22
OWN 35
-2
72.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 0:18
4TH & 24
OWN 33
+27
71.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 42 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 32 UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Tulsa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:1530% → 61%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+24
70.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 24 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
68.0%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 5
OPP 32
+15
65.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 15 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
65.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 10 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-6
65.1%
T.K. Wilkerson run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 13Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
38.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 31PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 1:5048% → 47%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
48.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 19 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
51.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
49.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 10 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
52.9%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 13
OPP 49
-5
49.6%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 18
OWN 46
+11
47.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Amari Johnson for 11 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
50.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
47.3%
Andrew Osteen punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 32PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:3161% → 66%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
39.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
37.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
35.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+12
35.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Stewart for 12 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
32.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
31.9%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 5 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
31.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to T.K. Wilkerson for no gain to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
34.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 43 yds, downed at the UCF 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 33PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4042% → 30%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
41.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 5 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+10
38.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 10 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
39.2%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 11Similar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 15
OWN 11
-1
38.5%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 16
OWN 10
+7
34.5%
Dillon Gabriel run for 7 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
31.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
30.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 51 yds, downed at the Tulsa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 34FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 4:0174% → 96%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
26.1%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+14
22.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 14 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
18.9%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+5
18.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+10
15.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 10 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
12.6%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 14 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
10.4%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 2 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+4
9.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
10.1%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+34
4.0%
Zack Long 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 35Uncategorized
11 plays · 42 yds · 1:235% → 6%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
4.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
4.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Amari Johnson for 13 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
4.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Damarius Good for 9 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 1
OWN 47
-5
5.7%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+22
4.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 22 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
5.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Damarius Good for 13 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
7.5%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (Matthew Lee) to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 20
OPP 33
0
6.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 20
OPP 33
0
5.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:56
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-26.5
TD · Q3 14:49
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)
-9.9
TD · Q3 7:31
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Zack Long KICK) (Zack Long PAT MISSED)
-6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com