2020 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2020 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:33 · Brayden Narveson 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:19: Cory Munson kickoff for 65 yds , EJ Wilson Jr. return for 100 yds for a TD (Chase Gabriel PAT MISSED) — FIU win probability +8.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:43: Tyrrell Pigrome run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +13.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- FUMBLE · Q3 9:25: Max Bortenschlager run for no gain Max Bortenschlager fumbled, forced by DeAngelo Malone, recovered by WKent Roger Cray , return for 19 yds — WKU win probability +11.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:08: Max Bortenschlager pass intercepted for a TD Eli Brown return for 22 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +8.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:54: Gaej Walker run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +7.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10FIU made the numbers' call on 10 of 14
- Q1 15:00WKU 4th & 13 at WKU 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snapGo for it69.2%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.3%average punt
- Q1 8:40WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snapGo for it66.0%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.1%average punt
- Q1 6:38FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 46, up 7Close callPunted · 35.3% before the snapGo for it35.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.4%−0.2average punt
- Q1 4:46WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 34, down 7Close callPunted · 63.9% before the snapGo for it64.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.8%−0.3average punt
- Q2 15:00FIU 4th & 14 at FIU 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snapGo for it37.5%−1.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.6%average punt
- Q2 10:33WKU 4th & 6 at FIU 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snapGo for it58.7%−0.238% to convertField goalTheir call58.9%74% to makePunt53.6%−5.3average punt
- Q2 10:19WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snapGo for it53.7%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.9%average punt
- Q2 8:18FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 33, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snapGo for it44.3%−0.739% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.9%average punt
- Q2 7:00WKU 4th & 8 at WKU 47, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snapGo for it51.1%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.3%average punt
- Q2 5:58FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 17, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snapGo for it47.3%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.5%average punt
- Q2 0:24FIU 4th & 9 at WKU 47, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snapGo for it42.9%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.0%average punt
- Q3 15:00FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 30, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snapGo for it42.0%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.4%average punt
- Q3 13:24WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 36, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snapGo for it56.5%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.5%average punt
- Q3 9:02FIU 4th & 4 at FIU 33, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snapGo for it17.9%−0.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.3%average punt
- Q3 7:36WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 11, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snapGo for it81.5%−2.030% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.4%average punt
- Q3 5:07FIU 4th & 14 at FIU 30, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snapGo for it14.5%−1.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.0%average punt
- Q3 4:22WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 32, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snapGo for it84.0%−1.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.1%average punt
- Q4 15:00FIU 4th & 8 at WKU 33, down 11Close callWent for it · 14.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.5%−0.134% to convertField goal14.6%49% to makePunt13.9%−0.7average punt
- Q4 13:36FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 36, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 12:52WKU 4th & 8 at FIU 34, up 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.6%34% to convertField goal96.5%−<0.147% to makePunt96.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 11:50FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 44, down 18Close callWent for it · 3.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.4%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.8%average punt
- Q4 9:23FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 40, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.5%average punt
- Q4 9:23FIU 4th & 2 at WKU 33, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%57% to convertField goal0.5%−<0.149% to makePunt0.4%−0.2average punt
- Q4 0:18FIU 4th & 1 at WKU 1, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%59% to convertField goal0.4%−0.294% to makePunt0.1%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 8:40FIU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.1%97% to makeGo for two33.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:43WKU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.2%97% to makeGo for two57.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:08WKU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.3%97% to makeGo for two82.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:54WKU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%97% to makeGo for two96.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:23WKU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:18FIU Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick1.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call1.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWKUDrive 1PUNT8 plays · -7 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+5
71.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 5 yds to the WKent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 9
0
71.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley, broken up by Dimitry PropheteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 9
+12
71.0%
John Haggerty punt for 55 yds , Bryce Singleton returns for 12 yds to the FlaIn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2TD9 plays · 52 yds · 3:3630% → 33%
Q1 12:16
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+8
70.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 8 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+1
70.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D'vonte Price for 1 yd to the WKent 28Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+28
67.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to JJ Holloman for 28 yds for a TD (Chase Gabriel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 33 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
WKUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q1 4:46
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+9
65.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 9 yds to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr., broken up by Josh TurnerSimilar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 6 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
65.4%
John Haggerty punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Bryce Singleton at the FlaIn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5936% → 37%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
63.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Bryce Singleton, broken up by Juwuan JonesSimilar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-8
63.6%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Jeremy Darvin for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaIn 15Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 20
0
63.3%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 56 yds , Mitchell Tinsley returns for no gain to the WKent 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7FG9 plays · 55 yds · 3:4162% → 65%
Q2 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+15
62.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 15 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
63.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Terez Traynor for 16 yds to the FlaIn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
63.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Joshua Simon for 9 yds to the FlaIn 34Similar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Terez Traynor, broken up by Dorian HallSimilar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+4
63.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 4 yds to the FlaIn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q2 10:19
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
55.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Jakairi Moses for 1 yd to the WKent 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
WKUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-6
53.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Kane Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the WKent 39Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+8
52.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Jakairi Moses for 8 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q2 7:00
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
52.5%
John Haggerty punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Rishard Dames at the FlaIn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
WKUDrive 13TD9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1150% → 63%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
50.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Malachi Corley for 14 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
51.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 13 yds to the FlaIn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
52.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Terez Traynor for 8 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
53.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Malachi Corley for 2 yds to the FlaIn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 0:1444% → 43%
WKUDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 30
-2
59.2%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 38 yds , Mitchell Tinsley returns for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18FUMBLE TD6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3443% → 32%
Q3 11:59
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+12
57.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 12 yds to the FlaIn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+19
68.2%
Max Bortenschlager run for no gain Max Bortenschlager fumbled, forced by DeAngelo Malone, recovered by WKent Roger Cray , return for 19 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-22
81.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass intercepted for a TD Eli Brown return for 22 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 9:02
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
82.7%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Tinsley at the WKent 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 7:36
3RD & 4
OWN 16
-5
82.6%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Cole Spencer) to the WKent 11Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
82.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Malachi Corley, broken up by Rishard DamesSimilar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
81.8%
John Haggerty punt for 55 yds , Bryce Singleton returns for no gain to the FlaIn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5518% → 15%
Q3 6:02
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
82.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Kris Mitchell, broken up by Roger CraySimilar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-10
83.0%
BORTENSCHLAGER pass complete to FAIRWEATHER, R for 63 yards to the WKU0, clock 05:07, PENALTY FIU holding (FINAU, Sione) 10 yards to the FIU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 17
OWN 27
+3
84.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D'vonte Price for 3 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
84.8%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Tinsley at the WKent 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
85.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Joshua Simon for 11 yds to the WKent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-8
85.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Davon Strickland for a loss of 8 yards to the WKent 21Similar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+23
83.7%
John Haggerty punt for 56 yds , Rishard Dames returns for 23 yds to the FlaIn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 24DOWNS7 plays · 24 yds · 2:2915% → 15%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
50
+15
82.9%
NORTON, Stone pass incomplete to HOLLOMAN, JJ, PENALTY WKU pass interference (LANE, X.) 15 yards to the WKU35, 1ST DOWN FIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 33
-6
85.4%
Stone Norton run for a loss of 6 yards to the WKent 41 Stone Norton fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Stone NortonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25TD4 plays · 59 yds · 0:5689% → 97%
FIUDrive 26DOWNS6 plays · 8 yds · 0:135% → 4%
WKUDrive 27DOWNS4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
FIUDrive 28DOWNS4 plays · 2 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
96.5%
Stone Norton pass incomplete to Rivaldo Fairweather, broken up by Dionté RuffinSimilar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
96.5%
Stone Norton pass incomplete to Nate Jefferson, broken up by Jeremy DarvinSimilar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+2
96.6%
Stone Norton pass complete to D'vonte Price for 2 yds to the FlaIn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 29TD4 plays · 44 yds · 1:2798% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 30TD24 plays · 75 yds · 9:050% → 1%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.7%
Kaylan Wiggins pass complete to Maleek Williams for 2 yds to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
99.7%
Kaylan Wiggins pass complete to Kameren Williams for 7 yds to the FlaIn 34Similar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Kaylan Wiggins pass incomplete to Kris Mitchell, broken up by Trae MeadowsSimilar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+19
99.7%
Kaylan Wiggins pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 19 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.6%
Kaylan Wiggins pass incomplete to Kris Mitchell, broken up by Roger CraySimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
99.6%
Kaylan Wiggins pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 2 yds to the WKent 26Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
99.6%
Kaylan Wiggins pass incomplete to Bryce Singleton, broken up by Roger CraySimilar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+9
99.6%
Kaylan Wiggins pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 9 yds to the WKent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
99.5%
WIGGINS, Kaylan pass incomplete to MITCHELL, Kris, PENALTY WKU pass interference (RUFFIN, D.) 6 yards to the WKU2, 1ST DOWN FIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Kaylan Wiggins run for 1 yd for a TD FLORIDA INTL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the WKent 8 (K. Wiggins Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 31END OF GAME2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:43
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+13.1
FUMBLE · Q3 9:25
Max Bortenschlager run for no gain Max Bortenschlager fumbled, forced by DeAngelo Malone, recovered by WKent Roger Cray , return for 19 yds
+11.9
TD · Q3 9:08
Max Bortenschlager pass intercepted for a TD Eli Brown return for 22 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+8.5