Try the model
NAVY

Navy 0 at Army 15

ARMY
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDSAFETYFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:18 · Zach Harding punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Pregame prior+5.4Home team on offense+8.3Garbage-time factor+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:37: Timeout NAVY, clock 08:37 — ARMY win probability +3.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:18: Timeout ARMY, clock 14:18 — ARMY win probability +2.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:04: Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Navy 10 — ARMY win probability +5.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:02: Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +11.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:54: Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 14 — ARMY win probability +4.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 10NAVY made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:57NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:49ARMY 4th & 5 at ARMY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:51NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:41ARMY 4th & 12 at NAVY 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:41NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:14ARMY 4th & 7 at ARMY 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:12NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:41ARMY 4th & 4 at NAVY 22, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.5%−0.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−4.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:22NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−1.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:03NAVY 4th & 1 at ARMY 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    30.3%−3.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−11.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:25ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:37NAVY 4th & 13 at NAVY 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−3.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:17ARMY 4th & 2 at NAVY 48, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:58NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:18ARMY 4th & 7 at NAVY 36, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    71.8%−0.8
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%−1.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:02NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:21ARMY 4th & 8 at NAVY 33, up 10
    Close callPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    87.2%−<0.1
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:20ARMY 4th & 23 at NAVY 23, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−2.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:20NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q4 11:02ARMY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
72.2%
Tyrell Robinson run for 2 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
72.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 11 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
72.2%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
72.2%
Tyrell Robinson run for 3 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-5
72.2%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Army 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+2
72.2%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+2
72.2%
Zach Harding punt for 44 yds , Mark Walker returns for 2 yds to the Navy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
71.4%
Xavier Arline run for 5 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+5
71.4%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
71.4%
Nelson Smith run for 6 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+2
71.2%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+5
71.3%
Xavier Arline run for 5 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
71.1%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
71.1%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
71.2%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+12
71.5%
Daniel Davies punt for 35 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for 12 yds to the Army 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
70.4%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
70.6%
Anthony Adkins run for 4 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-1
70.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 40Similar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+4
70.1%
Zach Harding punt for 41 yds , Mark Walker returns for 4 yds to the Navy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
69.7%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+9
69.8%
Xavier Arline run for 9 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 2
OWN 31
-5
69.6%
NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
70.0%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 7
OWN 26
+22
70.4%
Daniel Davies punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Robinson at the ARMY 38 NAVY Penalty, kick catching interference (-14 Yards) to the Navy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5FG
6 plays · 28 yds · 3:2871% → 69%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
70.8%
Tyrell Robinson run for 2 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+28
70.8%
Tyhier Tyler pass complete to Tyrell Robinson for 28 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
71.0%
Sandon McCoy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+1
71.0%
Jemel Jones run for 1 yd to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-2
70.5%
Tyhier Tyler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+37
69.4%
Quinn Maretzki 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.2%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
70.2%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
70.7%
Xavier Arline run for 6 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
70.6%
Daniel Davies punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Robinson at the Army 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
69.8%
Tyrell Robinson run for 3 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-2
70.3%
Sandon McCoy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 34Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+2
69.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q2 10:14
4TH & 7
OWN 36
-4
68.6%
Zach Harding punt for 49 yds , Mark Walker returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
69.9%
Jamale Carothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 10Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+4
70.1%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+1
70.8%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 6
OWN 15
0
71.3%
Daniel Davies punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 23 yds · 4:1272% → 70%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
72.0%
Anthony Adkins run for 2 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+2
72.0%
Anthony Adkins run for 2 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+13
71.6%
Tyhier Tyler run for 13 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
72.4%
Anthony Adkins run for 2 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
72.4%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+1
71.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+38
69.8%
Quinn Maretzki 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1931% → 29%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
68.8%
Xavier Arline run for 6 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-1
68.2%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 27 Xavier Arline fumbled, recovered by Navy Xavier ArlineSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
70.1%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
71.1%
Daniel Davies punt for 50 yds, downed at the Army 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
70.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:5732% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
68.0%
Xavier Arline run for 11 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+52
66.2%
Xavier Arline run for 52 yds to the Army 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
64.6%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Army 1Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
64.5%
Nelson Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 2Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
66.3%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Army 1Similar
Q3 12:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.8%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Army 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
70.1%
Sandon McCoy run for no gain to the Army 1Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+2
69.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Army 3Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+4
68.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the Army 7Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 4
OWN 7
0
68.5%
Zach Harding punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:5733% → 27%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
66.6%
Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Mark WalkerSimilar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-5
67.4%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Kip Frankland) to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+2
68.7%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 13
OWN 42
0
71.6%
Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Mark WalkerSimilar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
72.9%
Daniel Davies punt for 44 yds, downed at the Army 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 38 yds · 0:0071% → 73%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
71.4%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Army 16Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+28
71.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for 28 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
73.6%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-1
73.9%
Ay'Juan Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 46Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+6
72.0%
Brandon Walters run for 6 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
72.7%
Zach Harding punt for 40 yds, downed at the Navy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
72.5%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Navy 8Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+5
72.7%
Xavier Arline run for 5 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+1
72.8%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 14Similar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 4
OWN 14
0
73.8%
Daniel Davies punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:2274% → 75%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
50
+3
74.2%
Tyrell Robinson run for 3 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
74.4%
Jakobi Buchanan run for no gain to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+8
73.5%
Tyhier Tyler run for 8 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
74.5%
Tyhier Tyler run for a loss of 10 yards to the Navy 49 Tyhier Tyler fumbled, recovered by ArmySimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+8
72.8%
Sandon McCoy run for 8 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+5
72.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
75.2%
Zach Harding punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
73.8%
CJ Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 13 CJ Williams fumbled, recovered by Army Jon RhattiganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19TD
6 plays · 13 yds · 3:0279% → 91%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
79.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+6
79.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 6 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
77.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Navy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
79.6%
ARMY Penalty, false start (JB Hunter) to the Navy 7Similar
Q4 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
79.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.4%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-8
89.9%
Chance Warren run for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 21 NAVY Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+4
91.3%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q4 11:02
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+18
91.5%
Daniel Davies punt for 34 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 24 NAVY Penalty, personal foul (-16 Yards) to the Navy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
91.0%
A.J. Howard run for 10 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
91.3%
ARMY Penalty, false start (A.J. Howard) to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+2
90.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+3
90.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+2
90.7%
A.J. Howard run for 2 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 8
OPP 33
0
90.0%
Zach Harding punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22SF
3 plays · -14 yds · 0:335% → 4%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
94.7%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 14Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-14
96.5%
Mark Walker run for a loss of 14 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 23FG
9 plays · -1 yds · 3:0197% → 99%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
97.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+8
97.2%
NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Kevin Brennan) to the Navy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
97.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the Navy 8Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+2
97.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
98.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 9 ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-14
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 2:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 23
+40
99.0%
Quinn Maretzki 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.2%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Mark Walker for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
99.0%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to CJ WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
99.1%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 2:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.1%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to CJ WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-5
99.3%
ARMY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 16
OPP 40
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:02
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)
+11.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:04
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Navy 10
+5.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:54
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 14
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com