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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTULN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:58 · Ryan Wright punt for 43 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 3 yds to the Houst 28 Marcus Jones fumbled, recovered by Tulan
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:50: Michael Pratt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +10.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:53: Mulbah Car run for 3 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +14.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:53: Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 8 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +18.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:36: Merek Glover kickoff for 62 yds , Marquez Stevenson return for 97 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +23.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:46: Kyle Porter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +11.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TULN made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 13:42HOU 4th & 4 at TULN 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.0%48% to convertField goal67.9%−0.136% to makePunt67.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:01TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snapGo for it32.4%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.4%average punt
- Q1 8:33HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snapGo for it64.8%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.0%average punt
- Q1 3:50TULN 4th & 8 at HOU 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snapGo for it37.7%−0.333% to convertField goalTheir call38.0%72% to makePunt35.9%−2.1average punt
- Q2 9:47HOU 4th & 1 at TULN 1, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.3%59% to convertField goal44.5%−1.894% to makePunt39.9%−6.4average punt
- Q2 7:41TULN 4th & 15 at TULN 20, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snapGo for it45.9%−1.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.2%average punt
- Q2 1:05HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snapGo for it52.7%−2.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.5%average punt
- Q2 0:05TULN 4th & 12 at TULN 15, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snapGo for it35.7%−2.522% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.1%average punt
- Q3 13:02TULN 4th & 17 at TULN 32, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snapGo for it40.5%−4.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.8%average punt
- Q3 4:07TULN 4th & 8 at TULN 27, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snapGo for it27.8%−1.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.2%average punt
- Q3 2:01HOU 4th & 1 at TULN 33, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.5%71% to convertField goal69.2%−4.349% to makePunt67.7%−5.8average punt
- Q4 14:41TULN 4th & 16 at TULN 19, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it11.3%−1.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.7%average punt
- Q4 12:58TULN 4th & 17 at TULN 32, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it3.2%−1.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q4 11:43TULN 4th & 8 at HOU 21, down 18Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.4%−0.732% to convertField goal4.0%74% to makePunt0.6%−3.4average punt
- Q4 7:11HOU 4th & 17 at HOU 47, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.2%−0.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%average punt
- Q4 6:04TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 34, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.1%−0.5average punt
- Q4 4:30HOU 4th & 6 at TULN 30, up 18Close callKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.3%40% to convertField goalTheir call98.3%−<0.156% to makePunt97.9%−0.4average punt
- Q4 0:40TULN 4th & 12 at HOU 33, down 18Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%−0.123% to convertField goal1.4%49% to makePunt1.1%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 13:42TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.4%97% to makeGo for two32.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 11:07HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.7%97% to makeGo for two67.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:50TULN Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.1%97% to makeGo for two50.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:47HOU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.7%97% to makeGo for two53.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:53HOU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.9%97% to makeGo for two58.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:53HOU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.8%97% to makeGo for two68.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 5:53TULN Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.6%97% to makeGo for two47.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 5:36HOU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.1%97% to makeGo for two69.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:46HOU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.0%97% to makeGo for two86.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:03HOU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%97% to makeGo for two96.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHOUDrive 1INT TD7 plays · 36 yds · 1:1070% → 70%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
70.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 30 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
70.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 4 yds to the Tulan 41Similar
Q1 13:42
4TH & 4
OPP 39
-64
69.7%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted for a TD Macon Clark return for 64 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2970% → 70%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 9 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
50
+3
69.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 3 yds to the Tulan 47Similar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
69.2%
Tune, Clayton pass incomplete to Singleton, Jeremy, PENALTY TULANE pass interference (Monroe, Jaylon) 15 yards to the TULANE8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0130% → 30%
HOUDrive 4FUMBLE TD2 plays · -13 yds · 0:3370% → 68%
Q1 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+1
67.5%
Clayton Tune sacked by Kevin Henry for a loss of 13 yards Clayton Tune fumbled, forced by Kevin Henry, recovered by Tulan Jeffery Johnson , return for 0 yards , return for 1 yd, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4468% → 67%
Q1 8:52
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
67.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Chandler Smith for 8 yds to the Houst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6FG10 plays · 36 yds · 4:3834% → 37%
HOUDrive 7FUMBLE3 plays · 25 yds · 0:2862% → 62%
TULNDrive 8TD11 plays · 50 yds · 4:1938% → 52%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
50
+10
62.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 10 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
61.5%
Pratt, Michael rush for 13 yards to the HOUSTON27, PENALTY TULANE holding 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+16
60.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Stephon Huderson for 16 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+14
59.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jacob Robertson Jr. for 14 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.1%
Huderson, Stephon rush for loss of 1 yard to the HOUSTON2, PENALTY HOUSTON offside 0 yards to the HOUSTON1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD13 plays · 75 yds · 3:5952% → 56%
Q2 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
51.5%
Clayton Tune sacked by Dorian Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+19
50.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Mulbah Car for 19 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+17
50.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 17 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+39
50.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 39 yds to the Tulan 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
51.0%
Tune, Clayton pass incomplete to Stevenson, Marquez, PENALTY TULANE pass interference 1 yards to the TULANE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 2:0143% → 46%
HOUDrive 11TD11 plays · 68 yds · 3:4353% → 62%
TULNDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1441% → 40%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0360% → 56%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
59.8%
Marquez Stevenson run for 8 yds to the Houst 38 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Houst 28Similar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 12
OWN 28
-2
58.0%
Clayton Tune sacked by Jeffery Johnson and Patrick Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5644% → 42%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0058% → 59%
TULNDrive 16DOWNS8 plays · 7 yds · 1:5143% → 42%
HOUDrive 17TD11 plays · 57 yds · 5:0460% → 76%
Q3 12:26
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+16
57.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 16 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+6
58.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 6 yds to the Tulan 30Similar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
60.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 17 yds to the Tulan 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0030% → 54%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
70.6%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Stephon Huderson for 4 yds to the Tulan 24Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+40
70.6%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 40 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+12
66.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Amare Jones for 12 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
64.7%
Pratt, Michael pass incomplete to Jones, Amare, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference 15 yards to the HOUSTON9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULANE.Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
46.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 8 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2630% → 28%
Q3 4:07
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+24
72.1%
Ryan Wright punt for 57 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 24 yds to the Houst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21TD8 plays · 60 yds · 3:1375% → 88%
Q3 3:05
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+2
75.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Mulbah Car for 2 yds to the Tulan 36Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
75.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 3 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+6
74.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 6 yds to the Tulan 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5815% → 13%
HOUDrive 23TD2 plays · 43 yds · 0:3288% → 97%
TULNDrive 24FUMBLE5 plays · -7 yds · 0:546% → 5%
TULNDrive 25DOWNS6 plays · -2 yds · 1:086% → 5%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
94.0%
Pratt, Michael pass incomplete, PENALTY TULANE holding 10 yards to the HOUSTON38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 20
OPP 38
+15
94.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Houst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 8
OPP 21
-9
95.5%
Michael Pratt sacked by Taures Payne for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26PUNT10 plays · 17 yds · 4:2697% → 97%
TULNDrive 27DOWNS5 plays · 22 yds · 0:583% → 3%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
96.6%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Phat Watts for 13 yds to the Tulan 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28MISSED FG5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2698% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 29DOWNS13 plays · 37 yds · 3:452% → 2%
Q4 3:58
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+9
97.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Christian Daniels for 9 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
97.5%
Michael Pratt sacked by Payton Turner for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 35Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 14
OPP 35
+4
97.6%
Pratt, Michael pass incomplete to Daniels, Christian, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference 4 yards to the HOUSTON31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULANE.Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-7
97.5%
Michael Pratt sacked by Mannie Nunnery for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 30END OF GAME1 play · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:36
Merek Glover kickoff for 62 yds , Marquez Stevenson return for 97 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+23.1
TD · Q3 5:53
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 8 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)
-18.3
TD · Q3 7:53
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+14.8