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ECU

East Carolina 44 at South Florida 24

USF
2020 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:40 · 25-K.Scribner punts 47 yards from USF 38. 22-T.Snead to ECU 23 for 8 yards (29-B.Norris).
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Home team on offense−14.2Score differential−7.4Pregame prior+4.7Garbage-time factor−4.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:27: 12-H.Ahlers complete to 5-C.Johnson. 5-C.Johnson runs 75 yards for a touchdown. — ECU win probability +4.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:26: 47-R.Harris runs 42 yards for a touchdown. — ECU win probability +10.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:08: 1-J.Ford runs 7 yards for a touchdown. — USF win probability +9.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:22: 47-R.Harris runs 10 yards for a touchdown. — ECU win probability +17.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:17: 12-H.Ahlers complete to 5-C.Johnson. 5-C.Johnson runs 14 yards for a touchdown. — ECU win probability +10.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:40ECU 4th & 6 at USF 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:55ECU 4th & 2 at USF 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    33.9%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−2.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:40USF 4th & 17 at USF 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:17USF 4th & 5 at ECU 8, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−4.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:07ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 45, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:44ECU 4th & 5 at USF 29, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.0%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:36USF 4th & 9 at ECU 14, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:40USF 4th & 12 at USF 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:24ECU 4th & 23 at ECU 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−4.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:45USF 4th & 7 at USF 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:11USF 4th & 5 at ECU 30, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    4.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:23ECU 4th & 1 at USF 36, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:30ECU 4th & 11 at USF 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:05USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:55ECU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:27ECU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:26ECU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:08USF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:22ECU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:17ECU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:38USF Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:2040% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.3%
25-K.Mitchell to ECU 31 for 6 yards (7-M.Hampton).Similar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
60.3%
25-K.Mitchell to ECU 36 for 5 yards (16-B.Nichols).Similar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
60.2%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 8-A.Omotosho. 8-A.Omotosho to ECU 40 for 4 yards (3-V.Davis,7-M.Hampton).Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
60.2%
25-K.Mitchell to ECU 41 for 1 yard (23-T.Mangum).Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+16
60.2%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 11-B.Proehl. 11-B.Proehl to USF 43 for 16 yards (16-B.Nichols).Similar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
60.0%
25-K.Mitchell to USF 41 for 2 yards (24-M.Harris).Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+17
59.9%
12-H.Ahlers to USF 24 for 17 yards (3-V.Davis).Similar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
59.8%
Penalty on USF 3-V.Davis, Personal Foul, 12 yards, enforced at USF 24. No Play.Similar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
59.8%
25-K.Mitchell to USF 11 for 1 yard (16-B.Nichols,23-T.Mangum).Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+3
59.7%
25-K.Mitchell to USF 8 for 3 yards (8-C.Townsel).Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
59.8%
12-H.Ahlers incomplete. Intended for 11-B.Proehl.Similar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
59.7%
9-J.Verity 25 yards Field Goal is Good.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:3060% → 62%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
59.9%
3-J.McCloud complete to 19-B.Miller. 19-B.Miller to USF 37 for 2 yards (4-M.Fleming).Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
60.0%
3-J.McCloud complete to 18-D.Dukes. 18-D.Dukes to USF 43 for 6 yards (20-N.Johnson,33-D.Faison).Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
60.2%
10-K.Joiner to USF 49 for 6 yards (35-J.Wilson).Similar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
60.3%
3-J.McCloud complete to 8-L.Williams. 8-L.Williams to ECU 45 for 6 yards (4-M.Fleming).Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+37
60.4%
3-J.McCloud complete to 89-M.Brinkman. 89-M.Brinkman to ECU 8 for 37 yards (17-W.Saba).Similar
Q1 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
61.7%
1-J.Ford runs 8 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
14 plays · 59 yds · 4:5439% → 42%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
60.7%
12-H.Ahlers scrambles, pushed ob at ECU 48 for 7 yards (16-B.Nichols).Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+9
60.6%
47-R.Harris to USF 43 for 9 yards (2-N.Roberts).Similar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
60.6%
12-H.Ahlers scrambles to USF 32 for 11 yards (17-B.Green).Similar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
60.3%
47-R.Harris to USF 28 for 4 yards (45-D.Grant).Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+5
60.2%
25-K.Mitchell to USF 23 for 5 yards (24-M.Harris).Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+5
60.5%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 11-B.Proehl. 11-B.Proehl to USF 18 for 5 yards (8-C.Townsel).Similar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
60.2%
47-R.Harris to USF 15 for 3 yards (6-D.Bellamy,8-C.Townsel).Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+7
60.2%
47-R.Harris to USF 8 for 7 yards (2-N.Roberts,17-B.Green).Similar
Q1 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
60.2%
12-H.Ahlers incomplete. Intended for 22-T.Snead.Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
60.2%
12-H.Ahlers to USF 2 for 6 yards (5-T.Grier).Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
60.5%
12-H.Ahlers incomplete. Intended for 11-B.Proehl.Similar
Q1 3:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.5%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 40-D.Pinnix. 40-D.Pinnix runs 2 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1059% → 57%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.5%
3-J.McCloud complete to 8-L.Williams. 8-L.Williams to USF 33 for 8 yards (20-N.Johnson).Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
59.3%
10-K.Joiner to USF 41 for 8 yards (19-R.Kennedy).Similar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
59.4%
10-K.Joiner to USF 41 for no gain (12-X.Smith).Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
58.9%
3-J.McCloud complete to 8-L.Williams. 8-L.Williams to USF 40 for -1 yard.Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 11
OWN 40
-6
58.0%
3-J.McCloud sacked at USF 34 for -6 yards (35-J.Wilson).Similar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 17
OWN 34
+44
57.2%
39-T.Schneider punts 44 yards from USF 34 to ECU 22, fair catch by 22-T.Snead.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 1:0542% → 47%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
58.1%
25-K.Mitchell to ECU 27 for 5 yards (7-M.Hampton).Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-2
57.7%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 25-K.Mitchell. 25-K.Mitchell to ECU 25 for -2 yards (5-T.Grier).Similar
Q1 0:27
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+75
53.2%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 5-C.Johnson. 5-C.Johnson runs 75 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4052% → 51%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.8%
1-J.Ford to USF 27 for 2 yards (12-X.Smith).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
51.8%
1-J.Ford to USF 36 for 9 yards (51-A.Ramseur).Similar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
51.9%
1-J.Ford to USF 39 for 3 yards (51-A.Ramseur).Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-1
51.9%
3-J.McCloud complete to 5-R.St. Felix. 5-R.St. Felix to USF 38 for -1 yard (27-S.Dourseau).Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+5
50.5%
3-J.McCloud scrambles to USF 47, FUMBLES (4-M.Fleming). 90-E.Morris to USF 42 for no gain.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7TD
1 play · 42 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
39.7%
47-R.Harris runs 42 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8DOWNS
15 plays · 84 yds · 4:0143% → 41%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
42.7%
2-D.Felix to USF 7 for -1 yard (12-X.Smith).Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+13
42.3%
3-J.McCloud complete to 19-B.Miller. 19-B.Miller to USF 20 for 13 yards (17-W.Saba).Similar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
42.2%
3-J.McCloud to USF 25 for 5 yards (12-X.Smith).Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-2
41.8%
2-D.Felix to USF 23 for -2 yards (35-J.Wilson).Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+23
41.2%
3-J.McCloud complete to 8-L.Williams. 8-L.Williams to USF 46 for 23 yards (20-N.Johnson,13-D.Robinson). Team penalty on ECU, Offside, declined.Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
42.1%
3-J.McCloud complete to 19-B.Miller. 19-B.Miller to ECU 42 for 12 yards (17-W.Saba).Similar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
42.2%
3-J.McCloud incomplete. Intended for 80-T.Horne.Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+14
42.0%
10-K.Joiner to ECU 28 for 14 yards (20-N.Johnson).Similar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
42.5%
3-J.McCloud complete to 5-R.St. Felix. 5-R.St. Felix to ECU 13 for 15 yards (4-M.Fleming).Similar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
42.2%
10-K.Joiner to ECU 13 for no gain (51-A.Ramseur).Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
42.0%
3-J.McCloud complete to 85-J.Mathis. 85-J.Mathis to ECU 8 for 5 yards (27-S.Dourseau).Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
41.1%
3-J.McCloud incomplete.Similar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 5
OPP 8
0
40.5%
3-J.McCloud incomplete. Intended for 19-B.Miller.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:0965% → 66%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
35.5%
47-R.Harris to ECU 10 for 2 yards (16-B.Nichols,5-T.Grier).Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
34.9%
12-H.Ahlers incomplete. Intended for 11-B.Proehl.Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+26
35.2%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 22-T.Snead. 22-T.Snead to ECU 36 for 26 yards (7-M.Hampton,30-I.Cromarty).Similar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
34.0%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 47-R.Harris. 47-R.Harris to ECU 43 for 7 yards (30-I.Cromarty).Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
34.6%
25-K.Mitchell to ECU 45 for 2 yards (2-N.Roberts).Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
33.8%
12-H.Ahlers incomplete. Intended for 8-A.Omotosho.Similar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+55
33.9%
43-J.Young punts 55 yards from ECU 45 to USF End Zone. touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:4637% → 47%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+52
37.0%
3-J.McCloud complete to 4-O.Dollison. 4-O.Dollison to ECU 28 for 52 yards (20-N.Johnson).Similar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
39.5%
3-J.McCloud complete to 18-D.Dukes. 18-D.Dukes to ECU 22 for 6 yards (35-J.Wilson).Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-1
39.1%
1-J.Ford to ECU 23 for -1 yard (12-X.Smith).Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+16
37.9%
1-J.Ford to ECU 7 for 16 yards (20-N.Johnson).Similar
Q2 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
47.4%
1-J.Ford runs 7 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11MISSED FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0957% → 57%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
42.6%
25-K.Mitchell to USF 33 for 1 yard (0-D.Evans).Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+4
42.2%
25-K.Mitchell to USF 29 for 4 yards (59-A.Mims).Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
42.2%
12-H.Ahlers incomplete. Intended for 5-C.Johnson.Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 5
OPP 29
0
43.5%
9-J.Verity 36 yards Field Goal is No Good.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12TD
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
26.3%
47-R.Harris runs 10 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 1:4132% → 35%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.5%
1-J.Ford to USF 25 for no gain (12-X.Smith).Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+31
30.9%
3-J.McCloud complete to 8-L.Williams. 8-L.Williams to ECU 44 for 31 yards (20-N.Johnson).Similar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
33.2%
3-J.McCloud incomplete. Intended for 8-L.Williams.Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+17
32.8%
3-J.McCloud complete to 18-D.Dukes. 18-D.Dukes to ECU 27 for 17 yards (2-S.Tucker).Similar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-9
34.1%
3-J.McCloud to ECU 36 for -9 yards.Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 19
OPP 36
+7
31.9%
3-J.McCloud complete to 1-J.Ford. 1-J.Ford to ECU 29 for 7 yards (20-N.Johnson).Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+14
31.9%
3-J.McCloud complete to 8-L.Williams. 8-L.Williams to ECU 15 for 14 yards (27-S.Dourseau).Similar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
33.5%
3-J.McCloud incomplete.Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
33.4%
3-J.McCloud pushed ob at ECU 14 for 1 yard (27-S.Dourseau).Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
32.0%
3-J.McCloud incomplete.Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
34.6%
28-J.Sackett 31 yards Field Goal is Good.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:0932% → 29%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
31.8%
3-J.McCloud complete to 89-M.Brinkman. 89-M.Brinkman to USF 25 for 10 yards (27-S.Dourseau).Similar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
31.9%
10-K.Joiner to USF 20 for -5 yards (51-A.Ramseur).Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+17
31.3%
3-J.McCloud to USF 37 for 17 yards (12-X.Smith). Team penalty on USF, Holding, 10 yards, enforced at USF 37.Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
31.7%
3-J.McCloud complete to 18-D.Dukes. 18-D.Dukes to USF 40 for 13 yards (27-S.Dourseau).Similar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
32.9%
3-J.McCloud sacked at USF 35 for -5 yards (51-A.Ramseur).Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+5
30.8%
3-J.McCloud complete to 8-L.Williams. 8-L.Williams to USF 40 for 5 yards (20-N.Johnson).Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-2
30.3%
3-J.McCloud to USF 38 for -2 yards (51-A.Ramseur).Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 12
OWN 38
+8
29.4%
25-K.Scribner punts 47 yards from USF 38. 22-T.Snead to ECU 23 for 8 yards (29-B.Norris).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15PUNT
14 plays · 23 yds · 5:0073% → 79%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
27.3%
Team penalty on ECU, Unsportsmanlike conduct, offsetting. Team penalty on USF, Unsportsmanlike conduct, offsetting. No Play.Similar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
27.3%
47-R.Harris to ECU 25 for 2 yards (17-B.Green,5-T.Grier).Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+11
26.4%
47-R.Harris to ECU 36 for 11 yards (5-T.Grier,6-D.Bellamy).Similar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
25.3%
47-R.Harris to ECU 39 for 3 yards (6-D.Bellamy,59-A.Mims).Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+7
24.4%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 22-T.Snead. 22-T.Snead to ECU 46 for 7 yards (16-B.Nichols).Similar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
22.4%
47-R.Harris to ECU 49 for 3 yards (23-T.Mangum,24-M.Harris).Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
22.1%
12-H.Ahlers incomplete. Intended for 22-T.Snead.Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+10
22.1%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 5-C.Johnson. 5-C.Johnson to USF 41 for 10 yards (2-N.Roberts).Similar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
21.5%
47-R.Harris to USF 39 for 2 yards (5-T.Grier).Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-2
20.9%
12-H.Ahlers sacked at USF 41 for -2 yards, FUMBLES (5-T.Grier). 12-H.Ahlers runs ob at USF 41 for no gain.Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+2
20.8%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 84-Z.Byrd. 84-Z.Byrd to USF 39 for 2 yards (5-T.Grier).Similar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 8
OPP 39
+15
22.0%
Penalty on ECU 71-B.Malovic, Unsportsmanlike conduct, 15 yards, enforced at USF 39. No Play.Similar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 23
OWN 46
+37
20.6%
43-J.Young punts 37 yards from ECU 46 to USF 17, fair catch by 9-K.Sails.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2723% → 20%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
22.7%
3-J.McCloud complete to 19-B.Miller. 19-B.Miller runs ob at USF 28 for 11 yards.Similar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
22.6%
3-J.McCloud incomplete. Intended for 84-X.Weaver.Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
22.0%
3-J.McCloud complete to 10-K.Joiner. 10-K.Joiner to USF 32 for 4 yards (4-M.Fleming).Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 6
OWN 32
-1
22.0%
3-J.McCloud sacked at USF 31 for -1 yard (34-M.Berry).Similar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+17
20.1%
25-K.Scribner punts 36 yards from USF 31. 22-T.Snead to USF 50 for 17 yards (15-J.Curry).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 4:1684% → 97%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
16.3%
25-K.Mitchell to USF 50 for no gain (30-I.Cromarty).Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 0
+25
16.1%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 80-S.Calhoun. 80-S.Calhoun to USF 25 for 25 yards (2-N.Roberts).Similar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
15.5%
25-K.Mitchell to USF 18 for 7 yards (30-I.Cromarty).Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 3
OPP 18
-3
14.6%
25-K.Mitchell to USF 21 for -3 yards (15-J.Curry).Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+9
14.3%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 22-T.Snead. 22-T.Snead to USF 12 for 9 yards (6-D.Bellamy).Similar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
13.8%
47-R.Harris to USF 10 for 2 yards (24-M.Harris).Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-4
13.4%
47-R.Harris to USF 14 for -4 yards (24-M.Harris).Similar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+14
3.4%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 5-C.Johnson. 5-C.Johnson runs 14 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
5.5%
3-J.McCloud to USF 24 for -1 yard (24-T.Wilk).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:146% → 4%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+15
6.1%
Team penalty on ECU, Personal Foul, 15 yards, enforced at ECU 50. No Play.Similar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
4.5%
3-J.McCloud complete to 19-B.Miller. 19-B.Miller to ECU 30 for 5 yards.Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
4.6%
3-J.McCloud incomplete. Intended for 8-L.Williams.Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
4.4%
2-D.Felix to ECU 30 for no gain (12-X.Smith).Similar
Q4 12:11
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+4
4.0%
3-J.McCloud to ECU 26 for 4 yards (51-A.Ramseur,35-J.Wilson).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20FG
15 plays · 47 yds · 8:3097% → 100%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
2.8%
47-R.Harris to ECU 33 for 7 yards (2-N.Roberts,91-R.Yates).Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+6
2.5%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 11-B.Proehl. 11-B.Proehl to ECU 39 for 6 yards (9-K.Sails).Similar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
2.2%
47-R.Harris to ECU 43 for 4 yards (10-K.Kegler).Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
2.1%
25-K.Mitchell to ECU 46 for 3 yards (6-D.Bellamy,17-B.Green).Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+9
1.9%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 11-B.Proehl. 11-B.Proehl to USF 45 for 9 yards (0-D.Evans).Similar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
1.8%
47-R.Harris to USF 43 for 2 yards (24-M.Harris).Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
1.6%
12-H.Ahlers incomplete. Intended for 80-S.Calhoun.Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+7
1.6%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 83-C.Burnette. 83-C.Burnette to USF 36 for 7 yards (5-T.Grier).Similar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+4
1.6%
40-D.Pinnix to USF 32 for 4 yards (9-K.Sails).Similar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
1.3%
40-D.Pinnix to USF 24 for 8 yards (24-M.Harris).Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+5
1.2%
40-D.Pinnix to USF 19 for 5 yards (6-D.Bellamy).Similar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
1.0%
40-D.Pinnix to USF 18 for 1 yard (40-J.Vaughn).Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+2
0.9%
40-D.Pinnix to USF 16 for 2 yards (45-D.Grant).Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-4
0.9%
12-H.Ahlers to USF 20 for -4 yards (23-T.Mangum).Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+37
0.2%
9-J.Verity 37 yards Field Goal is Good.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:250% → 1%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
0.2%
0-N.Johnson complete to 8-L.Williams. 8-L.Williams to ECU 47 for 7 yards (12-X.Smith).Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+13
0.2%
21-B.Battie to ECU 34 for 13 yards (12-X.Smith,17-W.Saba).Similar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
0.2%
0-N.Johnson scrambles to ECU 24 for 10 yards (12-X.Smith).Similar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-7
0.2%
0-N.Johnson sacked at ECU 31 for -7 yards (12-X.Smith).Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 17
OPP 31
0
0.2%
0-N.Johnson complete to 21-B.Battie. 21-B.Battie to ECU 38 for -7 yards (95-H.Haji-Badri). Penalty on ECU 24-T.Wilk, Facemasking, 15 yards, enforced at ECU 31. No Play.Similar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
0.2%
0-N.Johnson complete to 5-R.St. Felix. 5-R.St. Felix to ECU 15 for 1 yard (21-J.McMillian).Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
0.2%
0-N.Johnson incomplete. Intended for 8-L.Williams.Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+15
1.1%
0-N.Johnson scrambles, runs 15 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
0.6%
Team penalty on USF, 12 players, 5 yards, enforced at ECU 18. No Play.Similar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 5
OWN 23
-1
0.6%
12-H.Ahlers kneels at ECU 22 for -1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:22
47-R.Harris runs 10 yards for a touchdown.
-17.3
TD · Q2 13:26
47-R.Harris runs 42 yards for a touchdown.
-10.8
TD · Q3 0:17
12-H.Ahlers complete to 5-C.Johnson. 5-C.Johnson runs 14 yards for a touchdown.
-10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com