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USF

South Florida 21 at Houston 56

HOU
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:51 · Trent Schneider punt for 43 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 72 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Home team on offense+28.7Pregame prior+18.1Score differential+21.8Blowout margin+11.3Garbage-time factor+6.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:05: Clayton Tune run for 26 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +2.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:06: Clayton Tune run for 13 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +5.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:16: Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 33 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +3.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:22: Clayton Tune pass intercepted for a TD Bentlee Sanders return for no gain for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +0.8 pts (now 1%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:35: Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:09USF 4th & 9 at HOU 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:57HOU 4th & 3 at USF 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    83.2%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:15USF 4th & 6 at USF 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:05USF 4th & 6 at USF 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:20USF 4th & 12 at USF 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:06USF 4th & 8 at HOU 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:16USF 4th & 15 at USF 20, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−1.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:10HOU 4th & 15 at USF 30, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:10USF 4th & 7 at USF 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:32HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 40, up 28
    Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:51USF 4th & 6 at USF 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:51USF 4th & 6 at USF 45, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:35HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 35, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:37HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 37, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:15USF 4th & 10 at HOU 33, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:04HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:05HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:06HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:16HOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:37USF Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:50USF Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:22USF Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:35HOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:15HOU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5684% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
84.4%
Mulbah Car run for 26 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
84.4%
Clayton Tune run for 21 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
84.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 28 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 1:5516% → 16%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
84.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 13 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+21
84.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 21 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
84.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
84.3%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
84.3%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
84.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete, broken up by David AnenihSimilar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
84.2%
Trent Schneider punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
84.3%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
84.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 8 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
84.3%
CAR, Mulbah rush up middle for 1 yard to the HOU34 (BELLAMY, D), PENALTY USF substitution infraction 6 yards to the HOU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 4
OWN 39
+6
84.4%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
84.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+6
84.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 6 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+1
84.4%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Houst 47Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+16
84.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 16 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
84.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 1 yd to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+7
84.4%
Mulbah Car run for 7 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 2
OPP 29
-1
84.4%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 3
OPP 30
0
84.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
83.8%
Jordan McCloud run for 8 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+5
83.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 5 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
83.6%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
83.4%
Jordan McCloud run for no gain to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
83.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
83.9%
Trent Schneider punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 3:0584% → 87%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
83.9%
Clayton Tune run for 17 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+26
84.1%
Chandler Smith run for 26 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
84.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 14 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
84.5%
Chandler Smith run for 2 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-5
84.5%
Bryson Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 26Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+26
87.1%
Clayton Tune run for 26 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
86.2%
Jordan McCloud run for 12 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+13
86.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 23 , Marcus Jones returns for 13 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
86.1%
Jordan McCloud run for 2 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
86.1%
Jordan McCloud run for 2 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
86.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:1687% → 87%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
87.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+15
87.2%
TUNE, Clayton middle pass incomplete to DELL, Nathaniel, PENALTY USF pass interference (SAILS, KJ) 15 yards to the HOU38, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
87.5%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+2
87.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Mulbah Car for 2 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
87.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
87.0%
Laine Wilkins punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-7
86.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 20Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+3
86.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+27
86.7%
Trent Schneider punt for 60 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 27 yds to the Houst 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:1988% → 93%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
88.2%
Bryson Smith pass complete to Clayton Tune for 21 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
88.2%
Mulbah Car run for 10 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
88.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
88.2%
Chandler Smith run for 8 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+4
88.1%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
93.3%
Clayton Tune run for 13 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 9 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
92.2%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
92.4%
Brian Battie run for 25 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
92.1%
Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
92.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Omarion DollisonSimilar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
92.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 8
OPP 38
-9
92.4%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Jordan Moore for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 1:0594% → 97%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
94.4%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+18
94.3%
Clayton Tune run for 18 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
97.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 33 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.7%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Derek Parish and David Anenih for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 20Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
97.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Brian BattieSimilar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
97.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+33
97.9%
Trent Schneider punt for 50 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 33 yds to the SFla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13MISSED FG
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1398% → 98%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
97.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 12 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
97.6%
Chandler Smith run for no gain to the SFla 25Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
97.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-5
97.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (Max Banes) to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 15
OPP 30
0
97.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 15
OPP 30
+47
97.8%
Kyle Ramsey 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
98.0%
Jordan McCloud run for 8 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+2
97.8%
Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
97.9%
Brian Battie run for 7 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-4
97.8%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Derek Parish for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
98.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
98.0%
Trent Schneider punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Damarion Williams at the Houst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:3398% → 99%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
98.2%
Chandler Smith run for 3 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
98.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+9
98.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 9 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
98.2%
Kelan Walker run for 9 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 1
OWN 40
0
98.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Shane CreamerSimilar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
98.1%
Kelan Walker run for no gain to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 1
OWN 40
-4
98.6%
Laine Wilkins punt for 41 yds , KJ Sails returns for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
98.6%
Brian Battie run for 6 yds to the SFla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:092% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.2%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Bryce Miller for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
98.0%
Brian Battie run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
98.0%
Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to Mitchell Brinkman, broken up by Deontay AndersonSimilar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+72
99.0%
Trent Schneider punt for 43 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 72 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.0%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 16 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
99.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
99.0%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
99.0%
Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to DeVontres Dukes, broken up by Damarion WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
99.0%
Trent Schneider punt for 39 yds , Damarion Williams returns for no gain to the Houst 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
99.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 3 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+9
99.2%
Kelan Walker run for 9 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.2%
Kelan Walker run for 2 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+5
99.2%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
99.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Cole McGowanSimilar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+59
99.2%
Laine Wilkins punt for 44 yds, downed at the HOUSTON 21 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, kick catching interference (15 Yards) to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20FUMBLE TD
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:591% → 0%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.3%
Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+31
99.4%
Brian Battie run for 31 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.3%
Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to DeVontres Dukes, broken up by Shaun LewisSimilar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
99.3%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 11 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.2%
Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
99.3%
Katravis Marsh run for no gain to the Houst 20Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+11
99.3%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Brian Battie for 11 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.3%
Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the Houst 7Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.3%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+85
99.7%
Katravis Marsh sacked by David Anenih for a loss of 10 yards Katravis Marsh fumbled, recovered by Houst Derek Parish , return for 0 yards , return for 85 yds (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:300% → 0%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
99.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Latrell Williams for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.6%
Leonard Parker run for 3 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
99.7%
Jordan McCloud run for 2 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+17
99.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to DeVontres Dukes for 17 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+26
99.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 26 yds to the Houst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.6%
Leonard Parker run for 2 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.7%
Chandler Smith run for 10 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Christian Trahan, broken up by Kelvin PinkneySimilar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.7%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-15
99.7%
TUNE, Clayton sideline left pass complete to SMITH, Chandler for 11 yards to the USF49 (BOYLES, Dwayne), PENALTY HOU pass interference (CORBIN, Keith) 15 yards to the HOU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+12
99.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 12 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Laine Wilkins punt for 46 yds, fair catch by KJ Sails at the SFla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 4:250% → 0%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
99.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Terrence Horne for 10 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
99.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Carter for 12 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Terrence Horne for 2 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+4
99.8%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+16
99.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Brian Battie for 16 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
99.8%
Jordan McCloud run for 18 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
99.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Sean Atkins for 12 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
99.8%
Jordan McCloud run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
99.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
99.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Latrell WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
99.9%
McCLOUD, Jordan sideline right pass incomplete to BROWN, Sincere (SMALL, D.J.), PENALTY HOU pass interference (SMALL, D.J.) 10 yards to the HOU2, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 2 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24INT TD
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:28100% → 99%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Kelan Walker run for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Kelan Walker run for 5 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
99.1%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted for a TD Bentlee Sanders return for no gain for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4799% → 100%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.0%
WALKER, Kelan rush up middle for 2 yards to the HOU27 (PINKNEY, Kelvin;NORRIS, Brian), PENALTY HOU illegal formation 5 yards to the HOU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
99.0%
Kelan Walker run for 2 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
99.0%
Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
99.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Houst 23Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
99.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 15 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+30
99.1%
Kelan Walker run for 30 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
99.2%
Chandler Smith run for 2 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+24
99.2%
Chandler Smith run for 24 yds to the SFla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 27TD
1 play · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
100.0%
James Fullbright III run for 14 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28DOWNS
13 plays · 42 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
Leonard Parker run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
100.0%
Leonard Parker run for 1 yd to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
99.9%
Leonard Parker run for 4 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
100.0%
Leonard Parker run for 1 yd to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
100.0%
Leonard Parker run for 5 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+10
100.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Sean Atkins for 10 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-6
100.0%
Odunayo Seriki run for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 47Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 16
OWN 47
+20
100.0%
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds to the HOUSTON 48 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, unnecessary roughness (Derek Parish) to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Sincere BrownSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
100.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to DeVontres DukesSimilar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Omarion Dollison, broken up by D.J. SmallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 29Uncategorized
1 play · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
100.0%
James Fullbright III run for 5 yds to the Houst 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:06
Clayton Tune run for 13 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q2 7:16
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 33 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
+3
TD · Q1 2:05
Clayton Tune run for 26 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
+2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com