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SMU

SMU 31 at Texas State 24

TXST
2020 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2020 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:50 · Brock Sturges run for 27 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Pregame prior−31.1Home team on offense−4.8Garbage-time factor−2.3Score differential−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:32: Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 3 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK) — TXST win probability +11.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:12: TJ McDaniel run for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK) — SMU win probability +7.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:14: Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 19 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK) — TXST win probability +16.2 pts (now 39%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:26: Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 51 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK) — SMU win probability +13.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:45: Alan Orona 47 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +6.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 10SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:00TXST 4th & 9 at SMU 32, tied
    Close callWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:22TXST 4th & 20 at SMU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:08SMU 4th & 19 at SMU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:43TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:03SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:57TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:13SMU 4th & 4 at TXST 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:50TXST 4th & 1 at SMU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.8%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:16TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:23TXST 4th & 7 at SMU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:52SMU 4th & 1 at TXST 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.0%−2.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−10.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:45TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:51TXST 4th & 2 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.5%−5.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:20SMU 4th & 5 at TXST 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−5.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:45TXST 4th & 19 at SMU 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−1.7
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 10:56SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:04TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:47SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:32TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:12SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:14TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:26SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1MISSED FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:337% → 9%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
7.3%
Brady McBride run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 18Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 11
OWN 18
-9
7.3%
Jaylen Gipson run for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 9 Jaylen Gipson fumbled, recovered by TexStSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 20
OWN 9
+35
7.6%
Brock Sturges run for 35 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+23
7.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 23 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
7.9%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
8.1%
Brady McBride run for no gain to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
8.3%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+26
8.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 26 yds to the SMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
8.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 8Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
8.8%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-12
8.8%
Brady McBride sacked by Elijah Chatman for a loss of 12 yards to the SMU 20Similar
Q1 10:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+37
8.9%
Alan Orona 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 17 yds · 5:0791% → 89%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
9.0%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
9.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 7 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+7
9.2%
TJ McDaniel run for 7 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
9.3%
Shane Buechele run for no gain to the SMU 36Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
9.5%
TJ McDaniel run for 8 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
9.6%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
9.8%
SMU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+3
10.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 3 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-4
10.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 11 yds to the TEXSTATE 45 SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 16
OWN 40
0
10.5%
TJ McDaniel run for no gain to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 16
OWN 40
-3
10.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to TJ McDaniel for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 19
OWN 37
0
11.4%
Chris Naggar punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1912% → 11%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
11.6%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jah'Marae ShereadSimilar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
11.5%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
11.4%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jah'Marae ShereadSimilar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
11.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 31 yds, downed at the SMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:2789% → 88%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
11.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 14 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
11.4%
TJ McDaniel run for 7 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 3
OWN 45
-4
11.3%
TJ McDaniel run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
11.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tyler Page SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
12.3%
Matt Fraanje punt for 41 yds, downed at the TexSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0312% → 13%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
12.2%
Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+5
12.6%
Brock Sturges run for 5 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
12.7%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jah'Marae ShereadSimilar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
12.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Danny Gray at the SMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:3088% → 86%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
12.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 8 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
12.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+7
12.4%
TJ McDaniel run for 7 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
12.8%
Shane Buechele sacked by Brayden Stringer and Nico Ezidore for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+7
13.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 7 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+6
13.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
13.9%
Matt Fraanje punt for 35 yds, fair catch by DeJordan Mask at the TexSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7INT
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:1315% → 16%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
14.9%
Calvin Hill run for 13 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
15.3%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+7
16.1%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-17
16.4%
Brady McBride pass intercepted Jimmy Phillips Jr. return for 2 yds to the TexSt 40 SMU Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:4986% → 89%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
14.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+19
14.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 19 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
14.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 2 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+29
14.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 29 yds to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
11.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:4112% → 22%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.3%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
12.6%
Brady McBride run for 4 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
12.7%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
13.0%
Brady McBride run for 7 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
13.6%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
50
-1
13.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+8
13.5%
Brock Sturges run for 8 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+12
13.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 12 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+23
14.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 23 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
14.9%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Holding (3 Yards) to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
15.0%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the SMU 4Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
15.2%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q2 6:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.7%
Brock Sturges run for 4 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:1382% → 87%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
17.7%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+13
17.9%
TJ McDaniel run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
17.2%
TJ McDaniel run for 5 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
17.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+24
17.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 24 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
16.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+12
12.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 12 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1314% → 28%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.0%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Brock SturgesSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
14.0%
Calvin Hill run for 19 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
15.3%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
15.3%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jah'Marae ShereadSimilar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+7
14.5%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+27
15.4%
Brock Sturges run for 27 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
17.4%
Brady McBride run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 21Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+3
17.5%
Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+15
16.8%
McBride, Brady pass incomplete to Sheread, Jah'Marae, PENALTY SMU pass interference 15 yards to the SMU3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXSTATE.Similar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
28.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 3 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
21.7%
Shane Buechele run for 7 yds to the SMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4378% → 87%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+38
22.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 38 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
20.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+10
20.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 10 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
20.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
20.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+10
21.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 10 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
21.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 9Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
13.5%
TJ McDaniel run for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4416% → 17%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
16.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 10 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
17.4%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jeremiah Haydel, broken up by Roderick Roberson Jr.Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
17.3%
Brady McBride run for 6 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
18.1%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
17.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 49 yds, downed at the SMU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15INT
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:5784% → 86%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+21
16.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 21 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
15.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Ulysses Bentley IVSimilar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
16.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+21
16.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 6 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Targeting (Brayden Stringer) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
50
+19
14.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 19 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
14.5%
TJ McDaniel run for no gain to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-30
14.3%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Kordell Rodgers return for 30 yds to the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:4621% → 39%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
20.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 2 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+6
20.8%
Brady McBride run for 6 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+5
20.9%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
22.4%
Calvin Hill run for 13 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
38.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 19 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:2469% → 85%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
30.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+9
31.2%
TJ McDaniel run for 9 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
30.8%
TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+17
31.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 17 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
28.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+51
15.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 51 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:5719% → 19%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.3%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
19.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 2 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+21
18.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 21 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
22.6%
Sturges, Brock rush for 18 yards to the SMU33, PENALTY TEXSTATE holding 10 yards to the TEXSTATE39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+4
20.5%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 16
OWN 43
0
20.6%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 16
OWN 43
+9
19.8%
Calvin Hill run for 9 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
18.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19FUMBLE
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:5182% → 86%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
17.8%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+17
17.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 17 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+39
14.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 39 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
13.7%
TJ McDaniel run for 5 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+14
13.7%
TJ McDaniel run for 11 yds to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Face Mask (3 yards) (3 Yards) to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
13.8%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
13.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
14.5%
TJ McDaniel run for 5 yds TJ McDaniel fumbled, recovered by TexStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 24 yds · 0:2020% → 19%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
19.5%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 19 Brock Sturges fumbled, recovered by TexStSimilar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+25
19.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 25 yds Trevis Graham Jr. fumbled, recovered by SMUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:4385% → 85%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
14.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to TJ McDaniel for 9 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
14.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to TJ McDaniel for no gain to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+5
14.5%
TJ McDaniel run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
13.0%
TJ McDaniel run for 4 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
12.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 5 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
12.8%
TaMerik Williams run for no gain to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 1
OPP 21
0
15.0%
Kylen Granson run for no gain to the TexSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0520% → 17%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
19.6%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+10
19.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Brock Sturges for 10 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
20.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+5
19.6%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
20.5%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
18.0%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+30
17.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds , Tyler Page returns for 30 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:2688% → 89%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
12.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+5
11.3%
TJ McDaniel run for 5 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
11.2%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
10.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tyler PageSimilar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 8
OPP 34
-15
10.6%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Grid Isidore Jr. return for 15 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0421% → 20%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
20.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Brock Sturges for 5 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
22.5%
Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 2
50
0
22.5%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 2
50
0
20.2%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25FG
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:1590% → 94%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+30
9.7%
TJ McDaniel run for 15 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jarron Morris) to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
8.6%
TJ McDaniel run for 4 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+1
8.0%
TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
7.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q4 2:20
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
5.8%
Chris Naggar 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26FG
14 plays · 45 yds · 1:306% → 10%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
5.5%
Brock Sturges run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
5.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 11 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
5.5%
Brady McBride run for 7 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+17
5.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 17 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
5.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 15 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
7.2%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
7.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 4 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 6
OPP 17
-13
5.9%
Brady McBride sacked by Turner Coxe for a loss of 13 yards to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 19
OPP 30
+47
10.3%
Alan Orona 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27Uncategorized
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
2.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:14
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 19 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)
+16.2
TD · Q3 3:26
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 51 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q2 0:32
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 3 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)
+11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com