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NAVY

Navy 37 at SMU 51

SMU
2020 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2020 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-1.3SMU 98.5%Tyger Goslin pass complete to MychalCooper for 14 yds for a TD (BijanNichols KICK)AWAY 37 - HOME 51 · Q4 2:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:39 · Tyger Goslin pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 14 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 174Pregame prior+1.7Home team on offense+29.1Score differential+10.1Garbage-time factor+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.2Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:25: Chance Warren run for 7 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +6.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:48: Ulysses Bentley IV run for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK) — SMU win probability +5.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:35: Tyler Lavine run for 10 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK) — SMU win probability +4.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:07: Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 5 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK) — SMU win probability +6.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:32: Shane Buechele pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 42 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK) — SMU win probability +6.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:48NAVY 4th & 17 at NAVY 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:18NAVY 4th & 14 at SMU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−3.3
    average punt
  4. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 16 at SMU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:32NAVY 4th & 15 at NAVY 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:17NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:17NAVY 4th & 18 at NAVY 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:51NAVY 4th & 6 at SMU 28, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:51SMU 4th & 10 at NAVY 49, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:45NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 31, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:39NAVY 4th & 8 at SMU 14, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:24SMU 4th & 7 at NAVY 32, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 5:19NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:52SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:25NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:48SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:35SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:07SMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:32SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:17SMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:44SMU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:37NAVY Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.3%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:17NAVY Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:39NAVY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
83.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
83.1%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
83.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
83.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-5
83.1%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
83.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the SMU 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+5
83.1%
Shane Buechele run for 5 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
83.1%
Chris Naggar punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
15 plays · 76 yds · 6:3818% → 23%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
82.3%
CJ Williams run for 7 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+9
82.2%
Nelson Smith run for 9 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
82.1%
Dalen Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-4
82.2%
Dalen Morris sacked by Richard McBryde for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+29
82.3%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Jamale Carothers for 29 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
82.0%
Myles Fells run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+14
82.1%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Devin Mathews for 14 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
82.0%
Jamale Carothers run for 7 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+3
82.0%
Myles Fells run for 3 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
82.0%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 13Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+4
82.0%
Chance Warren run for 4 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 5
OPP 9
-5
79.8%
NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 14Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+11
79.9%
Dalen Morris pass complete to CJ Williams for 11 yds to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.0%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 5:1978% → 80%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
77.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+5
77.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+6
77.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 6 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
77.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
78.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+11
78.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 11 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
78.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 6 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+10
78.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 10 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
79.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+24
79.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 24 yds to the Navy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
79.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the Navy 4Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
80.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2722% → 29%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
78.0%
Nelson Smith run for 28 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
76.9%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to Myles FellsSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
77.0%
Nelson Smith run for 14 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
76.6%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+26
76.6%
CJ Williams run for 26 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
70.6%
Chance Warren run for 7 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:3273% → 80%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
72.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+19
72.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Judah Bell for 19 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
73.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 2 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+16
73.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 16 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
74.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 20 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
79.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.9%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to CJ WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
75.9%
Dalen Morris run for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
76.5%
Dalen Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
77.0%
Daniel Davies punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:1078% → 84%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
78.4%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+36
78.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 36 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
79.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+7
79.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 7 yds to the Navy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
84.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 10 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 6:1718% → 20%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.2%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.3%
Myles Fells run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+21
82.6%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Chance Warren for 21 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
81.0%
Jamale Carothers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 46Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+4
81.7%
Dalen Morris run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 8
50
+15
81.5%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 15 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
80.1%
MORRIS, Dalen pass incomplete to WALKER, Mark (CROSSLEY, B.), PENALTY SMU holding (CROSSLEY, B.) 10 yards to the SMU25, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
79.9%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
79.9%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 3
OPP 18
-5
80.7%
NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-6
80.9%
Dalen Morris pass complete to CJ Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
80.2%
Bijan Nichols 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
14 plays · 71 yds · 1:0778% → 88%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
78.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 4 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+4
78.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 4 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+26
79.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 11 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Diego Fagot) to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
80.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 11 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
80.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 11 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
80.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 7 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+3
80.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 3 yds to the Navy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
80.4%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
80.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
87.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 5 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
87.6%
Nelson Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 18 Nelson Smith fumbled, forced by Terrance Newman, recovered by SMU Gary WileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11FG
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+35
91.8%
Chris Naggar 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
88.2%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 10 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
87.8%
CJ Williams run for 7 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+22
87.2%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Devin Mathews for 22 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-6
86.9%
Carlinos Acie run for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 42
0
87.7%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to CJ WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 42
0
88.1%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to Chance WarrenSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 16
OPP 42
0
88.5%
Daniel Davies punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:5489% → 97%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
89.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 17 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for no gain to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
89.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tyler PageSimilar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+13
89.0%
Shane Buechele run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
50
+8
89.9%
TaMerik Williams run for 8 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+42
96.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 42 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.8%
Dalen Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.8%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
95.8%
Chance Warren run for 15 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
95.5%
Chance Warren run for 9 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+5
95.2%
Myles Fells run for 5 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
95.4%
Dalen Morris sacked by Trevor Denbow for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 12
OPP 48
0
95.5%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to Devin MathewsSimilar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 12
OPP 48
-3
95.7%
Dalen Morris sacked by Richard McBryde for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 15
OWN 49
+2
95.8%
Daniel Davies punt for 39 yds , Tyler Page returns for 2 yds to the SMU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 2:0397% → 100%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
96.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 7 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+61
96.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 61 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
97.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the Navy 18Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-2
97.1%
Shane Buechele sacked by Tobe Okafor for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 20Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+20
99.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 20 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.6%
CJ Williams run for 8 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
99.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
99.5%
Chance Warren run for no gain to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
99.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 5 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to Devin MathewsSimilar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Dalen Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-8
99.5%
Dalen Morris sacked by Delano Robinson for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 18
OWN 31
0
99.6%
Daniel Davies punt for 47 yds, downed at the SMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
99.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+15
99.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 15 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+8
99.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 8 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
99.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 48 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
99.8%
CJ Williams run for 15 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Tyger Goslin run for no gain to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to Chance Warren, broken up by Brian HollowaySimilar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+62
99.9%
Tyger Goslin pass complete to Jamale Carothers for 62 yds for a TD NAVY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 8 GOSLIN, Tyger pass attempt failed, PENALTY SMU pass interference (PHILLIPS JR.,J) 6 yards to the SMU2, NO PLAY. (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q4 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
99.8%
GOSLIN, Tyger pass attempt failed, PENALTY SMU pass interference (PHILLIPS JR.,J) 6 yards to the SMU2, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
TaMerik Williams run for no gain to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
TaMerik Williams run for no gain to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.8%
Terrance Gipson run for 6 yds to the SMU 47 Terrance Gipson fumbled, forced by Tama Tuitele, recovered by Navy Marcus Wiggins , return for 1 yd to the SMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:340% → 1%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Chance Warren pass incomplete to Ryan Mitchell, broken up by Bryan MasseySimilar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+15
99.9%
COOPER, Mychal pass incomplete to WALKER, Mark (CROSSLEY, B.), PENALTY SMU pass interference (CROSSLEY, B.) 15 yards to the SMU32, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Chance Warren run for no gain to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
99.9%
Tyger Goslin pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 5 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 5
OPP 27
-1
99.9%
Carlinos Acie run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+9
99.9%
Mark Walker run for 9 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
98.8%
Chance Warren run for 19 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
99.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-5
99.1%
SMU Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 13
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+3
99.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 3 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
99.3%
Chris Naggar punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mark Walker at the Navy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 4:061% → 2%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
99.4%
Tyger Goslin pass complete to CJ Williams for 14 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
99.4%
Tyger Goslin run for 8 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 2
OWN 32
-2
99.4%
Nelson Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+1
99.4%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+4
99.4%
Tyger Goslin pass complete to Mark Walker for 4 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.4%
GOSLIN, Tyger pass intercepted by STEPHENS, B. at the SMU35, STEPHENS, B. return to the SMU35, PENALTY SMU pass interference (STEPHENS, B.) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
50
+24
99.4%
Tyger Goslin pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 24 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
99.2%
Myles Fells run for 10 yds to the SMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
99.2%
Chance Warren run for 2 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
99.2%
Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to Mark WalkerSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
99.3%
Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to Devin MathewsSimilar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+14
98.5%
Tyger Goslin pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 14 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:1598% → 99%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
98.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
98.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+1
98.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 0:24
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+8
98.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 8 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:32
Shane Buechele pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 42 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)
+6.8
TD · Q2 0:07
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 5 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q2 12:25
Chance Warren run for 7 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com