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SMU

SMU 24 at Tulsa 28

TLSA
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:37 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the SMU 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Home team on offense−12.4Score differential−6.0Garbage-time factor−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Pregame prior−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:58: Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK) — SMU win probability +8.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:15: Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 20 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +7.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:51: T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +12.2 pts (now 31%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:31: Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 35 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +29.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 2:11: Zach Smith pass complete to James Palmer for 4 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +45.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:06SMU 4th & 9 at TLSA 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    53.0%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:18TLSA 4th & 17 at SMU 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−3.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:37TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:30SMU 4th & 22 at TLSA 45, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−1.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    77.6%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:37SMU 4th & 16 at TLSA 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−2.0
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−4.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:21TLSA 4th & 21 at TLSA 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−1.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 25, up 17
    Close callPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:11TLSA 4th & 1 at SMU 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    18.4%−2.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−9.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:37SMU 4th & 8 at TLSA 33, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:33SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−5.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:16SMU 4th & 8 at TLSA 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    60.0%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:38TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−3.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:22SMU 4th & 11 at TLSA 33, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.2%−1.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    67.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−3.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:29TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 38, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:02SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−2.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:39SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.3%−8.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:47SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:19SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:58SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:15TLSA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:51TLSA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:31TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:11TLSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:4753% → 52%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
47.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 22 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
47.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-5
47.1%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Marcus Bryant) to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+16
47.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 16 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
47.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 8 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 2
OPP 34
-10
47.1%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Beau Morris) to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 12
OPP 44
0
47.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+3
47.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 3 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
47.6%
Chris Naggar punt for 36 yds, downed at the Tulsa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2INT TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1948% → 46%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
47.6%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Tyler Smith) to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+4
47.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 4 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+3
47.7%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 5
OWN 10
-18
46.1%
Zach Smith pass intercepted for a TD Brandon Crossley return for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:3246% → 46%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
46.3%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-9
46.3%
Zach Smith run for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulsa 19 Zach Smith fumbled, recovered by SMUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:4154% → 58%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
45.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 12
OPP 21
-10
45.5%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marcus Bryant) to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 22
OPP 31
+10
45.6%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Allie Green IV) to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
45.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
45.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tyler PageSimilar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 6
OPP 17
-5
45.1%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Beau Morris) to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+22
42.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 22 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5MISSED FG
18 plays · 58 yds · 4:5443% → 40%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
43.3%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
43.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+12
43.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 12 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
43.3%
SMU Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+6
43.5%
Deneric Prince run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
43.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 15 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
43.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 8 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+10
43.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 10 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
43.5%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+3
43.1%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+7
42.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 7 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
42.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
42.8%
Zach Smith sacked by Turner Coxe for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
40.5%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Dylan Couch) to the SMU 17Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
0
40.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q1 3:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+34
39.7%
Zack Long 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:1461% → 72%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+31
38.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 16 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaxon Player) to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
38.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+3
38.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 3 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
38.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
37.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+9
37.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
36.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 19 yds to the Tulsa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
36.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1531% → 29%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.6%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
30.3%
T.K. Wilkerson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
29.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
29.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT
14 plays · 23 yds · 4:0273% → 77%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
27.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
27.0%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Everitt Rogers) to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
26.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 4 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+4
26.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
25.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 10 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
24.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+1
24.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
24.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+5
25.0%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
23.6%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Beau Morris) to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+2
23.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 13
OPP 36
0
22.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tyler PageSimilar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 13
OPP 36
-9
23.0%
Shane Buechele sacked by Anthony Goodlow for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 22
OPP 45
0
23.0%
Chris Naggar punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:1025% → 33%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
25.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 10 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
25.7%
Deneric Prince run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+9
25.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 9 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
25.7%
Keylon Stokes run for 4 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
26.4%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+11
25.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 11 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
25.9%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 2 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+9
25.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 9 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
32.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 20 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10FG
15 plays · 37 yds · 3:2270% → 77%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
30.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 11
OWN 25
-9
30.1%
Shane Buechele sacked by Zaven Collins for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 25 SMU Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Shane Buechele) to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+5
30.6%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+2
30.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+15
30.6%
TULSA Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
28.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 8 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+3
27.7%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
27.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 20 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
27.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
26.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-5
27.0%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Cameron Ervin) to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 13
OPP 25
-3
27.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 16
OPP 28
+45
22.8%
Chris Naggar 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 1:0925% → 33%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
25.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 18 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
26.8%
Zach Smith sacked by Will Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 17
OWN 36
+5
33.6%
Zach Smith run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-9
32.3%
Zach Smith sacked by Turner Coxe for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 21
OWN 32
0
32.5%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 51 yds, downed at the SMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1381% → 78%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
19.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 8 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 2
OWN 25
0
19.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
19.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
22.3%
Chris Naggar punt for 58 yds, downed at the Tulsa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13DOWNS
16 plays · 74 yds · 4:4323% → 22%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
23.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
23.9%
T.K. Wilkerson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-10
22.7%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tiller Bucktrot) to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 21
OWN 28
+10
22.2%
Deneric Prince run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+15
22.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 15 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
23.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 6 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+23
23.9%
Deneric Prince run for 23 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
24.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
24.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+14
23.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 14 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
24.0%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
23.6%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.1%
T.K. Wilkerson run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 10:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
22.0%
T.K. Wilkerson run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:3182% → 84%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
17.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tyler PageSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+32
17.3%
Shane Buechele run for 17 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (Allie Green IV) to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
17.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-5
16.1%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Tommy McIntyre) to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+32
16.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 32 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
15.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 1 yd to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+1
15.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
14.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+50
15.9%
Chris Naggar 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15TD
14 plays · 67 yds · 4:4018% → 31%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
18.2%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-4
17.9%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+5
17.1%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Gary Wiley) to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+30
17.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 30 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
19.8%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
19.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 7 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+3
19.0%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
19.1%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+11
18.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 11 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
18.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 6 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+3
18.4%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+4
17.8%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.8%
T.K. Wilkerson run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.0%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:0376% → 74%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
24.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
23.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-15
23.4%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Tyler Page) to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 20
OWN 26
+5
25.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 5 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 15
OWN 31
+1
26.3%
Chris Naggar punt for 54 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 1 yd to the Tulsa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 1:5324% → 54%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
24.1%
Zach Smith run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+7
24.5%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
24.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
23.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+12
22.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 12 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
25.0%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 19 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
54.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 35 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:0758% → 61%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
42.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
39.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
38.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 29 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
35.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 2 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
33.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tyler LavineSimilar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
35.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+7
38.9%
Shane Buechele run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:2944% → 38%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
43.7%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
43.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-5
42.0%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Tyler Smith) to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
40.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
37.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 75 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 47 yds · 4:0963% → 68%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
36.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 10 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
35.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 10 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
32.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 4 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
31.6%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+12
31.6%
Shane Buechele run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
29.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+10
28.8%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Allie Green IV) to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
27.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 11
OPP 33
0
26.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Judah BellSimilar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 11
OPP 33
0
28.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 11
OPP 33
0
32.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4141% → 39%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
41.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
44.7%
T.K. Wilkerson run for no gain to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
42.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+14
38.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 51 yds , Tyler Page returns for 14 yds to the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1870% → 70%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
28.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
27.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
30.4%
Chris Naggar punt for 36 yds, downed at the Tulsa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:4740% → 91%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
39.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
39.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 12 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+29
42.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 29 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
48.3%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 14 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
48.3%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
45.0%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to James Palmer for 4 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24INT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:2914% → 15%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
85.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
84.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25Uncategorized
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2893% → 96%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-15
93.0%
TULSA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dante Bivens) to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
94.1%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+15
95.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 15 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:11
Zach Smith pass complete to James Palmer for 4 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)
+45.5
TD · Q4 13:31
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 35 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)
+29.3
TD · Q3 2:51
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Zack Long KICK)
+12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com