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USF

South Florida 7 at Cincinnati 28

CIN
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:31 · Trent Schneider punt for 47 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 7 yds to the SFla 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Pregame prior+5.6Home team on offense+32.0Score differential+22.0Garbage-time factor+7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.0
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 8:29: Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Mitchell Brinkman — USF win probability +1.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:39: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 13 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +3.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:01: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +5.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:49: Johnny Ford run for 2 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK) — USF win probability +5.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:36: Kenny Scribner kickoff for 62 yds , Tre Tucker return for 97 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +6.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:33USF 4th & 11 at CIN 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:00USF 4th & 8 at CIN 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:00CIN 4th & 18 at CIN 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00USF 4th & 3 at CIN 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:24CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:14USF 4th & 11 at USF 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:32CIN 4th & 4 at USF 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.1%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:22CIN 4th & 6 at USF 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    89.7%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:22USF 4th & 3 at CIN 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−0.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:44USF 4th & 14 at CIN 20, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:00CIN 4th & 10 at USF 45, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:31USF 4th & 16 at USF 1, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:18CIN 4th & 14 at USF 45, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:28CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:39CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:01CIN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:49USF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.3%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Johnny Ford for 1 yd to the SFla 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
93.3%
Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to Mitchell Brinkman, broken up by Arquon BushSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
93.3%
Katravis Marsh pass intercepted Coby Bryant return for no gain to the SFla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
93.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+4
93.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 14:28
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+5
93.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young for 5 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
93.2%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Mac Harris return for 2 yds to the SFla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
92.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-1
92.7%
Katravis Marsh pass intercepted Ahmad Gardner return for 1 yd to the Cincy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
92.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 11 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
92.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 45 Gerrid Doaks fumbled, forced by Blake Green, recovered by SFla Thad MangumSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
92.4%
Johnny Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-4
92.4%
Johnny Ford run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 11
OPP 46
0
92.4%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to DeVontres DukesSimilar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 11
OPP 46
+38
92.5%
Trent Schneider punt for 29 yds CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (Curtis Brooks) to the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
14 plays · 92 yds · 6:0292% → 92%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
92.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+26
92.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 26 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
92.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 8 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
92.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+10
92.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 10 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
92.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
92.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 4 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+7
92.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 7 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
92.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 9 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
92.4%
Charles McClelland run for no gain to the SFla 24Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+11
92.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 11 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
91.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the SFla 10Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
92.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 10 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7MISSED FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:159% → 9%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
91.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
91.1%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
91.4%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+35
91.3%
Jared Sackett 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
91.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael YoungSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-1
91.7%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 27Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 11
OWN 27
-7
91.5%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Antonio Grier for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 18
OWN 20
0
91.4%
James Smith punt for 53 yds, fair catch by KJ Sails at the SFla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9DOWNS
14 plays · 41 yds · 1:309% → 9%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
91.2%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Bryce Miller for 5 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
91.1%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
91.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
91.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+4
91.1%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+5
90.9%
MARSH, Katravis pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, L, PENALTY CIN offside (SANDERS, Myjai) 5 yards to the USF49, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
90.8%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-15
91.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Johnny Ford) to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 25
OWN 34
+21
91.3%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to DeVontres Dukes for 21 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+6
90.5%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 6 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
90.4%
Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to DeVontres Dukes, broken up by Ahmad GardnerSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
90.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+4
90.5%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 4 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 32
0
90.8%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
90.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 3 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
90.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
90.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
90.6%
James Smith punt for 60 yds, downed at the SFla 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
90.7%
Katravis Marsh run for 2 yds to the SFla 5Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+6
90.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 6 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+2
90.8%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Chris Carter for 2 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
90.5%
Katravis Marsh pass intercepted Coby Bryant return for no gain to the SFla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12INT
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
91.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 15 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
91.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 8 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+1
91.1%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the SFla 20Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+7
90.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 7 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
91.1%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted, touchback. Christopher Townsel return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:1510% → 9%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.9%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Mitchell BrinkmanSimilar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
89.9%
Johnny Ford run for 2 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+5
90.2%
FORTIN, Cade sacked for loss of 8 yards to the USF14 (TUCKY, Ethan), PENALTY CIN offside (PONDER, Elijah) 5 yards to the USF27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
89.9%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
89.7%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Kelley Joiner for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
89.9%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
90.5%
Johnny Ford run for no gain to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
90.7%
Trent Schneider punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:5390% → 94%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
90.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 10 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
90.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for 13 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
90.7%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+1
90.7%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+3
90.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+7
90.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young for 7 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
90.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 9 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 1
OPP 20
0
90.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the SFla 20Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+3
90.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the SFla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
90.9%
Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
93.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 13 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15END OF HALF
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:377% → 8%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.1%
Kelley Joiner run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
92.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
93.2%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 15 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
92.5%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16MISSED FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:3493% → 92%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
93.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 10 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
93.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+9
93.0%
Charles McClelland run for 9 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
93.3%
RIDDER, Desmond pass incomplete to YOUNG, Michael, PENALTY USF pass interference (TOWNSEL, Chris) 15 yards to the USF24, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
93.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+1
93.4%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the SFla 20Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
92.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Gerrid DoaksSimilar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
91.9%
Cole Smith 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Mitchell BrinkmanSimilar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
92.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Latrell Williams for 16 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
91.5%
McCLOUD, Jordan pass incomplete to BRINKMAN, Mitch, QB hurry by DUBLANKO, Joel, PENALTY USF holding (JACOBS, D) 10 yards to the USF26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+3
92.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Johnny Ford for 3 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+16
92.3%
Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the SFla 30 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Darrian Beavers) to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
91.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to DeVontres Dukes for 13 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-8
90.7%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Myjai Sanders for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 18
50
0
91.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Mitchell BrinkmanSimilar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 18
50
+15
92.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 15 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+2
91.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Carter for 2 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 4:1092% → 98%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
92.4%
Charles McClelland run for 9 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+1
92.8%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
92.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+6
92.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 6 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+35
92.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 35 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
92.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the SFla 6Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
92.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the SFla 3Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:062% → 8%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
97.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 11 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Latrell Williams, broken up by Ja'von HicksSimilar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
97.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 10 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+28
97.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Johnny Ford for 28 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
97.4%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the Cincy 15Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
97.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Randall St. Felix, broken up by Coby BryantSimilar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 9
OPP 15
-8
97.7%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Malik Vann for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 20 Jordan McCloud fumbled, recovered by SFla Michael Wiggs , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+18
98.4%
Randall St. Felix pass complete to Jordan McCloud for 18 yds to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
98.1%
Johnny Ford run for no gain to the Cincy 2Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.5%
Johnny Ford run for 2 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21INT
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:361% → 1%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
98.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to DeVontres Dukes for 13 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
98.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 15 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
98.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Johnny Ford for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+13
98.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Johnny Ford for 13 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
98.7%
Jordan McCloud run for 1 yd to the Cincy 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
98.6%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Arquon Bush return for no gain to the Cincy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22INT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
99.3%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Cincy 6Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 9
OWN 6
-3
99.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Leonard Taylor) to the Cincy 3Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+9
99.3%
Jerome Ford run for 9 yds to the Cincy 12Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+10
99.3%
Jerome Ford run for 10 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
99.3%
Charles McClelland run for 7 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+3
99.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 3 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 3 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+4
99.3%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-3
99.4%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Brock Nichols return for 3 yds to the SFla 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Mitchell Brinkman, broken up by James WigginsSimilar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-8
99.1%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Darrian Beavers return for 8 yds to the SFla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
99.5%
MCCLELLAND, C. rush for 15 yards to the USF30, out-of-bounds (NICHOLS, Brock), PENALTY CIN holding (WHYLE, Josh) 10 yards to the CIN45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+2
99.5%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 18
OWN 47
-2
99.5%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 20
OWN 45
+10
99.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 10 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
99.5%
James Smith punt for 38 yds, downed at the SFla 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-6
99.5%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Ty Van Fossen for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 1 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 16
OWN 1
0
99.5%
Leonard Parker run for no gain to the SFla 1Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 16
OWN 1
0
99.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 16
OWN 1
+7
99.5%
Trent Schneider punt for 47 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 7 yds to the SFla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael YoungSimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
99.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 8
OPP 39
-1
99.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 9
OPP 40
-5
99.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
99.6%
James Smith punt for 36 yds, downed at the SFla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 51 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
99.5%
Leonard Parker run for 3 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+4
99.5%
Leonard Parker run for 4 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+27
99.5%
Leonard Parker run for 27 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
99.5%
Leonard Parker run for 6 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+9
99.5%
Leonard Parker run for 9 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.4%
Leonard Parker run for 2 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:36
Kenny Scribner kickoff for 62 yds , Tre Tucker return for 97 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q3 0:49
Johnny Ford run for 2 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK)
-5.6
TD · Q3 4:01
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
+5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com