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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:50 · Adam Barry punt for 41 yds , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 18 yds to the Temp 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:50: Cameron Carroll run for 13 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +7.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 8:03: Michael Pratt run for 9 yds to the Tulan 44 — TULN win probability +4.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:36: Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 31 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +9.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:43: Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 5 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +7.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:01: Michael Pratt run for 9 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 15:00TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snapGo for it69.3%−<0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.3%average punt
- Q1 10:37TEM 4th & 5 at TULN 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snapGo for it31.5%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call31.5%92% to makePunt31.0%−0.6average punt
- Q1 8:19TEM 4th & 5 at midfield, up 3Close callPunted · 32.3% before the snapGo for it32.4%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:23TEM 4th & 11 at TEM 48, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snapGo for it32.9%−0.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.2%average punt
- Q2 11:55TULN 4th & 7 at TEM 23, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.8% before the snapGo for it64.5%−0.336% to convertField goalTheir call64.8%70% to makePunt61.3%−3.5average punt
- Q2 9:27TEM 4th & 7 at TULN 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snapGo for it35.4%−0.137% to convertField goal34.6%−0.925% to makePuntTheir call35.5%average punt
- Q2 6:50TEM 4th & 13 at TEM 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snapGo for it24.0%−1.819% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.8%average punt
- Q2 2:29TULN 4th & 13 at TEM 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.3% before the snapGo for it72.1%−0.821% to convertField goalTheir call72.9%47% to makePunt71.8%−1.1average punt
- Q2 1:38TEM 4th & 14 at TEM 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snapGo for it23.0%−1.618% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.6%average punt
- Q2 1:26TULN 4th & 8 at TULN 37, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snapGo for it72.5%−0.734% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.2%average punt
- Q3 14:56TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 22, down 7Close callPunted · 24.3% before the snapGo for it24.5%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.3%−0.1average punt
- Q3 9:55TEM 4th & 10 at TULN 35, down 7Close callWent for it · 24.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.3%−0.230% to convertField goal24.5%45% to makePunt23.6%−0.9average punt
- Q4 15:00TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 45, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.5%−0.7average punt
- Q4 11:53TEM 4th & 16 at TEM 16, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q2 6:50TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.3%97% to makeGo for two72.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:36TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.0%97% to makeGo for two87.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:43TULN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:01TULN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:53TULN Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTULNDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2FG8 plays · 54 yds · 3:1737% → 38%
TULNDrive 3FUMBLE7 plays · 44 yds · 0:0062% → 63%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
62.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 9 yds to the Tulan 20Similar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
62.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Will Wallace for 9 yds to the Tulan 40Similar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
62.6%
Stephon Huderson run for 9 yds to the Temp 45 Stephon Huderson fumbled, forced by William Kwenkeu, recovered by Temp Freddie JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q1 8:19
4TH & 5
50
+16
61.8%
Adam Barry punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulan 26 , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 16 yds to the Tulan 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5INT6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
TEMDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+22
61.1%
Trad Beatty pass complete to Randle Jones for 22 yds to the Temp 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+5
60.7%
Trad Beatty pass complete to Branden Mack for 5 yds to the Temp 41Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+8
60.4%
Trad Beatty pass complete to Branden Mack for 8 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
60.2%
Trad Beatty pass complete to Ronnie Stevenson for 4 yds to the Tulan 47Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 6
OPP 47
-5
60.3%
Trad Beatty pass complete to Re'Mahn Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the Temp 48Similar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 11
OWN 48
+62
61.5%
Adam Barry punt for 52 yds for a touchback TULANE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7FG11 plays · 67 yds · 4:1260% → 63%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
60.0%
[Shotgun], Pratt,M. deep pass incomplete to Jackson,Jh., PENALTY TULANE holding (Dublin,C.) 10 yards to the TULANE10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
61.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Mykel Jones for 18 yds to the Temp 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
62.1%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Jha'Quan Jackson, broken up by Christian BraswellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 30 yds · 2:2839% → 40%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
60.6%
Re-al Mitchell pass complete to Jadan Blue for 9 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
59.8%
Re-al Mitchell pass incomplete to Randle Jones, broken up by Ajani KerrSimilar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+14
59.9%
Re-al Mitchell run for 14 yds to the Tulan 48 Re-al Mitchell fumbled, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
58.8%
Re-al Mitchell pass incomplete to Jadan Blue, broken up by Chase KuerschenSimilar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
59.0%
Re-al Mitchell pass complete to Randle Jones for 2 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9TD6 plays · 93 yds · 2:2763% → 73%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+52
62.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 52 yds to the Temp 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q2 6:50
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+18
71.9%
Adam Barry punt for 41 yds , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 18 yds to the Temp 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11MISSED FG7 plays · 11 yds · 3:0173% → 71%
Q2 5:30
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+15
71.7%
[Shotgun], Pratt,M. sacked for loss of 3 yards to the TEMPLE49 (EBIKETIE,Arnold), PENALTY TEMPLE personal foul (EBIKETIE,Arnold) 15 yards to the TEMPLE31, 1ST DOWN TULANE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 6
OPP 27
-7
72.9%
Michael Pratt sacked by Arnold Ebiketie for a loss of 7 yards to the Temp 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5129% → 27%
Q2 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-3
71.4%
Trad Beatty sacked by Dorian Williams and Adonis Friloux for a loss of 3 yards to the Temp 31Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 13
OWN 31
-1
72.6%
Trad Beatty pass complete to Tayvon Ruley for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 30Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 14
OWN 30
+13
73.2%
Adam Barry punt for 48 yds , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 13 yds to the Tulan 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14END OF HALF4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0428% → 29%
TEMDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q3 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 16
-8
71.4%
[Shotgun], MITCHELL,Re-al rush up middle for 9 yards to the TEMPLE25 (Clark,M.), PENALTY TEMPLE holding (MOORE,Isaac) 8 yards to the TEMPLE8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 2
OWN 22
+1
72.8%
Adam Barry punt for 41 yds , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 1 yd to the Tulan 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16FUMBLE8 plays · 62 yds · 0:0074% → 75%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
73.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Mykel Jones for 13 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+15
74.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 15 yds to the Temp 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+10
74.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 10 yds to the Temp 24Similar
Q3 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
75.0%
Duece Watts run for 1 yd Duece Watts fumbled, forced by M.J. Griffin, recovered by Temp Jordan MageeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17DOWNS6 plays · 45 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
72.5%
Trad Beatty pass complete to Randle Jones for 10 yds to the Temp 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+35
72.1%
Trad Beatty pass complete to Jadan Blue for 35 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
72.9%
Trad Beatty pass incomplete to Branden Mack, broken up by Willie LanghamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:2777% → 89%
Q3 8:03
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+9
77.9%
Cameron Carroll run for 9 yds to the Temp 47 Cameron Carroll fumbled, forced by Christian Braswell, recovered by Tulan Cameron Carroll for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+31
88.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 31 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19INT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
85.8%
Trad Beatty pass complete to Randle Jones for 1 yd to the Temp 23Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-4
86.0%
Trad Beatty sacked by Jeffery Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Temp 19Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 13
OWN 19
-14
86.3%
Trad Beatty pass intercepted Willie Langham return for 14 yds to the Temp 30 Willie Langham fumbled, forced by Branden Mack,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20TD5 plays · 30 yds · 2:3290% → 98%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-7
90.0%
Michael Pratt sacked by Daniel Archibong for a loss of 7 yards to the Temp 37Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 17
OPP 37
+26
89.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 26 yds to the Temp 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
97.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 5 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21DOWNS8 plays · 14 yds · 1:373% → 2%
Q3 1:37
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+2
97.1%
Re-al Mitchell pass complete to Randle Jones for 2 yds to the Temp 31Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+5
97.1%
Re-al Mitchell pass complete to Re'Mahn Davis for 5 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+5
97.9%
Re-al Mitchell pass complete to Jadan Blue for 5 yds to the Temp 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22TD3 plays · 40 yds · 1:1599% → 100%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
98.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 11 yds to the Temp 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:53
3RD & 12
OWN 20
-4
99.9%
Trad Beatty sacked by Darius Hodges for a loss of 4 yards to the Temp 16Similar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 16
OWN 16
+7
99.9%
Adam Barry punt for 36 yds , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 7 yds to the Tulan 23 TULANE Penalty, Offensive holding (Chase Kuerschen) to the Tulan 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24TD11 plays · 55 yds · 6:05100% → 100%
Q4 9:58
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+6
99.9%
Ygenio Booker run for 6 yds to the Temp 29 Ygenio Booker fumbled, forced by Christian Braswell,Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-5
99.9%
[Shotgun], Howard,K. pass incomplete to Thompson,R., PENALTY TULANE ineligible downfield on pass (Haynesworth,S.) 5 yards to the TEMPLE15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 15 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 25Uncategorized8 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:36
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 31 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
+9.4
TD · Q3 1:43
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 5 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
+7.8
TD · Q2 6:50
Cameron Carroll run for 13 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
+7.5