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UTSA

UTSA 23 at Southern Miss 20

USM
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2020 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGSAFETYTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:19 · Lucas Dean punt for 55 yds, downed at the SoMis 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Pregame prior−4.5Home team on offense−8.5Garbage-time factor−3.0Score differential−4.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:48: Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 6 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +11.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:18: Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 13 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +14.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:19: Sincere McCormick run for 69 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +15.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:30: Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +12.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:19: Tate Whatley pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 51 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +20.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 8 at USM 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:33UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:27USM 4th & 6 at UTSA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:10USM 4th & 5 at UTSA 5, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    34.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:19UTSA 4th & 6 at USM 39, down 1
    Close callPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−0.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:43USM 4th & 2 at USM 12, up 1
    Close callPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:32UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 43, down 1
    Close callPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:30USM 4th & 7 at USM 28, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:36UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 45, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:34USM 4th & 10 at UTSA 10, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−4.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00UTSA 4th & 1 at USM 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    75.3%−4.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−3.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:19UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 29, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:36USM 4th & 26 at USM 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−4.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 5:48UTSA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:18USM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:19UTSA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:30UTSA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:19USM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
25.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
25.7%
Tate Whatley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-1
25.7%
Tate Whatley sacked by Trumane Bell II for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
25.7%
Griffin Fleming punt for 29 yds, downed at the TexSA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
26.3%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-4
26.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brennon Dingle for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 40Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 14
OWN 40
0
26.4%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 14
OWN 40
0
26.5%
Lucas Dean punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 4:5927% → 30%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
27.0%
Tate Whatley run for 3 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+7
27.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+24
27.0%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 24 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
27.2%
WHATLEY, Tate sideline pass complete to JONES, Tim for 3 yards to the UTSA49, out-of-bounds (WILEY, Charles), PENALTY UTSA offside defense (DANTZLER, L.) 5 yards to the UTSA47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+2
27.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-1
27.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 46Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+22
27.2%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 22 yds to the TexSA 24 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
27.3%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 8 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 2
OPP 16
0
27.3%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-4
27.2%
Tate Whatley run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
30.3%
Briggs Bourgeois 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
30.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-3
30.4%
Frank Harris pass intercepted Malik Shorts return for 3 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
31.6%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Antoine RobinsonSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
31.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+18
31.5%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 18 yds to the TexSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
31.8%
Dee Baker run for no gain to the TexSA 15Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+10
31.8%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 4 yds to the TexSA 11 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (6 Yards) to the TexSA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
31.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 10Similar
Q1 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
31.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the TexSA 9Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
31.8%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 5 yds to the TexSA 4Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
31.5%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Kevin Perkins for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 5Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
31.1%
Briggs Bourgeois run for no gain to the TexSA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:4166% → 65%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
33.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 9Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+1
33.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 10Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+6
34.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 6 yds to the TexSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
33.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the TexSA 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+3
34.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 24
-1
34.7%
Brenden Brady run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 23Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 23
+4
35.5%
Lucas Dean punt for 52 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7SF
4 plays · -29 yds · 1:1935% → 35%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
35.2%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Dee BakerSimilar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-1
35.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 11
OWN 28
-14
34.3%
WHATLEY, Tate sideline pass complete to BROWNLEE, Jason for 16 yards to the USM44, PENALTY USM pass interference (ROBINSON, A.) 14 yards to the USM14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 25
OWN 14
0
35.0%
Tate Whatley sacked by Jamal Ligon for a loss of 12 yards for a SAFETY Tate Whatley fumbled, recovered by SoMis , return for 0 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 12:19
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+5
33.8%
Brenden Brady run for 5 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
34.0%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
34.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
34.2%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
35.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 35 yds, downed at the SoMis 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
36.6%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the SoMis 5 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+1
36.5%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the SoMis 6Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+6
35.8%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 6 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 2
OWN 12
0
35.4%
Griffin Fleming punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10TD
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:4565% → 75%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
35.1%
Frank Harris run for 4 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
35.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 7 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
35.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
34.3%
McCORMICK, S. rush up middle for 4 yards to the USM30 (SHORTS, Malik), PENALTY USM offside defense (BARNES, Tyler) 5 yards to the USM29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+5
34.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
34.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 9
OPP 23
-1
34.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brennon Dingle for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+18
37.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 18 yds to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
25.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 6 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3028% → 47%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+21
28.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, personal foul (Antonio Parks) to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
30.4%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Tim Jones, broken up by Clarence HicksSimilar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
30.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+10
30.1%
WHATLEY, Tate RO pass incomplete to BROWNLEE, Jason, QB hurry by BELL, Trumane, PENALTY UTSA holding 10 yards to the UTSA39, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
31.0%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Antoine RobinsonSimilar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
30.8%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 8 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+18
30.7%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 18 yds to the TexSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
46.9%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 13 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:4658% → 58%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
41.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 5 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
40.9%
Frank Harris run for no gain to the TexSA 35Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
42.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 7 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+1
40.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+2
42.3%
Lucas Dean punt for 54 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 2 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
45.2%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:4156% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
43.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
43.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 5 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
43.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
27.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 69 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15INT
6 plays · 43 yds · 0:0031% → 34%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
30.7%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 30 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
34.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 12 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
35.2%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
35.1%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 1 yd to the TexSA 32Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 9
OPP 32
-12
33.5%
Tate Whatley pass intercepted Rashad Wisdom return for 27 yds to the SoMis 5 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Gerquan Scott) to the SoMis 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16TD
9 plays · 48 yds · 4:3574% → 87%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
26.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
26.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 3 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+11
26.5%
Brenden Brady run for 11 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
25.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 9 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+6
25.6%
Frank Harris run for 6 yds to the SoMis 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
25.6%
Brenden Brady run for 6 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+9
25.6%
Brenden Brady run for 9 yds to the SoMis 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.6%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the SoMis 1Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.9%
Dee Baker run for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
19.0%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Grayson GunterSimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
18.1%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Tim Jones, broken up by Charles WileySimilar
Q3 6:30
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
17.9%
Griffin Fleming punt for 44 yds, downed at the TexSA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
14.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 17 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
13.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 46Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-1
13.1%
Brenden Brady run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 45Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
13.4%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
14.6%
Lucas Dean punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19FG
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:5817% → 20%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
17.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 9 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+24
17.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 24 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
18.3%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 16 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+31
19.3%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 31 yds to the TexSA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
20.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 10Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
20.7%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q3 3:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
18.9%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Darius MaberrySimilar
Q3 0:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
19.7%
Briggs Bourgeois 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:3480% → 80%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
19.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 10 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
18.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 9 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+1
17.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
17.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+4
17.9%
Kaedric Cobbs run for 4 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+4
18.0%
Frank Harris run for 4 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
19.9%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the SoMis 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 0:5318% → 39%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
18.2%
Tate Whatley run for 6 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
19.1%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Demarcus JonesSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+51
39.3%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 51 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0069% → 66%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
31.4%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 22Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+7
31.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
31.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Brennon DingleSimilar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
34.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 55 yds, downed at the SoMis 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
14 plays · 23 yds · 4:0737% → 33%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
36.5%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 4 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
36.4%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+13
34.5%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 13 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
37.3%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Tim Jones, broken up by Trevor HarmansonSimilar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+10
37.0%
Kevin Perkins run for 10 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
40.2%
Tate Whatley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
38.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Khalique Washington) to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+10
37.1%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 10 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+7
40.0%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 7 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
42.2%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 3 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
42.1%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Cole CavalloSimilar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-19
41.2%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tate Whatley for a loss of 19 yards to the SoMis 39Similar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 26
OWN 39
+10
33.3%
Griffin Fleming punt for 41 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 10 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24END OF GAME
11 plays · 26 yds · 2:3774% → 88%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
26.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 8 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+1
23.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 39Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+9
21.4%
Frank Harris run for 9 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
21.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 8
50
+7
17.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 7 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+1
12.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
11.8%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-1
12.1%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:19
Tate Whatley pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 51 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
+20.3
TD · Q3 13:19
Sincere McCormick run for 69 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
-15.9
TD · Q2 2:18
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 13 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com