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TLSA

Tulsa 42 at South Florida 13

USF
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:14 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Home team on offense−56.5Pregame prior−0.7Score differential−42.3Garbage-time factor−21.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−13.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:23: Corey Taylor II 5 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick) — TLSA win probability +4.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:54: Deneric Prince 27 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick) — TLSA win probability +4.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:43: Bryce Miller 4 Yd pass from Noah Johnson (Jared Sackett Kick) — USF win probability +8.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:26: Deneric Prince 62 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick) — TLSA win probability +9.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:56: Zaven Collins 38 Yd Interception Return (Zack Long Kick) — TLSA win probability +8.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 10 of 11TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 13:15USF 4th & 8 at USF 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:59USF 4th & 8 at TLSA 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:15TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 19, up 4
    Close callPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:57USF 4th & 8 at TLSA 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:49TLSA 4th & 3 at USF 41, up 1
    Close callPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    71.9%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:57USF 4th & 4 at USF 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:37USF 4th & 7 at USF 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:40TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 29, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:08USF 4th & 2 at TLSA 42, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    15.1%−2.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:43USF 4th & 4 at TLSA 4, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    15.8%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−6.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:33USF 4th & 3 at USF 18, down 22
    Close callPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:50USF 4th & 5 at TLSA 38, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:20USF 4th & 5 at TLSA 5, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:18TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 29, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:40USF 4th & 10 at TLSA 25, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:14TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 44, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:10TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:23TLSA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:54TLSA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:43USF Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:26TLSA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:56TLSA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:21TLSA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0720% → 20%
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
19.9%
Johnny Ford run for 2 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+5
20.0%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-5
20.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 24Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
20.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to DeVontres Odoms-DukesSimilar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+1
20.4%
Trent Schneider punt for 42 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 1 yd to the Tulsa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:5080% → 80%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
20.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
20.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
20.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 21 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
20.1%
JuanCarlos Santana 33 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Zack Long Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:1621% → 21%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
20.5%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
20.6%
Johnny Ford run for no gain to the SFla 45 Johnny Ford fumbled, forced by Akayleb Evans, recovered by Tulsa Lamar Mullins , return for no gain to the SFla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-16
20.2%
Zach Smith pass intercepted for a 1ST down Daquan Evans return for 31 yds to the Tulsa 14 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:0121% → 22%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
20.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Latrell WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
20.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
21.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Latrell WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
21.2%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
21.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
21.7%
Jared Sackett 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0578% → 78%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
21.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+2
21.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 3
OWN 19
0
22.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 3
OWN 19
+60
22.5%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 50 yds , KJ Sails returns for 60 yds to the Tulsa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1823% → 23%
Q1 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
23.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
23.0%
Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+5
23.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 5 yds to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
23.2%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
23.4%
Jared Sackett 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:4176% → 75%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
23.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+2
23.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+27
24.1%
Corey Taylor II run for 27 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
23.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 9 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 1
OPP 39
0
23.6%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-2
23.9%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
24.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2625% → 25%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
24.6%
Johnny Ford run for no gain to the SFla 15Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
24.9%
Johnny Ford run for 3 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+3
24.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Brian Battie for 3 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
24.9%
Trent Schneider punt for 52 yds, downed at the Tulsa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:1575% → 79%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
25.3%
JuanCarlos Santana run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
24.9%
Deneric Prince run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+5
25.0%
Deneric Prince run for 5 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
25.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 14 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
24.6%
Keylon Stokes run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+3
24.5%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+7
25.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 7 yds to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
24.8%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+16
25.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 16 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
25.4%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the SFla 5Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
20.8%
Corey Taylor II 5 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4622% → 22%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
22.1%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Bryce Miller for 9 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+5
23.1%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
22.8%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+8
22.6%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Bryce Miller for 8 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+1
23.4%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 1 yd to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 2
OWN 46
-5
22.8%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+13
22.0%
Trent Schneider punt for 52 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 13 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 4:1678% → 85%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
22.4%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+15
22.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 15 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
22.0%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
21.4%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+15
21.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 15 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
20.5%
Smith, Zach pass complete to Crawford Jr., Sam for 5 yards to the SOUFLA47, PENALTY TULSA illegal touching (Crawford Jr., Sam) 0 yards to the TULSA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
20.5%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+5
20.5%
Smith, Zach pass incomplete to Crawford Jr., Sam, PENALTY SOUFLA offside 5 yards to the SOUFLA43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+5
20.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
20.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
20.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+10
20.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 10 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
19.0%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
14.9%
Deneric Prince 27 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13FUMBLE
13 plays · 71 yds · 3:4317% → 17%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
16.5%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Latrell Williams for 8 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 2
OWN 31
-2
17.0%
Noah Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+14
16.4%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 14 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
17.5%
Noah Johnson run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
17.5%
Noah Johnson pass complete to DeVontres Odoms-Dukes for 13 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
17.8%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Johnny Ford for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
17.6%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Latrell WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+15
16.8%
Johnson, Noah pass complete to Ford, Johnny for loss of 5 yards to the TULSA37, PENALTY TULSA personal foul 15 yards to the TULSA17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
17.7%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 10 yds to the Tulsa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
17.7%
Noah Johnson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
17.7%
Noah Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
17.1%
Noah Johnson run for no gain to the Tulsa 6 Noah Johnson fumbled, forced by Zaven Collins, recovered by Tulsa Grant Sawyer , return for no gain to the Tulsa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:1887% → 86%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+22
13.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 22 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
13.6%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0486% → 86%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
14.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
14.1%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
13.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+4
14.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 47 yds , KJ Sails returns for 4 yds to the SFla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:3215% → 24%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
15.4%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
50
+3
16.5%
Cade Fortin run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+6
16.5%
Johnny Ford run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-1
16.0%
Leonard Parker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+3
15.4%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 3 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+33
15.8%
Cade Fortin run for 33 yds to the Tulsa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
16.4%
Leonard Parker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
16.2%
Cade Fortin run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+7
15.2%
Cade Fortin run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q3 8:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
23.8%
Bryce Miller 4 Yd pass from Noah Johnson (Jared Sackett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5479% → 90%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
20.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
20.0%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
10.4%
Deneric Prince 62 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18INT TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1413% → 5%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
13.3%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-5
13.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Latrell Williams) to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+5
12.8%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 5 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-38
4.7%
Zaven Collins 38 Yd Interception Return (Zack Long Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:574% → 4%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
4.2%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+2
4.0%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 2 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 3
OWN 18
0
4.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
4.0%
Trent Schneider punt for 38 yds, downed at the Tulsa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:0797% → 99%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
2.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+35
2.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 35 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
2.5%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 22Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 11
OPP 22
0
2.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+5
2.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SFla 17Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+15
2.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Stewart for 15 yds to the SFla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
2.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the SFla 1Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.5%
Corey Taylor II 1 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21DOWNS
14 plays · 60 yds · 5:402% → 0%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
1.5%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 10 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
1.5%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 5
50
+7
1.4%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 7 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
1.5%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Omarion DollisonSimilar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
1.4%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Chris Carter for 4 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 14:35
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+1
1.0%
Noah Johnson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+18
0.7%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Bryce Miller for 18 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
0.7%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+12
0.6%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 12 yds to the Tulsa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
0.6%
Leonard Parker run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
0.6%
Noah Johnson sacked by Grant Sawyer for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.5%
Leonard Parker run for no gain to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.4%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
0.5%
Christian Lovick run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+6
0.4%
Christian Lovick run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
0.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Stewart for 5 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
0.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
0.3%
Christian Lovick run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
0.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by KJ Sails at the SFla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
0.2%
Noah Johnson run for 12 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
0.2%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 7 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
0.2%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Omarion DollisonSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+5
0.2%
Noah Johnson run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
0.2%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 21 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
0.2%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Frederick Lloyd Jr.Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
0.2%
Noah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
0.2%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Omarion DollisonSimilar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
0.2%
Jared Sackett 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 4:01100% → 100%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
0.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
0.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
0.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
0.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Cannon Montgomery for 2 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-1
0.1%
Malik Rodgers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
0.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:490% → 0%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
0.1%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Omarion Dollison for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 19Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+3
0.1%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the SFla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:26
Deneric Prince 62 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick)
-9.5
TD · Q3 8:43
Bryce Miller 4 Yd pass from Noah Johnson (Jared Sackett Kick)
+8.6
TD · Q3 5:56
Zaven Collins 38 Yd Interception Return (Zack Long Kick)
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com