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SMU

SMU 38 at East Carolina 52

ECU
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2020 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:56 · Jonn Young punt for 50 yds , Tyler Page returns for 39 yds to the ECaro 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Home team on offense+26.5Score differential+18.4Pregame prior−8.6Garbage-time factor+10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Tyler Snead pass complete to Blake Proehl for 35 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +10.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:01: Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 14 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +16.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:16: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +14.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:56: Shane Buechele pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 26 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — SMU win probability +4.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:05: Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK) — SMU win probability +9.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00SMU 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:54ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 35, tied
    Close callWent for it · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:10SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:27ECU 4th & 1 at SMU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%−1.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:01SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 17, down 21
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:16SMU 4th & 20 at SMU 15, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−7.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:00SMU 4th & 23 at SMU 23, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−1.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ECU 4th & 4 at SMU 49, up 38
    Close callPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:12ECU 4th & 11 at ECU 24, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:09SMU 4th & 3 at ECU 33, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:56ECU 4th & 19 at ECU 16, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−2.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:00SMU 4th & 16 at ECU 19, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:15SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 17, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:58ECU 4th & 10 at SMU 25, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:05ECU 4th & 19 at ECU 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:42ECU 4th & 14 at SMU 39, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 9:08ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:07ECU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:27SMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:00ECU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:01ECU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:16ECU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:00ECU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:12SMU Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:56SMU Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:15ECU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:28SMU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 7:05SMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
25.9%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+17
25.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 17 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
25.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+6
25.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
50
0
25.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee Rice, broken up by Nolan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
50
0
25.9%
Chris Naggar punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:4627% → 31%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
27.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
27.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 9 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
26.9%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
27.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+7
26.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 7 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
26.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+25
26.9%
Luke Larsen run for 25 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
27.2%
Jsi Hatfield run for 15 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
27.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 16 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
31.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 9 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5869% → 69%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
30.7%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
30.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
31.3%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the SMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:5932% → 36%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
32.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 22 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
32.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the SMU 11Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
36.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 11 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4065% → 67%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+18
34.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 18 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
34.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 14 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
34.1%
Shane Buechele run for 7 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
33.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tyler Page, broken up by Bruce BivensSimilar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+9
33.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Judah Bell for 9 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
33.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 9 yds to the ECaro 14Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+13
33.7%
Tyler Lavine run for 13 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
33.7%
Shane Buechele run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 6Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
33.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2735% → 46%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 5 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
35.5%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+20
35.4%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 5 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Mike Williams) to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
36.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+5
36.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
36.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
35.6%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
45.6%
Tyler Snead pass complete to Blake Proehl for 35 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7FUMBLE
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:0057% → 59%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
43.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 14 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
42.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for no gain to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
42.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+7
42.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
41.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Keke Burns for 2 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+15
41.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Judah Bell for 15 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
41.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Judah Bell for 4 yds Judah Bell fumbled, forced by David Laney, recovered by ECaro Jireh Wilson , return for 39 yds to the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 1:0050% → 67%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
49.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+17
49.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 17 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
66.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 14 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0036% → 37%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
63.7%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+3
64.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+6
63.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 6 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+3
63.5%
Chris Naggar punt for 46 yds , Tyler Snead returns for 3 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:0572% → 86%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
72.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 14 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
72.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
72.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+16
71.3%
AHLERS, Holton deep out pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J. (STEPHENS, B.), PENALTY SMU pass interference (STEPHENS, B.) 16 yards to the SMU29, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
72.2%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+19
72.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Cam Burnette for 19 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
71.8%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
86.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-11
86.8%
Shane Buechele sacked by Xavier Smith for a loss of 11 yards to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
87.2%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+36
87.2%
Chris Naggar punt for 51 yds , Tyler Snead returns for 36 yds to the EASTCRLINA 49 SMU Penalty, sideline interference off-setting ( Yards) to the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:4289% → 92%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
88.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+8
88.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 18 yds to the SMU 12 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (C.J. Johnson) to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+6
88.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the SMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
92.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 16 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · -2 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
93.1%
Tyler Lavine run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
93.5%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-15
93.5%
BUECHELE, Shane crossing pass complete to RICE, Rashee for 18 yards to the ECU47 (POWELL, Juan), PENALTY SMU pass interference (PAGE, Tyler) 15 yards to the SMU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 26
OWN 20
-5
93.6%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 31
OWN 15
-5
93.6%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 10Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 36
OWN 10
+13
93.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 13 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 23
OWN 23
0
93.6%
Chris Naggar punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 1:3094% → 96%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
93.8%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+9
93.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 9 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+24
93.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 24 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
93.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 12 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
94.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
94.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Brandon StephensSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+29
96.3%
Jake Verity 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+18
96.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 18 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
96.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 6 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
96.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
96.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete, broken up by Turner CoxeSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
96.5%
Jonn Young punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:423% → 3%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
97.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 6 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+9
97.2%
Shane Buechele run for 9 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
97.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 13 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
97.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
97.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+13
97.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 13 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
96.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 11 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
96.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tyler LavineSimilar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+13
96.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 13 yds to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
96.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 5 yds to the ECaro 9Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+7
96.4%
BUECHELE, Shane middle pass incomplete to PAGE, Tyler, PENALTY ECU pass interference (LANEY, David) 7 yards to the ECU2, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the ECaro 1Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.2%
Shane Buechele run for 1 yd for a TD (Shane Buechele pass to Rashee Rice for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler Snead, broken up by Trevor DenbowSimilar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 24Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
98.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Brandon Stephens EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
98.7%
Jonn Young punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:132% → 7%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.5%
Tyler Page pass incomplete to Austin UpshawSimilar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
98.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 7 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+18
98.4%
Shane Buechele run for 3 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Rick D'Abreu) to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the ECaro 40Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
98.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee Rice, broken up by Malik FlemingSimilar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+7
98.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 7 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+7
97.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Judah Bell for 7 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
93.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 26 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.6%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
94.7%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Junior Aho for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 24Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-8
94.5%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Will Jones and Nelson Paul for a loss of 8 yards to the ECaro 16Similar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+39
94.1%
Jonn Young punt for 50 yds , Tyler Page returns for 39 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21FG
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:375% → 3%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
94.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 9 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+5
94.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the ECaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
94.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Judah Bell for 4 yds to the ECaro 9Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+2
94.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the ECaro 7Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 4
OPP 7
-12
95.2%
Shane Buechele sacked by D'Anta Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the ECaro 19Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 16
OPP 19
+36
97.0%
Chris Naggar 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4597% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+22
97.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 22 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+45
97.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 37 yds to the EASTCRLINA 16 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, tripping (Brandon Crossley) to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
97.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 1 yd to the SMU 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
97.3%
AHLERS, Holton sideline pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J. (STEPHENS, B.), PENALTY SMU pass interference (STEPHENS, B.) 5 yards to the SMU2, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.6%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
99.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Austin UpshawSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+2
99.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 2 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+1
99.7%
Shane Buechele run for 1 yd to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 13:15
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
99.7%
Chris Naggar punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24MISSED FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:58100% → 100%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+27
99.7%
Jsi Hatfield run for 27 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
99.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jeremy Lewis for no gain to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-3
99.7%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
99.8%
Jake Verity 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:300% → 2%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Judah Bell for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
99.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+15
99.9%
BUECHELE, Shane deep out pass incomplete, QB hurry by SMITH, Xavier, PENALTY ECU roughing passer (McKINNIE, D'Ang) 15 yards to the SMU48, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+32
99.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 32 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
99.8%
BUECHELE, Shane sideline pass incomplete to UPSHAW, Austin (JOHNSON, Nolan), PENALTY ECU pass interference (JOHNSON, Nolan) 15 yards to the ECU5, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27TD
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:232% → 11%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
98.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 10 yds to the ECaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 28FUMBLE
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:0295% → 98%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
95.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 28Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+38
94.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 38 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
97.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 14 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-8
97.9%
Jsi Hatfield run for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 28 Jsi Hatfield fumbled, recovered by SMU Terrance NewmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 29INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
94.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 4 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+7
93.8%
Shane Buechele run for 7 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
93.8%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Ja'Quan McMillian return for no gain to the ECaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 30PUNT
8 plays · -9 yds · 0:1898% → 99%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
98.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Justin Chase) to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+5
98.2%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 5 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
98.5%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-11
98.8%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 11 yards to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 19
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 31INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
98.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Judah BellSimilar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-31
98.3%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Ja'Quan McMillian return for 31 yds to the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 32PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
99.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-1
99.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+1
99.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 9
OPP 34
-5
98.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
98.9%
Jonn Young punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the SMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
98.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Judah Bell for 4 yds to the SMU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:01
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 14 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
+16.7
TD · Q2 6:16
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
+14.2
TD · Q1 0:00
Tyler Snead pass complete to Blake Proehl for 35 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
+10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com