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CIN

Cincinnati 42 at SMU 13

SMU
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:23 · James Smith punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the SMU 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Home team on offense−34.0Score differential−18.2Garbage-time factor−9.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.1Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:23: Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK) — SMU win probability +9.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Chris Naggar 26 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +7.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 6:13: Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +12.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:22: Desmond Ridder run for 32 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +14.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 11:57: Chris Naggar 22 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +7.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:37SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:01SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:34SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:42CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:44SMU 4th & 1 at CIN 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−2.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:16SMU 4th & 7 at CIN 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:50CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:21CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:35SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−2.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:13CIN 4th & 1 at SMU 1, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−4.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−17.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:03SMU 4th & 13 at SMU 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−2.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:23CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 37, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:57SMU 4th & 2 at CIN 5, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.2%−0.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    -1.4%−8.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:29SMU 4th & 5 at CIN 12, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−6.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:19CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 11, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−1.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:55SMU 4th & 24 at CIN 25, down 15
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−2.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:34SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 43, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:05CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:20CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:23SMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:13CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:22CIN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:39CIN Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:03CIN Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:1551% → 51%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
50.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 7Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+3
50.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+16
50.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 16 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
51.1%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
51.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 3 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+1
51.0%
Shane Buechele run for 1 yd to the SMU 29 Shane Buechele fumbled, forced by Curtis Brooks, recovered by SMU Alan AliSimilar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
51.0%
Chris Naggar punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:2849% → 52%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
51.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
51.3%
Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+4
51.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
51.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 19 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
50.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 9 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+8
50.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 8 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
50.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
50.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 5 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+9
50.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 9 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
50.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
50.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the SMU 7Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
47.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 7 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3949% → 48%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
48.7%
Shane Buechele sacked by Jarell D - White and TEAM for a loss of 11 yards to the SMU 14Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+5
48.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+8
48.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 8 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+23
47.8%
Chris Naggar punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the CINCINNATI 35 SMU Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Bryan Massey) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:3853% → 59%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
50
+2
47.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 2 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+9
46.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 9 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 5
OPP 34
+19
46.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 19 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+27
47.0%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Gary Wiley) to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
41.3%
Desmond Ridder run for 15 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3143% → 42%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
43.0%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
42.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
42.1%
Chris Naggar punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Phil Thomas at the Cincy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4559% → 61%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
41.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-3
41.1%
Charles McClelland run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+16
41.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 16 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
39.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 9 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
39.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
39.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 1
OWN 48
-5
39.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Dylan O'Quinn) to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
39.3%
James Smith punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the SMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
19 plays · 83 yds · 6:5440% → 45%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
40.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+2
40.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
39.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 11 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
40.3%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
39.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+15
36.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ahmad D - Gardner) to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
38.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
37.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+6
37.3%
Shane Buechele run for 6 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+1
36.7%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
36.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+2
36.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 2 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+13
35.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 13 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
36.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+7
35.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 7 yds to the Cincy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
35.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q2 6:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
35.3%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the Cincy 9Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
44.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:3159% → 60%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
41.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 6 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
40.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the Cincy 43 Gerrid Doaks fumbled, forced by Junior Aho, recovered by SMU Nelson PaulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9MISSED FG
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:1445% → 42%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
44.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+15
42.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 15 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
45.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
45.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
44.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+46
42.4%
Chris Naggar 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2059% → 59%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
40.6%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
41.3%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 11
OWN 28
0
40.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Young Jr.Similar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
41.3%
James Smith punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the SMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11END OF HALF
10 plays · 63 yds · 2:4341% → 52%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
40.6%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Hayden Howerton) to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+1
39.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 1 yd to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 19
OWN 19
+15
39.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Ahmad Gardner) to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
40.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 7 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+14
42.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 14 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
43.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+25
44.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 10 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Roughing Passer (Myjai Sanders) to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
44.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 8 yds to the Cincy 12Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+3
44.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 3 yds to the Cincy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
52.2%
Chris Naggar 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1955% → 53%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
45.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+2
45.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
45.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+16
47.1%
James Smith punt for 47 yds , Tyler Page returns for 16 yds to the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3949% → 44%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
49.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 10
50
-3
49.5%
Shane Buechele run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyler Page) to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 13
OWN 40
-2
46.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+1
45.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 1 yd to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
44.0%
Chris Naggar punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 5:0256% → 74%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
44.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 19 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
41.9%
Charles McClelland run for 7 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-3
41.1%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+24
42.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 24 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
39.8%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+7
39.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 7 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+6
41.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 6 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
39.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the SMU 8Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
37.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 6 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
38.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 6:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0227% → 24%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
27.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
25.2%
Shane Buechele sacked by Ethan Tucky for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 5:03
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
24.3%
Chris Naggar punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:3376% → 92%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
24.5%
Jerome Ford run for 25 yds to the SMU 39 Jerome Ford fumbled, recovered by Cincy Jerome Ford for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
22.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for 12 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
21.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Leonard Taylor) to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+32
7.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 32 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17INT
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:1013% → 13%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
13.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
50
+4
14.5%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
13.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for no gain to the Cincy 46Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+2
12.6%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Ahmad Gardner return for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2292% → 93%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
7.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
6.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
6.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
6.8%
James Smith punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the SMU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19FG
12 plays · 82 yds · 3:1810% → 15%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
9.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+7
9.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 7 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+17
9.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 17 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
9.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Coby Bryant) to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
10.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
8.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+6
8.2%
Shane Buechele run for 6 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+24
8.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 24 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
8.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
8.1%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the Cincy 8Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+3
7.3%
Shane Buechele run for 3 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
15.1%
Chris Naggar 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20Uncategorized
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:4892% → 93%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
8.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 10 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
7.4%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Cincy 32 Jerome Ford fumbled, forced by Trevor Denbow, recovered by SMU Brandon StephensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:2916% → 11%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
15.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Arquon Bush) to the Cincy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
14.5%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
13.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Marcus Brown) to the Cincy 12Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
12.2%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
11.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 5
OPP 12
0
10.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:4193% → 94%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
6.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+2
6.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 6
OWN 16
-5
6.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (Desmond Ridder) to the Cincy 11Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 11
OWN 11
0
6.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 11
OWN 11
+2
6.5%
James Smith punt for 48 yds , Tyler Page returns for 2 yds to the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 38 yds · 3:058% → 6%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
7.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+1
7.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+10
7.5%
Shane Buechele run for 10 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
7.9%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
7.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 5 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+17
7.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 17 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
8.0%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 5
OPP 25
+10
7.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 10 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
7.9%
Shane Buechele sacked by Marcus Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (Marcus Brown) to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
7.9%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
7.8%
Tyler Page pass incomplete to Shane BuecheleSimilar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 20
OPP 21
-4
6.2%
Shane Buechele sacked by Myjai Sanders for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 24
OPP 25
+16
5.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 16 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24TD
1 play · 91 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+91
0.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 91 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:511% → 1%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
1.1%
Shane Buechele run for 8 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
1.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to TaMerik Williams for no gain to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
1.1%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
1.1%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 1:2299% → 100%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
0.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for 5 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+3
0.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+35
0.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 35 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27Uncategorized
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
0.1%
TaMerik Williams run for 2 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+2
0.1%
TaMerik Williams run for 2 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-1
0.1%
Terrance Gipson pass complete to Donald Clay for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:22
Desmond Ridder run for 32 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
-14.2
TD · Q3 6:13
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
-12.9
TD · Q2 6:23
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)
+9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com