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USM

Southern Miss 7 at Western Kentucky 10

WKU
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:46 · Griffin Fleming punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Tinsley at the WKent 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+17.0+8.50−8.5−17.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior+11.5Home team on offense+4.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score differential+1.1Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 10:30: Kevin Perkins run for 6 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +25.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:30: Briggs Bourgeois kickoff for 63 yds — WKU win probability +8.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:01: Timeout SOUTHERN MISS, clock 03:01 — WKU win probability +11.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:49: Jakairi Moses run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 11 — WKU win probability +9.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:44: Trey Lowe run for 4 yds to the WKent 46 — USM win probability +7.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 3 at WKU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:10USM 4th & 1 at USM 32, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:04WKU 4th & 1 at USM 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.3%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00WKU 4th & 1 at USM 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    72.1%−0.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:54WKU 4th & 6 at USM 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:46USM 4th & 14 at USM 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:01WKU 4th & 30 at WKU 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−2.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:40USM 4th & 8 at WKU 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:40WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 30, up 10
    Close callPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:32USM 4th & 2 at USM 47, down 10
    Close callPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:38USM 4th & 15 at USM 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:39WKU 4th & 4 at USM 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    78.7%−1.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    79.3%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:31USM 4th & 15 at USM 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−3.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:16WKU 4th & 15 at USM 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    82.4%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:30WKU 4th & 1 at USM 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.3%−5.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−19.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:01USM 4th & 19 at WKU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:53WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−8.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:44USM 4th & 7 at WKU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.7%−5.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USM made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 9:07WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 10:30USM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
66.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 19 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
66.2%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
66.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+5
66.2%
LOWE, Trey pass incomplete to JONES, Tim, PENALTY WKU offside (JONES, J.) 5 yards to the WKU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
66.2%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
66.2%
Griffin Fleming punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 91 yds · 4:2066% → 68%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
66.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Xavier Lane, broken up by Averie HabasSimilar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-1
66.1%
Gaej Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 8Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+18
66.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 18 yds to the WKent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
66.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 11 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
66.1%
Gaej Walker run for 9 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
66.3%
Gaej Walker run for 3 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+47
66.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 47 yds to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
66.3%
Gaej Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 5Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
68.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 5 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:5032% → 32%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
67.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
67.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+1
67.5%
Trey Lowe run for 1 yd to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
68.1%
Griffin Fleming punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4FG
18 plays · 65 yds · 9:1068% → 71%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
68.1%
Gaej Walker run for 6 yds to the WKent 35Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+5
68.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 5 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
68.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 9 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
68.7%
Gaej Walker run for no gain to the WKent 49Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+6
68.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 6 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
68.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley, broken up by Ky'el HembySimilar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
68.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 4 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+5
68.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 5 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
68.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 2 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
68.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Garland LaFrance for 8 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+1
68.9%
Jakairi Moses run for 1 yd to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
68.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+5
69.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 5 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
70.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Joshua Simon for 12 yds to the SoMis 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
70.8%
Gaej Walker run for 2 yds to the SoMis 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
70.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Gaej WalkerSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
70.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr., broken up by Natrone BrooksSimilar
Q2 12:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
71.0%
Brayden Narveson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
72.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-3
72.1%
Trey Lowe sacked by DeAngelo Malone for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 22 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 11
OWN 22
-3
72.7%
Trey Lowe sacked by Kyle Bailey for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 19Similar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 14
OWN 19
0
73.0%
Griffin Fleming punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Tinsley at the WKent 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
72.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 43 Tyrrell Pigrome fumbled, recovered by WKent Tyrrell Pigrome for a 1ST down , return for 19 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
72.9%
Jakairi Moses run for 7 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 3
OPP 36
-1
72.9%
Jakairi Moses run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 4
OPP 37
-9
72.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Camron Harrell for a loss of 9 yards to the WKent 37 Tyrrell Pigrome fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 30
OWN 37
0
70.7%
John Haggerty punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7MISSED FG
7 plays · 66 yds · 3:3226% → 26%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
73.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 14 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+23
73.8%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 23 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+27
72.5%
Trey Lowe run for 27 yds to the WKent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
71.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+1
71.4%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the WKent 26Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+2
72.3%
Kevin Perkins run for 2 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+42
74.3%
Briggs Bourgeois 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
74.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
74.1%
Gaej Walker run for 6 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
73.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Gaej WalkerSimilar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+8
72.9%
John Haggerty punt for 52 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 8 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:0525% → 24%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
75.5%
Dee Baker run for 8 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 2
OWN 34
-3
74.4%
Dee Baker run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 31 Dee Baker fumbled, forced by Antwon Kincade,Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+8
78.0%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 8 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
77.2%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason Brownlee, broken up by Trae MeadowsSimilar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
77.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+4
76.9%
Trey Lowe run for 4 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
76.4%
Griffin Fleming punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Tinsley at the WKent 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10END OF HALF
11 plays · 47 yds · 1:2179% → 80%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
79.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 3 yds to the WKent 14Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+5
78.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 5 yds to the WKent 19Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+5
77.7%
Gaej Walker run for 5 yds to the WKent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
78.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Gaej WalkerSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
78.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 9 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+7
78.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Joshua Simon for 7 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
79.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Xavier LaneSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+18
79.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 18 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
80.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
80.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Xavier LaneSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.9%
Gaej Walker run for 4 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
76.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Joshua Simon for 3 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
75.8%
John Haggerty punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
77.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+4
77.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
77.6%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
77.8%
Trey Lowe sacked by Ricky Barber for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 17Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 15
OWN 17
0
78.8%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 15
OWN 17
0
79.3%
Griffin Fleming punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Tinsley at the WKent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
80.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 9 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
80.3%
Gaej Walker run for 4 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
80.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Joshua Simon for 4 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-4
80.5%
Jakairi Moses run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+6
79.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Jakairi Moses for 6 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+3
78.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 3 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
78.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 39Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+2
78.6%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 2 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-8
79.1%
Trey Lowe sacked by Ricky Barber for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
81.0%
Griffin Fleming punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Tinsley at the WKent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:1582% → 81%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
81.5%
Jakairi Moses run for 21 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
82.8%
Jakairi Moses run for 5 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
82.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Joshua Simon for 4 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
82.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 3 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
82.9%
Jakairi Moses run for 2 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+1
83.7%
Jakairi Moses run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-8
83.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Zach Portlock for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
80.6%
John Haggerty punt for 32 yds, downed at the SoMis 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 6:1418% → 41%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
81.9%
Trey Lowe run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 8Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+1
82.4%
Trey Lowe run for 1 yd to the SoMis 9Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+16
83.3%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Kevin Perkins for 16 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
83.1%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Tim Jones for 7 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
82.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 6 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
81.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+30
81.9%
Kevin Perkins run for 15 yds to the WESTERNKY 42 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kyle Bailey) to the WKent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
78.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+11
78.9%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Tim Jones for 11 yds to the WKent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
78.9%
Kevin Perkins run for 7 yds to the WKent 6Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.1%
Kevin Perkins run for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
58.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 6 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17DOWNS
11 plays · 53 yds · 0:0072% → 73%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
71.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 11 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
73.0%
PIGROME, T. pass incomplete to BURT JR, C., PENALTY USM pass interference (HARRELL, Camron) 15 yards to the USM49, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
75.5%
Jakairi Moses run for 1 yd to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-5
75.3%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Mason Brooks) to the WKent 47Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 14
OWN 47
+6
72.6%
Jakairi Moses run for 6 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+16
73.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 16 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
76.6%
Malik Staples run for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-3
76.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Eriq Kitchen for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+9
74.5%
Malik Staples run for 9 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 1
OPP 22
0
73.2%
Malik Staples run for no gain to the SoMis 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:3833% → 27%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
67.5%
Trey Lowe run for 7 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+31
64.6%
Kevin Perkins run for 31 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
60.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the WKent 39Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-10
60.3%
Trey Lowe sacked by DeAngelo Malone for a loss of 10 yards to the WKent 49Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 19
OPP 49
0
71.3%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Tim Jones, broken up by Dionté RuffinSimilar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 19
OPP 49
0
73.2%
Griffin Fleming punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Tinsley at the WKent 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:5683% → 87%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
82.7%
Jakairi Moses run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 11Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 12
OWN 11
-1
86.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 10Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+3
85.2%
Jakairi Moses run for 3 yds to the WKent 13Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 10
OWN 13
+12
87.3%
John Haggerty punt for 49 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0020% → 16%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
50
+4
79.9%
Trey Lowe run for 4 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-1
78.8%
Trey Lowe sacked by Juwuan Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 47Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
80.6%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Cole CavalloSimilar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
83.7%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Cole CavalloSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:30
Kevin Perkins run for 6 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
-25.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+16.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:01
Timeout SOUTHERN MISS, clock 03:01
+11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com