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UCF

UCF 58 at South Florida 46

USF
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:29 · Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 12 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 195Pregame prior−8.9Home team on offense−22.8Score differential−4.3Garbage-time factor−8.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:57: Jordan McCloud 3 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick) — USF win probability +6.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:19: DeVontres Dukes 14 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Spencer Shrader Kick) — USF win probability +7.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:13: Dillon Gabriel 12 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick) — UCF win probability +6.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:10: Brian Battie 1 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick) — USF win probability +13.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:34: Greg McCrae 20 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick) — UCF win probability +7.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:35USF 4th & 7 at UCF 25, tied
    Close callWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:31UCF 4th & 15 at USF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    91.1%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:56USF 4th & 5 at USF 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:32USF 4th & 6 at UCF 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:31USF 4th & 17 at USF 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:31UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:14UCF 4th & 2 at USF 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%−0.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:09UCF 4th & 6 at USF 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:00USF 4th & 23 at USF 8, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−1.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:21USF 4th & 6 at UCF 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:10UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−2.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:29UCF 4th & 7 at USF 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−0.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:31USF 4th & 1 at USF 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 7:37USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:07UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:25UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:09UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:14UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:29USF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:57USF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:32UCF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:19USF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:13UCF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:10USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.8%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:34UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.7
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 1:40UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 0:14USF Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:175% → 6%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
5.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
5.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
5.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 12 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
5.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 13 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
5.8%
Darrian Felix run for 2 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
6.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Mitchell BrinkmanSimilar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+11
6.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 11 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
6.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Darrian FelixSimilar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
6.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Darrian Felix for 3 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
6.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Latrell WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 7
OPP 25
0
6.4%
Kenny Scribner pass incomplete to Frederick LloydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:5994% → 93%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
6.3%
Greg McCrae run for 15 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
6.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 5 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+5
6.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
50
+9
6.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 9 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+4
6.5%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
6.6%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Rashawn Yates for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 42Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 15
OPP 42
0
6.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 15
OPP 42
0
6.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Greg McCraeSimilar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
7.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:477% → 9%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
7.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 11 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
7.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 10 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
7.3%
Kelley Joiner run for 6 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+15
7.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 15 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
7.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 20 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
7.9%
Jordan McCloud sacked by TEAM for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 23 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jordan McCloud) to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 15
OPP 23
0
7.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 15
OPP 23
+23
8.6%
DeVontres Dukes 23 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2791% → 92%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
8.6%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+28
9.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 28 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
8.8%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+12
9.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 12 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
9.2%
Bentavious Thompson run for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+3
9.2%
Bentavious Thompson run for 3 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+27
8.3%
Bentavious Thompson 27 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:069% → 9%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
8.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
8.9%
Brian Battie run for no gain to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
9.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
9.0%
Trent Schneider punt for 53 yds , Amari Johnson returns for 5 yds to the UCF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 3:2091% → 92%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+42
9.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 42 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
8.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
8.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 5 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+10
9.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 10 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
9.0%
Bentavious Thompson run for 5 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+4
9.1%
Bentavious Thompson run for 4 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+5
9.4%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the SFla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-7
9.3%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the SFla 4 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SFla 14Similar
Q1 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
9.4%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
9.6%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 17Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+15
9.8%
Gabriel, Dillon pass incomplete to Nixon, Tre, PENALTY SOUFLA pass interference 15 yards to the SOUFLA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q1 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
9.7%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the SFla 1Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.2%
Jake Hescock 1 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Daniel Obarski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 1:439% → 9%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
8.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 16 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
9.3%
Kelley Joiner run for 11 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
9.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Latrell Williams for 15 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
10.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
10.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Latrell WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+4
9.6%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
9.4%
Spencer Shrader 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8TD
2 plays · 71 yds · 0:1591% → 93%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+51
8.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 51 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
6.7%
Jacob Harris 20 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Daniel Obarski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:317% → 7%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to DeVontres DukesSimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
7.2%
McCloud, Jordan pass incomplete to Weaver, Xavier, PENALTY UCF pass interference 15 yards to the SOUFLA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
7.5%
Darrian Felix run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 15
OWN 35
-5
7.3%
McCloud, Jordan pass complete to Weaver, Xavier for 17 yards to the UCF48, PENALTY SOUFLA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SOUFLA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+12
7.1%
Jordan McCloud run for 12 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-9
7.4%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Landon Woodson for a loss of 9 yards to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 17
OWN 33
+19
7.2%
Trent Schneider punt for 45 yds , Amari Johnson returns for 19 yds to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5593% → 93%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
6.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 3 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
6.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-5
7.0%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Andrew Mims for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
7.3%
Andrew Osteen punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the SFla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:397% → 8%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
7.3%
McCloud, Jordan pass incomplete to Miller, Bryce, PENALTY UCF roughing passer 15 yards to the SOUFLA32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
7.4%
Brian Battie run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+5
7.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Brian Battie for 5 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+8
7.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to DeVontres Dukes for 8 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
7.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 7 yds to the SFla 49 Kelley Joiner fumbled, recovered by UCF Aaron RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12TD
8 plays · 49 yds · 1:2893% → 95%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
7.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 7 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-1
7.0%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
7.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+10
7.5%
Gabriel, Dillon pass incomplete to Robinson, Jaylon, PENALTY SOUFLA holding 10 yards to the SOUFLA33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
7.1%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
7.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+2
7.1%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+25
4.6%
Jacob Harris 25 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Daniel Obarski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:405% → 9%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.3%
Brian Battie run for no gain to the SFla 25Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
5.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
5.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 4 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
5.5%
Darrian Felix run for 10 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
5.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Omarion DollisonSimilar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+19
5.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 19 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
6.1%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Landon Woodson for a loss of 10 yards to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+30
5.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 30 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
6.1%
Darrian Felix run for 10 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
6.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q2 2:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
9.0%
Bryce Miller 5 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 2:1392% → 94%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
8.0%
Bentavious Thompson run for 19 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
7.6%
Bentavious Thompson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 4
50
+1
7.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 1 yd to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+26
7.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 26 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
7.0%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+8
7.0%
Greg McCrae run for 8 yds to the SFla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
7.0%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the SFla 8Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
7.0%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the SFla 6Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
6.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
5.8%
Daniel Obarski 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 30 yds · 0:017% → 7%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
7.0%
Brian Battie run for 11 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
7.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Darrian Felix for 19 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:0094% → 93%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
6.5%
Greg McCrae run for 22 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-13
6.1%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 49 UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 23
OWN 34
+8
6.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 8 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
6.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 15
OWN 42
0
6.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the SFla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:417% → 7%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
7.0%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Tre'mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 15Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 16
OWN 15
+1
6.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 1 yd to the SFla 16Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 15
OWN 16
-8
6.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Darrian Felix for a loss of 8 yards to the SFla 8Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 23
OWN 8
0
6.9%
Trent Schneider punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Amari Johnson at the SFla 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:3394% → 94%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
5.9%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
5.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Greg McCraeSimilar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
6.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:157% → 15%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
7.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (-10 Yards) to the SFla 10Similar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
7.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 7 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+11
7.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 11 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
7.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+30
7.0%
Brian Battie run for 30 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
7.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 19 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-6
8.1%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Landon Woodson for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 16
OPP 26
+23
7.8%
Brian Battie run for 23 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
8.5%
Brian Battie run for no gain to the UCF 3Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
14.8%
Jordan McCloud 3 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:1187% → 94%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
12.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 7 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
11.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 4 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
12.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 11 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
5.7%
Jacob Harris 47 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Daniel Obarski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 3:527% → 16%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
6.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 3 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
6.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+22
6.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 22 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
7.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
7.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Latrell Williams for 5 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+8
7.7%
Jordan McCloud run for 8 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
8.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to DeVontres Dukes for 8 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+4
8.1%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
8.3%
Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+15
8.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 15 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
15.6%
DeVontres Dukes 14 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 0:5889% → 96%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
11.5%
Greg McCrae run for 16 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
11.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 8 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+9
11.1%
Greg McCrae run for 9 yds to the SFla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
4.3%
Dillon Gabriel 12 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:467% → 9%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
6.9%
Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
6.3%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q3 0:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
6.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to DeVontres Dukes for 13 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
7.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+16
6.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 16 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
7.3%
Kelley Joiner run for 23 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
6.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the UCF 16Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+3
6.3%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the UCF 13Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
6.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Omarion DollisonSimilar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
9.2%
Jared Sackett 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0994% → 94%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
5.8%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
5.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
5.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted Dwayne Boyles return for no gain to the UCF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 0:4810% → 23%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+22
9.7%
Brian Battie run for 22 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+25
9.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Latrell Williams for 25 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.6%
Brian Battie 1 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5586% → 84%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
14.9%
Gabriel, Dillon pass complete to Nixon, Tre for 12 yards to the UCF37, PENALTY UCF ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the UCF20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
14.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Bentavious Thompson for 6 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
14.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
15.7%
Andrew Osteen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the SFla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
18.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the SFla 40 Kelley Joiner fumbled, forced by Divaad Wilson, recovered by UCF Keenan HesterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:2189% → 97%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
11.5%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
11.5%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 3
OPP 33
-4
11.4%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 7:29
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+12
13.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 12 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
10.6%
McCrae, Greg rush for 3 yards to the SOUFLA22, PENALTY SOUFLA substitution infraction 5 yards to the SOUFLA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 5
OPP 20
+20
3.5%
Greg McCrae 20 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:574% → 4%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
3.9%
Brian Battie run for 9 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
4.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Latrell WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
4.2%
Brian Battie run for no gain to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
4.0%
Brian Battie run for no gain to the SFla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 30TD
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:3997% → 100%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
3.4%
Bentavious Thompson run for 6 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+5
3.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
2.6%
Bentavious Thompson run for 1 yd to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+6
2.3%
Bentavious Thompson run for 6 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+6
2.3%
Bentavious Thompson run for 6 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
2.2%
Bentavious Thompson run for 8 yds to the SFla 2Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.5%
Bentavious Thompson 2 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 31TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:131% → 5%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
0.6%
Jordan McCloud run for 7 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+22
0.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 22 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
0.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 12 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
5.4%
Bryce Miller 19 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Jordan McCloud Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
2.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:10
Brian Battie 1 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)
+13.3
TD · Q3 2:19
DeVontres Dukes 14 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Spencer Shrader Kick)
+7.1
TD · Q4 6:34
Greg McCrae 20 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick)
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com