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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreARMY score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:21 · Ryan Wright punt for 37 yds, downed at the Army 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:47: Amare Jones run for 50 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +8.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:12: Christian Anderson run for 19 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ARMY win probability +9.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:23: Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 21 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +12.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:38: Merek Glover 26 yd FG GOOD — TULN win probability +6.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 12:26: Cameron Carroll run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 9 — TULN win probability +5.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
- Q1 15:00ARMY 4th & 5 at ARMY 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snapGo for it40.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.5%average punt
- Q1 8:49ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 37, down 7Close callPunted · 38.2% before the snapGo for it38.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:06TULN 4th & 6 at TULN 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snapGo for it62.2%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.4%average punt
- Q1 5:21ARMY 4th & 6 at TULN 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.2%40% to convertField goal36.9%−0.328% to makePunt37.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 33, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt30.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:21TULN 4th & 2 at TULN 22, up 8Close callPunted · 65.6% before the snapGo for it65.4%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:48ARMY 4th & 1 at TULN 39, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.9%70% to convertField goal29.2%−2.736% to makePunt29.4%−2.6average punt
- Q2 4:12TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 32, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snapGo for it61.6%−0.352% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.9%average punt
- Q2 1:48ARMY 4th & 7 at ARMY 45, down 2Close callPunted · 38.4% before the snapGo for it37.8%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:30TULN 4th & 2 at TULN 23, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snapGo for it59.8%−0.156% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.9%average punt
- Q2 0:30ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 41, down 2Close callPunted · 39.0% before the snapGo for it38.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.5%−0.3average punt
- Q3 5:38TULN 4th & 6 at ARMY 9, up 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snapGo for it78.5%−0.533% to convertField goalTheir call79.0%89% to makePunt70.2%−8.8average punt
- Q4 15:00ARMY 4th & 8 at TULN 10, down 12Close callWent for it · 14.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.9%−0.828% to convertField goal14.7%88% to makePunt7.7%−7.0average punt
- Q4 12:26TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 37, up 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt89.7%−2.0average punt
- Q4 12:26TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 42, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snapGo for it89.6%−1.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.0%average punt
- Q4 5:22ARMY 4th & 11 at ARMY 19, down 12Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.1%−<0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ARMY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 8:55TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.4%97% to makeGo for two61.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:47TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.5%97% to makeGo for two69.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:25ARMY Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call34.0%97% to makeGo for two33.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:12ARMY Touchdown, down 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick39.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call38.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:23TULN Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.6%97% to makeGo for two76.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:26TULN Touchdown, up 18 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%−0.497% to makeGo for two98.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARMYDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2TD11 plays · 53 yds · 4:4856% → 58%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
55.8%
Stephon Huderson run for 7 yds to the Army 46 Stephon Huderson fumbled,Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-1
55.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 36Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+14
55.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 14 yds to the Army 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
58.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 4 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 8:49
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+7
58.1%
Zach Harding punt for 43 yds , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 7 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
58.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 10 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
59.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 9 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+6
58.6%
Ryan Wright punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 19 , Tyrell Robinson returns for 6 yds to the Army 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5DOWNS8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 5:21
4TH & 6
OPP 43
-7
59.3%
Christian Anderson run for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard line Christian Anderson fumbled, recovered by Army Tyrell Robinson , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6TD1 play · 50 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:2234% → 37%
TULNDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
ARMYDrive 9TD8 plays · 59 yds · 4:3635% → 46%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
54.2%
Christian Anderson run for 19 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0844% → 42%
TULNDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:1060% → 58%
ARMYDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 0:4241% → 40%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3761% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Amare Jones for 6 yds to the Tulan 31Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
63.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Mykel Jones for 8 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+3
63.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 3 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+26
63.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 26 yds to the Army 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
64.4%
[Shotgun], Carroll,C. rush over right guard for 1 yard to the ARMY10 (Cunningham, C.), PENALTY TULANE holding (Shafter,T.) 10 yards to the ARMY21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 20
OPP 21
+21
77.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 21 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16INT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
TULNDrive 17FG9 plays · 45 yds · 3:2778% → 84%
Q3 9:05
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+16
77.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 16 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
78.0%
[Shotgun], Pratt,M. pass incomplete, PENALTY TULANE holding (Shafter,T.) 10 yards to the ARMY49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+13
77.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Phat Watts for 13 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+23
78.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jacob Robertson Jr. for 23 yds to the Army 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
78.3%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Duece Watts, broken up by Javhari BourdeauSimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
78.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Christian Daniels for 4 yds to the Army 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18DOWNS19 plays · 62 yds · 5:3817% → 13%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 10
-3
86.7%
Tyson Riley pass complete to Brandon Walters for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19PUNT11 plays · 29 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 12:26
2ND & 14
OWN 9
+10
91.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 10 yds to the Tulan 19Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+9
91.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 9 yds to the Tulan 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+5
91.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 5 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+2
92.7%
Cameron Carroll run for 2 yds to the Tulan 45 TULANE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-3
92.4%
Michael Pratt sacked by Amadeo West for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20DOWNS5 plays · -3 yds · 1:336% → 4%
Q4 6:55
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-4
94.7%
Christian Anderson sacked by Patrick Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21TD2 plays · 17 yds · 0:5296% → 99%
ARMYDrive 23INT7 plays · 28 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
99.9%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Brandon Walters for 4 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+12
99.9%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Michael Roberts for 12 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Christian Anderson pass intercepted Willie Langham return for no gain to the Tulan 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24Uncategorized8 plays · 43 yds · 0:11100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:23
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 21 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
+12.6
TD · Q2 4:12
Christian Anderson run for 19 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-9.5
TD · Q1 0:47
Amare Jones run for 50 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
+8.5