Try the model
WCU

Western Carolina 14 at Liberty 58

LIB
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · Williams Stadium (VA)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadWCU aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreWCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:30 · Brandon Dickerson punt for 44 yds , Demario Douglas returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 21 LIBERTY Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Liber 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Pregame prior+45.6Home team on offense+1.9Score differential+0.4Blowout margin+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:13: Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 44 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK) — LIB win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:09: Will Jones pass complete to Clayton Bardall for 9 yds for a TD (Richard McCollum KICK) — WCU win probability +0.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: WCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:50: Malik Willis run for 11 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK) — LIB win probability +0.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:13: Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 40 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK) — LIB win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:47: Malik Willis run for 43 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK) — LIB win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 11:57WCU 4th & 6 at LIB 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:30WCU 4th & 13 at WCU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:39LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:50WCU 4th & 10 at LIB 32, down 7
    Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:28WCU 4th & 7 at WCU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:51LIB 4th & 5 at WCU 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:19WCU 4th & 5 at LIB 32, down 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:35WCU 4th & 9 at WCU 31, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:46WCU 4th & 5 at WCU 30, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:09LIB 4th & 18 at WCU 36, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    42% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:20LIB 4th & 2 at WCU 6, up 44
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8WCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:47LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:13LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:09WCU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:50LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:13LIB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:47LIB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:49LIB Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:12WCU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:49LIB Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:49LIB Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WCUDrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:581% → 2%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.8%
Mark Wright pass complete to Reggie Jones for 8 yds to the WCaro 33Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
98.8%
Donnavan Spencer run for 8 yds to the WCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
98.7%
Mark Wright pass complete to Owen Cosenke for 11 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
98.7%
Mark Wright pass complete to Owen Cosenke for 6 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+4
98.6%
Mark Wright pass complete to Reggie Jones for 4 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
98.6%
Mark Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
98.6%
Mark Wright run for 4 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
98.5%
Mark Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+51
98.5%
Richard McCollum 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:0899% → 98%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
98.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 8 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+5
98.5%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
98.5%
Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the WCaro 47Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+8
98.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 8 yds to the WCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
98.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 11 yds to the WCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
98.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 10 yds to the WCaro 18 LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WCaro 28Similar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
98.3%
Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the WCaro 22Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+4
98.3%
Malik Willis pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 4 yds to the WCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
98.2%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the WCaro 17Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+13
98.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 13 yds to the WCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
98.1%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the WCaro 1Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.3%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:152% → 2%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.2%
Mark Wright pass complete to Reggie Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the WCaro 23Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-13
98.1%
Mark Wright sacked by Quinton Reese for a loss of 13 yards to the WCaro 10Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 25
OWN 10
+12
98.1%
Mark Wright pass complete to Donnavan Spencer for 12 yds to the WCaro 22Similar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+54
98.0%
Brandon Dickerson punt for 44 yds , Demario Douglas returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 21 LIBERTY Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Liber 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4798% → 98%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
98.0%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
97.9%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+9
97.9%
Malik Willis run for 9 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
97.8%
Peytton Pickett run for no gain to the Liber 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:382% → 2%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
97.7%
Mark Wright run for 4 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
97.6%
Mark Wright pass complete to Donnavan Spencer for 1 yd to the Liber 27Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 5
OPP 27
-5
97.6%
Mark Wright sacked by Durrell Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 32Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 10
OPP 32
0
97.7%
Brandon Dickerson punt for 23 yds, downed at the Liber 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6TD
7 plays · 91 yds · 2:2598% → 98%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
97.7%
Joshua Mack run for 13 yds to the Liber 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
97.7%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+16
97.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 16 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
97.7%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
97.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 4 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+9
97.5%
Malik Willis run for 9 yds to the WCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
98.2%
Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 44 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:582% → 3%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.9%
Caleb Ferguson run for 1 yd to the WCaro 26Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+19
97.9%
Will Jones run for 4 yds to the WCaro 30 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the WCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
97.8%
Caleb Ferguson run for 2 yds to the WCaro 47Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+30
97.8%
Will Jones pass complete to Owen Cosenke for 30 yds to the Liber 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
97.6%
Will Jones pass complete to Daquan Patten for 14 yds to the Liber 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
97.6%
Will Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
96.7%
Will Jones pass complete to Clayton Bardall for 9 yds for a TD (Richard McCollum KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1297% → 98%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario DouglasSimilar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.1%
Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+54
96.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 54 yds to the WCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
97.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to Trevor Hobbs for 4 yds to the WCaro 15Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+4
97.1%
Shedro Louis run for 4 yds to the WCaro 11Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+11
97.9%
Malik Willis run for 11 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:142% → 3%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-8
97.7%
Will Jones sacked by Tre'Shaun Clark for a loss of 8 yards to the WCaro 11Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 18
OWN 11
+6
97.6%
Will Jones run for 6 yds to the WCaro 17Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+10
97.6%
Will Jones pass complete to Daquan Patten for 10 yds to the WCaro 27Similar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 2
OWN 27
-5
97.6%
WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WCaro 22Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 7
OWN 22
+8
97.5%
Brandon Dickerson punt for 48 yds , Demario Douglas returns for 8 yds to the Liber 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:5698% → 99%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
97.6%
Malik Willis run for 10 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
97.6%
Malik Willis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 44 Malik Willis fumbled, recovered by LiberSimilar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+11
97.5%
Malik Willis run for 11 yds to the WCaro 45Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+5
97.4%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the WCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.5%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the WCaro 40Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
98.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 40 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 11INT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.7%
WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Participation (-5 Yards) to the WCaro 20Similar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+12
98.7%
Donnavan Spencer run for 12 yds to the WCaro 32Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
98.6%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the WCaro 34Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
98.6%
Donnavan Spencer run for 6 yds to the WCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
98.6%
Donnavan Spencer run for 2 yds to the WCaro 42Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
98.6%
Will Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-18
98.6%
Will Jones pass intercepted Durrell Johnson return for 18 yds to the WCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12MISSED FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2699% → 99%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
99.0%
Peytton Pickett run for a loss of 3 yards to the WCaro 35Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 13
OPP 35
0
99.0%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 13
OPP 35
+8
99.0%
Malik Willis run for 8 yds to the WCaro 27Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+45
99.0%
Alex Barbir 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:421% → 1%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
98.6%
Donnavan Spencer run for 9 yds to the WCaro 36Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 1
OWN 36
0
98.5%
Calvin Jones run for no gain to the WCaro 36Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+8
98.6%
Mark Wright run for 8 yds to the WCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
98.6%
Mark Wright sacked by Elijah James for a loss of 3 yards to the WCaro 41Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+10
99.2%
Donnavan Spencer run for 10 yds to the Liber 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 0:5099% → 100%
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
98.9%
Joshua Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 11
50
+7
98.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 7 yds to the WCaro 43Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+43
99.7%
Malik Willis run for 43 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 15MISSED FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.7%
Mikai Stanley run for 5 yds to the WCaro 35Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+28
99.7%
Will Jones run for 28 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
99.7%
Will Jones pass complete to Owen Cosenke for 5 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
99.7%
Will Jones pass complete to Calvin Jones for no gain to the Liber 32Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
99.7%
Will Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+49
99.6%
Richard McCollum 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:26100% → 100%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
99.8%
Willis, Malik pass complete to Douglas, Demario for loss of 3 yards to the LIBERTY29, PENALTY LIBERTY face mask 15 yards to the LIBERTY17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 25
OWN 17
+83
99.8%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 83 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:020% → 0%
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.8%
Mikai Stanley run for 1 yd to the WCaro 31Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Will Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Will Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+8
99.8%
Brandon Dickerson punt for 49 yds , Demario Douglas returns for 8 yds to the Liber 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
50
+12
99.8%
Shedro Louis run for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Liber 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.8%
Shedro Louis run for 3 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+13
99.8%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Demario Douglas for 13 yds to the WCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.8%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Trevor Hobbs for 1 yd Trevor Hobbs fumbled, recovered by WCaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 19TD
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:330% → 0%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.8%
Donnavan Spencer run for 2 yds to the WCaro 45Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Mark Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+10
99.8%
Mark Wright pass complete to Dylan Abernathy for 10 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.8%
Donnavan Spencer run for no gain to the Liber 45Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
99.9%
Donnavan Spencer run for 15 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.8%
Mark Wright pass complete to Owen Cosenke for 4 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+11
99.8%
Mark Wright pass complete to Donnavan Spencer for 11 yds to the Liber 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
99.8%
Donnavan Spencer run for 6 yds to the Liber 9Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+7
99.8%
LIBERTY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the Liber 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
99.8%
WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Liber 7Similar
Q3 3:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Mark Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.9%
Donnavan Spencer run for 4 yds to the Liber 3Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Mark Wright run for 3 yds for a TD (Richard McCollum KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
99.9%
Joshua Mack run for 8 yds to the Liber 25Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 26Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+14
99.9%
Joshua Mack run for 14 yds to the Liber 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.9%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 41Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Demario Douglas for 3 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+56
99.9%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to CJ Daniels for 56 yds for a TD (Jason Stricker PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 21INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Donnavan Spencer run for 5 yds to the WCaro 30Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Mark Wright run for 5 yds to the WCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Mark Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-6
99.9%
Mark Wright pass intercepted Carl Poole return for 6 yds to the WCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22TD
2 plays · 35 yds · 0:25100% → 100%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
99.9%
Peytton Pickett run for 1 yd to the WCaro 34Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+34
99.9%
Peytton Pickett run for 34 yds for a TD (Jason Stricker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WCaro 20Similar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Mark Wright run for 1 yd to the WCaro 21Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+1
99.9%
Mark Wright pass complete to Luke Sutton for 1 yd to the WCaro 22Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+8
99.9%
Mark Wright run for 8 yds to the WCaro 30Similar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Caleb Ferguson punt for 8 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WCaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24FG
7 plays · 2 yds · 4:22100% → 100%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
99.9%
Troy Henderson run for 9 yds to the WCaro 29Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+1
99.9%
Troy Henderson run for 1 yd to the WCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.9%
Troy Henderson run for 3 yds to the WCaro 25Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-5
99.9%
Troy Henderson run for 5 yds to the WCaro 20 LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WCaro 30Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 12
OPP 30
-5
99.9%
Johnathan Bennett sacked by Ty Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the WCaro 35Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 17
OPP 35
-1
99.9%
Troy Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WCaro 36Similar
Q4 6:09
4TH & 18
OPP 36
+54
99.9%
Alex Barbir 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 25FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
100.0%
Malik Richardson run for 4 yds to the WCaro 13Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+1
100.0%
Malik Richardson run for 1 yd to the WCaro 14 Malik Richardson fumbled, forced by Carl Poole, recovered by Liber Carl PooleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 26FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
100.0%
Troy Henderson run for 1 yd to the WCaro 13Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+4
100.0%
Troy Henderson run for 4 yds to the WCaro 9Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+3
100.0%
Troy Henderson run for 3 yds to the WCaro 6Similar
Q4 2:20
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+5
100.0%
Troy Henderson run for 5 yds Troy Henderson fumbled, recovered by WCaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
100.0%
Haki Bradley run for 3 yds to the WCaro 23Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
100.0%
Will Jones pass complete to Luke Sutton for 6 yds to the WCaro 29Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
100.0%
Haki Bradley run for 3 yds to the WCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
100.0%
Haki Bradley run for 2 yds to the WCaro 34Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-3
100.0%
Malik Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the WCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:13
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 40 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q2 12:09
Will Jones pass complete to Clayton Bardall for 9 yds for a TD (Richard McCollum KICK)
-0.9
TD · Q2 9:50
Malik Willis run for 11 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)
+0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com