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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:18 · Andrew Osteen punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Willie Erdman at the Temp 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:19: Otis Anderson run for 14 yds for a TD UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Temp 8 (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +0.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
- TD · Q1 6:51: Greg McCrae run for 1 yd for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +0.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
- FG · Q2 14:20: Rory Bell 30 yd FG GOOD — TEM win probability +0.6 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:12: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 23 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:21: Daniel Obarski 25 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8TEM made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
- Q1 13:00UCF 4th & 1 at TEM 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.3%70% to convertField goal95.2%−0.291% to makePunt94.7%−0.6average punt
- Q1 10:19TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.6%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%average punt
- Q1 6:45TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 44, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q1 4:14UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 8, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snapGo for it95.7%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.8%average punt
- Q2 14:20TEM 4th & 11 at UCF 13, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.4% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.223% to convertField goalTheir call3.4%85% to makePunt2.5%−0.9average punt
- Q2 14:15UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 34, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snapGo for it95.3%−0.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.7%average punt
- Q2 12:57TEM 4th & 9 at UCF 48, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%average punt
- Q2 9:50UCF 4th & 17 at UCF 2, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snapGo for it93.9%−1.111% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.0%average punt
- Q2 8:40TEM 4th & 6 at UCF 32, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.6%40% to convertField goal4.5%−0.151% to makePunt4.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 2:36UCF 4th & 15 at TEM 28, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snapGo for it94.5%−0.517% to convertField goalTheir call95.0%60% to makePunt93.7%−1.3average punt
- Q2 0:45TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 45, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.3%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%average punt
- Q3 13:12TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 47, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q3 7:21UCF 4th & 7 at TEM 8, up 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.0%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call99.1%90% to makePunt97.8%−1.3average punt
- Q3 7:21TEM 4th & 1 at UCF 48, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%−0.2average punt
- Q3 3:59TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 37, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:18UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 17, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 7:59TEM 4th & 4 at UCF 7, down 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.141% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%91% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 7:59UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 40, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 5:49TEM 4th & 15 at TEM 40, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:00UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:19UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:51UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:12UCF Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:59UCF Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:24TEM Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1FUMBLE3 plays · -3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
96.1%
Re-al Mitchell sacked by Eriq Gilyard for a loss of 7 yards to the Temp 16 Re-al Mitchell fumbled, recovered by UCF Eriq Gilyard , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the Temp 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD4 plays · 22 yds · 1:0596% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3INT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
95.8%
Re-al Mitchell pass complete to Jadan Blue for 3 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
95.8%
MITCHELL,Re-al pass incomplete to MACK,Branden, PENALTY UCF pass interference (BROWN, Davonte) 8 yards to the TEMPLE38, 1ST DOWN TEMPLE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 12
OWN 36
-6
95.8%
Re-al Mitchell pass intercepted Tatum Bethune return for 6 yds to the Temp 27 Tatum Bethune fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD3 plays · 27 yds · 0:3596% → 96%
TEMDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
UCFDrive 6TD7 plays · 65 yds · 1:4896% → 96%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+50
95.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 50 yds to the Temp 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 6:45
4TH & 8
OWN 44
+49
96.3%
Adam Barry punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 14 UCF Penalty, Offensive holding (Corey Thornton) to the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 4:14
4TH & 9
OWN 8
+6
96.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 57 yds , Willie Erdman returns for 6 yds to the Temp 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9FG12 plays · 46 yds · 4:004% → 4%
Q1 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+20
96.5%
Re-al Mitchell pass complete to Jadan Blue for 20 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+26
96.5%
Re-al Mitchell pass complete to Jadan Blue for 26 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 25
OPP 27
+13
96.4%
Re-al Mitchell pass complete to Branden Mack for 13 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-15
96.3%
MITCHELL,Re-al pass complete to BARBON,Jose for 7 yards to the UCF5 (ROBINSON, A.), PENALTY TEMPLE pass interference (MACK,Branden) 15 yards to the UCF27, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
96.0%
GABRIEL, Dillon pass complete to ROBINSON, J. for 21 yards to the TEMPLE43 (ODOM,Alex), PENALTY UCF holding (SCHNEIDER, Cole) 10 yards to the UCF26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 20
OWN 26
0
96.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon Williams, broken up by Amir TylerSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+8
95.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 8 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
95.8%
Andrew Osteen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Willie Erdman at the Temp 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
95.8%
Re-al Mitchell pass incomplete to Branden Mack TEMPLE Penalty, illegal procedure ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+17
95.8%
Re-al Mitchell pass complete to Jadan Blue for 17 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
95.6%
RULEY,Tayvon rush for 2 yards to the UCF47 (GRANT, Richie), PENALTY TEMPLE holding (QUARSHIE,Wisdom) 10 yards to the TEMPLE41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
95.8%
Adam Barry punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
TEMDrive 13DOWNS6 plays · 17 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q2 8:40
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+2
95.3%
Re-al Mitchell pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 2 yds to the UCF 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14MISSED FG10 plays · 40 yds · 2:4596% → 95%
Q2 5:21
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+6
95.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 6 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
95.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 7 yds to the Temp 31Similar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
95.8%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Arnold Ebiketie for a loss of 5 yards to the Temp 28Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 15
OPP 28
0
95.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'Keefe, broken up by Jalen WareSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:515% → 5%
Q2 0:45
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
95.2%
Adam Barry punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · 6 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17TD6 plays · 45 yds · 1:3996% → 99%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the UCF 46 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UCF Dillon GabrielSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 19
OWN 46
+30
95.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 30 yds to the TEMPLE 24 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+23
98.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 23 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 22 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 13:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.5%
Re-al Mitchell pass complete to Jose Barbon for 10 yds to the Temp 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19FG9 plays · 72 yds · 2:3399% → 100%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 7 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
99.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 10 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+23
99.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 23 yds to the Temp 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20INT7 plays · 29 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:21
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+7
99.7%
Re-al Mitchell pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 7 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 7:21
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+2
99.7%
Kyle Dobbins run for 2 yds to the UCF 46 Kyle Dobbins fumbled, forced by Christopher DeLoach, recovered by Temp Kyle Dobbins for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.7%
Re-al Mitchell pass intercepted Corey Thornton return for no gain to the UCF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD2 plays · 91 yds · 0:27100% → 100%
TEMDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23FUMBLE1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
99.8%
Bentavious Thompson run for 1 yd to the UCF 12 Bentavious Thompson fumbled, forced by Arnold Ebiketie, recovered by Temp Amir TylerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 24TD3 plays · 12 yds · 1:150% → 0%
UCFDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
TEMDrive 26FG12 plays · 59 yds · 4:450% → 0%
Q4 12:44
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+5
99.9%
Re-al Mitchell pass complete to Jadan Blue for 5 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+14
99.9%
MITCHELL,Re-al pass complete to BLUE,Jadan for loss of 1 yard to the UCF28 (GREEN, Kam'ron), PENALTY UCF personal foul (CELISCAR, Josh) 14 yards to the UCF13, 1ST DOWN TEMPLE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 3
OPP 6
-1
99.9%
Re-al Mitchell sacked by Cam Goode for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:59
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Andrew Osteen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Willie Erdman at the Temp 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 28PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
99.7%
Matt Duncan sacked by Kervins Choute for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 43Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 12
OWN 43
-3
99.7%
Matt Duncan sacked by Josh Celiscar for a loss of 3 yards to the Temp 40Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 15
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Matt Duncan pass incomplete to Kwesi Evans, broken up by Justin HodgesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 29END OF GAME7 plays · 36 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:12
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 23 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)
+3.3
FG · Q3 7:21
Daniel Obarski 25 yd FG GOOD
+0.7
TD · Q1 6:51
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)
+0.6