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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreUTEP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:05 · Joshua Sloan punt for 63 yds, downed at the TexSA 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:35: Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 35 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +11.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:58: Deion Hankins run for 1 yd for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +11.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:19: Frank Harris run for 35 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +13.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:26: Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 15 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +11.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:54: Frank Harris run for 4 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +10.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UTEP made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 11:49UTSA 4th & 13 at UTEP 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snapGo for it66.5%−0.121% to convertField goalTheir call66.6%51% to makePunt66.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:49UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 44, down 3Close callPunted · 33.1% before the snapGo for it33.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:00UTEP 4th & 3 at UTSA 4, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 37.9% before the snapGo for it38.1%45% to convertField goalTheir call37.7%−0.593% to makePunt34.1%−4.1average punt
- Q2 12:44UTEP 4th & 3 at UTEP 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snapGo for it33.0%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.2%average punt
- Q2 10:30UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 35, up 3Close callPunted · 65.2% before the snapGo for it65.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.1%−0.5average punt
- Q3 15:00UTEP 4th & 7 at midfield, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snapGo for it34.1%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.4%average punt
- Q3 7:19UTSA 4th & 2 at UTEP 21, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.2%57% to convertField goal80.4%−0.774% to makePunt75.5%−5.7average punt
- Q3 2:54UTEP 4th & 23 at UTEP 18, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it4.7%−2.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q4 11:05UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 26, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UTEP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 2:22UTEP Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.9%97% to makeGo for two36.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:44UTSA Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.7%97% to makeGo for two66.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:32UTEP Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.3%97% to makeGo for two43.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:35UTSA Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.1%97% to makeGo for two66.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:58UTEP Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.8%97% to makeGo for two44.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:19UTSA Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.0%97% to makeGo for two66.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:26UTSA Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.7%97% to makeGo for two81.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:54UTSA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.9%97% to makeGo for two91.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:05UTSA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%−0.197% to makeGo for two98.9%45% to convert
- Q4 3:16UTSA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTSADrive 1FG12 plays · 43 yds · 3:1173% → 73%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
73.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Leroy Watson for 10 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+5
73.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 5 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
73.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Leroy Watson for 5 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
73.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Leroy Watson for 26 yds to the UTEP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 27
-5
73.1%
Frank Harris sacked by Justin Prince for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+10
72.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 10 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3FUMBLE10 plays · 90 yds · 0:0072% → 73%
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+4
72.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 4 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+8
72.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 8 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+19
72.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 19 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
72.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 8 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
72.9%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari Franklin, broken up by Praise AmaewhuleSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
72.7%
UTEP Penalty, offside defense (Broderick Harrell) to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+45
73.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 45 yds Zakhari Franklin fumbled, forced by Duron Lowe, recovered by UTEP Broderick HarrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:4128% → 32%
Q1 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
72.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+6
72.4%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 6 yds to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
67.6%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 52 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5FUMBLE2 plays · -12 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
68.4%
Team run for no gain to the TexSA 11 Team fumbled, recovered by UTEP Stephen ForesterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6MISSED FG5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1033% → 33%
Q1 0:04
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+4
67.3%
BAECHLE, Gavin field goal attempt from 25 MISSED - wide right,, clock 00:04, PENALTY UTSA roughing the kicker (MAYFIELD, Corey) 4 yards to the UTSA4, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:1667% → 73%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+21
69.0%
Brenden Brady run for 6 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, player disqualification (Duron Lowe) to the UTEP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+18
69.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 18 yds to the UTEP 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 3 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to James Tupou for 1 yd to the UTEP 26Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
70.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 3 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
71.2%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Deion Hankins for 3 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
UTEPDrive 10TD14 plays · 74 yds · 4:5530% → 45%
Q2 8:27
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+10
69.8%
HARDISON, Gavin sideline pass incomplete to COWING, Jacob, PENALTY UTSA holding (MAYFIELD, Corey) 10 yards to the UTEP43, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 3
50
+22
68.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 22 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
67.2%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Rashad Wisdom) to the TexSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+9
67.0%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 9 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11TD7 plays · 71 yds · 1:5759% → 73%
Q2 3:32
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+11
59.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 11 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+16
61.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 16 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
73.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 35 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12TD3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3736% → 48%
UTSADrive 13TD4 plays · 70 yds · 0:3957% → 73%
UTEPDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+11
69.2%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 11 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
66.7%
Gavin Hardison run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 44 Gavin Hardison fumbled, recovered by UTEP Gavin HardisonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+6
68.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:0570% → 84%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
70.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 19 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
72.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Leroy Watson for 5 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UTEP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
83.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 15 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17FUMBLE4 plays · 24 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
81.6%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 20Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+20
82.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 20 yds Walter Dawn Jr. fumbled, forced by Rashad Wisdom, recovered by TexSA Antonio Parks , return for 2 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18TD9 plays · 44 yds · 4:2584% → 94%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
84.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 6 yds to the UTEP 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 0:007% → 6%
UTSADrive 20TD8 plays · 59 yds · 4:2495% → 99%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+11
95.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Julon Williams for 11 yds to the UTEP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
UTSADrive 22TD11 plays · 89 yds · 6:0799% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23FUMBLE5 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
100.0%
BROWNHOLTZ, C. crossing pass complete to FRYAR, Zach for 9 yards to the UTEP19 (TAYLOR, Donyai), PENALTY UTEP ineligible downfield on pass (FRYAR, Zach) 5 yards to the UTEP5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+10
100.0%
Calvin Brownholtz pass complete to Miles Banks for 10 yds to the UTEP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
100.0%
Calvin Brownholtz sacked by DeQuarius Henry for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 12 Calvin Brownholtz fumbled, recovered by TexSA Christian Clayton , return for 0 yards , return for 10 yds to the UTEP 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:19
Frank Harris run for 35 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
+13.2
TD · Q2 1:35
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 35 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q2 0:58
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)
-11.7