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NAVY

Navy 27 at Tulane 24

TULN
2020 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2020 · Yulman Stadium
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:08 · Keon Howard pass incomplete to Mykel Jones
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Home team on offense+3.6Pregame prior+2.3Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Time remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:43: Phat Watts run for 3 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +9.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:03: Cameron Carroll run for 24 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +7.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:43: Nelson Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +7.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:46: Nelson Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +11.1 pts (now 22%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:22: Dalen Morris pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 32 yds for a TD (Dalen Morris pass to Devin Mathews for Two-Point Conversion) TULANE Penalty, personal foul (Larry Brooks) to the 50 yard line — NAVY win probability +33.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 10 of 10NAVY made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:59NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:59TULN 4th & 1 at NAVY 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:04TULN 4th & 5 at NAVY 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:04NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00TULN 4th & 1 at NAVY 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−1.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:42NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:41TULN 4th & 22 at TULN 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:12NAVY 4th & 12 at NAVY 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:39NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.8%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:52TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 32, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:14NAVY 4th & 16 at TULN 40, down 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.5%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    4.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:14TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 43, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:43TULN 4th & 9 at TULN 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:46TULN 4th & 4 at TULN 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:33NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:57NAVY 4th & 1 at TULN 36, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%−5.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−6.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:22TULN 4th & 5 at NAVY 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−3.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    60.8%−1.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:00NAVY 4th & 11 at TULN 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−4.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:08TULN 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%−4.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−7.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 9:59TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:43TULN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:03TULN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:43NAVY Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:46NAVY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:22NAVY Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.5%
Xavier Arline run for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
67.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
67.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
67.5%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-3
67.5%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
67.5%
Daniel Davies punt for 26 yds, downed at the Tulan 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:4967% → 69%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+42
67.2%
Tyjae Spears run for 42 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
67.6%
Tyjae Spears run for 5 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+16
67.6%
Keon Howard pass complete to Phat Watts for 16 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
67.6%
Keon Howard run for no gain to the Navy 3Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
69.2%
Cameron Carroll run for 3 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.4%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
68.4%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.6%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
68.7%
Daniel Davies punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Amare Jones at the Tulan 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4FG
16 plays · 54 yds · 5:5570% → 71%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
69.5%
Amare Jones run for 8 yds to the Tulan 49Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+3
69.7%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
69.7%
Keon Howard pass complete to Amare Jones for 16 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
69.7%
Amare Jones run for 6 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-3
69.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ygenio Booker for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+6
69.5%
Keon Howard pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 6 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+3
69.3%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
69.8%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
69.8%
Tyjae Spears run for 9 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+4
69.5%
Cameron Carroll run for 4 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
69.8%
TULANE Penalty, false start (Joey Claybrook) to the Navy 12Similar
Q1 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
-10
69.8%
[GUN], Carroll,C. rush over right guard for 6 yards to the NAVY6 (PERKINS, J;FAGOT, Diego), PENALTY TULANE holding (James,T.) 10 yards to the NAVY22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 22
0
69.7%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
+17
69.7%
Keon Howard pass complete to Sorrell Brown for 17 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
69.5%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Jha'Quan JacksonSimilar
Q1 2:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
70.8%
Merek Glover 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.8%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
70.8%
Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
71.0%
Myles Fells run for 3 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
71.2%
Daniel Davies punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Amare Jones at the Tulan 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6TD
12 plays · 63 yds · 3:3172% → 83%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
71.6%
Tyjae Spears run for 1 yd to the Tulan 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+10
71.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Jacob Robertson Jr. for 10 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
72.2%
Keon Howard pass incomplete, broken up by Diego FagotSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
72.1%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+21
71.6%
Keon Howard run for 6 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Kevin Brennan) to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
72.4%
Tyjae Spears run for no gain to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
72.3%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Duece Watts, broken up by Michael McMorrisSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+9
71.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Tyrick James for 9 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+14
71.3%
Tyjae Spears run for 14 yds to the Navy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
74.0%
Tyjae Spears run for 2 yds to the Navy 3Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.3%
Phat Watts run for 3 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
80.5%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
80.4%
CJ Williams run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+2
80.6%
Chance Warren run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 11:42
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
80.7%
Daniel Davies punt for 41 yds , Amare Jones returns for no gain to the Tulan 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
84.0%
Stephon Huderson run for no gain to the Tulan 32Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
84.0%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Tyrick James, broken up by Kevin BrennanSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-12
83.7%
Keon Howard sacked by Diego Fagot for a loss of 12 yards to the Tulan 20Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 22
OWN 20
0
83.1%
Ryan Wright punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
50
+4
80.8%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
80.8%
Dalen Morris run for no gain to the Tulan 46Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 6
OPP 46
-6
81.0%
Chance Warren run for a loss of 6 yards to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
82.2%
Daniel Davies punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulan 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10TD
7 plays · 93 yds · 3:0185% → 93%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
85.3%
Amare Jones run for 8 yds to the Tulan 15Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+12
85.4%
Amare Jones run for 12 yds to the Tulan 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
85.5%
Cameron Carroll run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 26Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+19
85.4%
Keon Howard run for 19 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+29
85.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Tyrick James for 29 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
86.0%
Keon Howard pass complete to Christian Daniels for 2 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+24
93.0%
Cameron Carroll run for 24 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:249% → 9%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.8%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to CJ WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
90.8%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Mark Walker for 14 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
90.3%
Dalen Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
90.4%
Dalen Morris run for 6 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+1
90.2%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 46Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
90.9%
Dalen Morris run for no gain to the Navy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12INT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
94.1%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
94.0%
Stephon Huderson run for 9 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+5
93.7%
Stephon Huderson run for 5 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
94.1%
Keon Howard run for 13 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
94.0%
Keon Howard pass intercepted Cameron Kinley return for 4 yds to the Navy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
91.9%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+7
91.8%
Nelson Smith run for 7 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0893% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.3%
Tyjae Spears run for 1 yd to the Tulan 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
93.3%
Keon Howard pass complete to Phat Watts for 6 yds to the Tulan 32Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
93.4%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Jacob Robertson Jr.Similar
Q3 13:52
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+2
93.1%
Ryan Wright punt for 39 yds , Mark Walker returns for 2 yds to the Navy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15MISSED FG
13 plays · 29 yds · 5:269% → 5%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
90.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 11 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
90.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+1
90.9%
Dalen Morris run for 1 yd to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+7
91.0%
Myles Fells pass complete to Dalen Morris for 7 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
90.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 5 yds to the Tulan 43Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
90.0%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+5
90.1%
Jamale Carothers run for 5 yds to the Tulan 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-15
89.9%
[GUN], CAROTHERS, J rush over left tackle for no gain to the TULANE34 (Clark,M.), PENALTY NAVY personal foul (SELF, Justin) 15 yards to the TULANE49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 25
OPP 49
-3
90.9%
Dalen Morris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 28
OWN 48
+10
91.4%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Chance Warren for 10 yds to the Tulan 42Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 18
OPP 42
+2
91.4%
Dalen Morris run for 2 yds to the Tulan 40Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 16
OPP 40
+57
95.0%
Bijan Nichols 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
96.4%
Amare Jones run for 3 yds to the Tulan 43Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
96.4%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Jha'Quan JacksonSimilar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
96.3%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Amare JonesSimilar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+26
96.0%
Ryan Wright punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mark Walker at the TULANE 16 TULANE Penalty, personal foul (Chase Kuerschen) to the Navy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 0:535% → 13%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
94.8%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 24 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+44
94.7%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Mark Walker for 44 yds to the Tulan 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.5%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.2%
Tyjae Spears run for 2 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
93.2%
Tyjae Spears run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 26Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
92.8%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Phat WattsSimilar
Q3 6:43
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
92.4%
Ryan Wright punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Mark Walker at the Navy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:2310% → 22%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
90.4%
Jamale Carothers run for 6 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+5
90.3%
Jamale Carothers run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
50
+48
90.0%
Jamale Carothers run for 48 yds to the Tulan 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.5%
Dalen Morris run for 1 yd to the Tulan 1Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.8%
Dalen Morris run for no gain to the Tulan 1Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.6%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.8%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
81.8%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Tulan 31Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
81.3%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Tyrick James, broken up by Diego FagotSimilar
Q3 2:46
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
80.7%
Ryan Wright punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
80.7%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to CJ WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
81.1%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
81.2%
Dalen Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:33
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
82.2%
Daniel Davies punt for 63 yds, downed at the Tulan 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 1
-1
83.6%
Cameron Carroll run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:0119% → 53%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
80.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 12 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
78.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Tulan 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+5
79.2%
TULANE Penalty, offside defense (Marvin Moody) to the Tulan 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+1
78.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Tulan 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+2
78.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Tulan 36Similar
Q4 13:57
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+4
80.7%
Dalen Morris run for 4 yds to the Tulan 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
46.8%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 32 yds for a TD (Dalen Morris pass to Devin Mathews for Two-Point Conversion) TULANE Penalty, personal foul (Larry Brooks) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0059% → 61%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
59.1%
Tyjae Spears run for 28 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
64.4%
Tyjae Spears run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+4
64.3%
Amare Jones run for 4 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-1
63.5%
Tyjae Spears run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
60.7%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Amare JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:0151% → 44%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
49.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+6
49.2%
Dalen Morris run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 2
50
+2
48.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
47.8%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Tulan 48Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
49.7%
Dalen Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-1
52.0%
Jamale Carothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 49Similar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 11
OPP 49
+34
56.2%
Daniel Davies punt for 49 yds for a touchback NAVY Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0060% → 62%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
60.1%
Cameron Carroll run for 11 yds to the Tulan 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
63.9%
Cameron Carroll run for 8 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+7
65.2%
Cameron Carroll run for 7 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
65.1%
Cameron Carroll run for no gain to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
64.9%
Cameron Carroll run for 2 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+5
64.1%
Cameron Carroll run for 5 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 3
OPP 32
0
61.7%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Mykel JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 27Uncategorized
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:3849% → 60%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
50.6%
Chance Warren run for 20 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
45.2%
Dalen Morris run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 12
50
+15
47.8%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 15 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
42.2%
Jamale Carothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 36Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+3
45.0%
Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+9
41.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 9 yds to the Tulan 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
38.1%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Tulan 24Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
38.2%
Dalen Morris run for 7 yds to the Tulan 17Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+1
39.8%
Dalen Morris run for 1 yd to the Tulan 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-39.8
TD · Q4 13:22
Dalen Morris pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 32 yds for a TD (Dalen Morris pass to Devin Mathews for Two-Point Conversion) TULANE Penalty, personal foul (Larry Brooks) to the 50 yard line
-33.9
TD · Q3 2:46
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com