Try the model
MTSU

Middle Tennessee 14 at Marshall 42

MRSH
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:15 · Robert LeFevre punt for 40 yds , Reed Blankenship returns for no gain to the MTnSt 7 Reed Blankenship fumbled, forced by Micah Abraham, recovered by Marsh Joshua Bowers
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior+39.5Home team on offense+0.2Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:29: Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 4 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 17%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:32: Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 17 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +4.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:32: Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 28 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +4.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:51: Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:40: Sheldon Evans run for 26 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +4.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 8MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00MRSH 4th & 14 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:20MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:15MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:18MTSU 4th & 13 at MTSU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:23MRSH 4th & 5 at MTSU 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    91.3%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:10MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00MRSH 4th & 1 at MTSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.2%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:29MRSH 4th & 3 at MRSH 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:03MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:32MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 30, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:19MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 34, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:56MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:40MTSU 4th & 5 at MRSH 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00MTSU 4th & 5 at MRSH 45, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:34MRSH 4th & 2 at MTSU 22, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:34MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:26MRSH 4th & 1 at MTSU 48, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:18MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:29MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:08MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:32MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:32MRSH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:51MTSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:40MRSH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:48MRSH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
91.7%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd to the Marsh 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
91.7%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Corey Gammage, broken up by Decorian PattersonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+10
91.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 10 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
91.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 4 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
91.7%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+10
91.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 10 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
91.7%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-4
91.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
50
0
91.7%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 14
50
0
91.7%
Robert LeFevre punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
90.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 6 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 4
OWN 19
0
90.7%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+2
90.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 2 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 2
OWN 21
+3
90.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 52 yds , Artie Henry returns for 3 yds to the Marsh 24 MARSHALL Penalty, illegal block (Sheldon Evans) to the Marsh 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0090% → 91%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
90.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Artie Henry for 4 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+15
90.4%
WELLS, Grant pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Willie, QB hurry by BUTLER, J., PENALTY MT roughing passer (BUTLER, J.) 15 yards to the MAR39, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
90.5%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+4
90.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Brenden Knox for 4 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+2
90.6%
Grant Wells run for 2 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
90.5%
Robert LeFevre punt for 40 yds , Reed Blankenship returns for no gain to the MTnSt 7 Reed Blankenship fumbled, forced by Micah Abraham, recovered by Marsh Joshua BowersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:4490% → 91%
Q1 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
90.1%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 3Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
90.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 6 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
90.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 3 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
90.3%
Jayy McDonald run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
90.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 6 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+3
90.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-2
90.3%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 48Similar
Q1 7:18
4TH & 3
OPP 48
-10
90.4%
ULBRICH, Kyle punt 33 yards to the MAR15, fair catch by HENRY, Artie, PENALTY MT holding (SHEPHERD, Brett) 10 yards to the MT42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:18
4TH & 13
OWN 42
+42
90.7%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 50 yds , Artie Henry returns for 42 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
50
+2
90.5%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
90.5%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
90.4%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Corey GammageSimilar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
90.2%
Robert LeFevre punt for 23 yds, downed at the MTnSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
89.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
89.9%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+7
90.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 7 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
89.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 39 yds, downed at the Marsh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 42 yds · 1:4490% → 89%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
89.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Artie Henry for 5 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+5
89.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 5 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
89.9%
WELLS, Grant pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Willie, PENALTY MT holding (PATTERSON, D.) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
50
+3
90.0%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+10
89.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Artie Henry for 10 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
89.8%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
89.8%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Xavier Gaines, broken up by Gregory Grate Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+9
89.6%
Brenden Knox run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
89.4%
Brenden Knox run for no gain to the MTnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 2:5311% → 17%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
88.7%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
88.8%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+5
89.0%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive offside (Jamare Edwards) to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+21
88.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (Koby Cumberlander) to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
88.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Yusuf Ali, broken up by Jamare EdwardsSimilar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+18
88.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 18 yds to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
87.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+11
87.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 11 yds to the Marsh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
87.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 7 yds to the Marsh 8Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+2
87.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 2 yds to the Marsh 6Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+2
88.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the Marsh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 4 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
85.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Devin Miller for 10 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
85.8%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Corey GammageSimilar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
85.6%
Grant Wells run for 7 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
85.8%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Artie HenrySimilar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
85.3%
Robert LeFevre punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
83.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+1
84.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+9
84.4%
Asher O'Hara run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
83.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+3
83.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 3 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+3
84.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 3 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q2 9:03
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+6
84.4%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 41 yds , Artie Henry returns for 6 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:2584% → 89%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
83.9%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
84.2%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+7
83.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 7 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+44
84.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 44 yds to the MTnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
84.8%
Grant Wells run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Hayden Hagler for 1 yd for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13FUMBLE
9 plays · 20 yds · 1:0913% → 15%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
86.7%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to CJ Windham, broken up by Steven GilmoreSimilar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
87.3%
Jayy McDonald run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+12
87.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 12 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
86.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 8 yds to the Marsh 43Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+4
85.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
85.3%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Darius Hodge for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 47 Asher O'Hara fumbled, recovered by Marsh Tavante Beckett , return for 0 yards , return for 8 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:0088% → 93%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
88.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Artie Henry for 10 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
88.2%
Grant Wells run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+14
88.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 14 yds to the MTnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
92.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 17 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15MISSED FG
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:328% → 9%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
91.7%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Chaton MobleySimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
91.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
50
0
91.3%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
50
+13
91.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 13 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+54
90.7%
Crews Holt 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · 67 yds · 0:008% → 10%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
91.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 32 yds to the MARSHALL 43 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
90.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the Marsh 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+7
90.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 7 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+6
90.7%
Chaton Mobley pass complete to Asher O'Hara for 6 yds to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+21
90.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Marquel Tinsley for 21 yds Marquel Tinsley fumbled, forced by Nazeeh Johnson, recovered by Marsh Nazeeh JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17TD
4 plays · 92 yds · 1:3492% → 98%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+46
92.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 46 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
92.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 14 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
92.7%
Willie Johnson run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+28
97.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 28 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
96.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 4 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+4
96.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 4 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
96.7%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to CJ Windham, broken up by Steven GilmoreSimilar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+9
96.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 30 , Artie Henry returns for 9 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
97.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 2 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+2
97.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 2 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
97.5%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Shadeed AhmedSimilar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
97.3%
Robert LeFevre punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
97.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 9 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 1
OWN 24
-4
97.1%
Chaton Mobley run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
97.3%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
97.3%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 52 yds , Artie Henry returns for no gain to the Marsh 28 Artie Henry fumbled, forced by Jaylin Lane, recovered by MTnSt Wayne ParksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:023% → 10%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
96.8%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete, QB hurry by HODGE, Darius, QB hurry by BEAUPLAN, A., PENALTY MAR holding (GILMORE, Steven) 10 yards to the MAR18, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
96.8%
Jayy McDonald run for 1 yd to the Marsh 17Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-5
96.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Robert Jones) to the Marsh 22Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+20
97.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 20 yds to the Marsh 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:1193% → 98%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
93.4%
Sheldon Evans run for 5 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+34
93.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Artie Henry for 34 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
97.9%
Sheldon Evans run for 26 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+16
97.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
50
-1
97.3%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-1
97.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Frank Peasant for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+7
97.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for 7 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
97.4%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:0998% → 100%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+33
98.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 33 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
98.4%
Grant Wells run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+23
99.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 23 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
Q3 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-15
99.8%
MARSHALL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Willie Johnson) to the Marsh 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.8%
Asher O'Hara run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
50
+2
99.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
99.8%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jaylin Lane, broken up by Jaylon McClain-SappSimilar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+3
99.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 3 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
99.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Artie Henry at the Marsh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 26MISSED FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 8:20100% → 100%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
99.8%
Brenden Knox run for 11 yds to the Marsh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.8%
Grant Wells run for 2 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+7
99.8%
Brenden Knox run for 7 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
99.8%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Willie Johnson, broken up by Kenneth MajorSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+14
99.8%
Brenden Knox run for 14 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.8%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+10
99.8%
Grant Wells run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
99.8%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
99.8%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+9
99.8%
Grant Wells run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.8%
Sheldon Evans run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
99.8%
Sheldon Evans run for no gain to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+3
99.8%
Sheldon Evans run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+39
99.9%
Shane Ciucci 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
99.9%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Owen Porter) to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 3 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to CJ Windham, broken up by Joshua BowersSimilar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Artie Henry at the Marsh 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 28END OF GAME
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:08100% → 100%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
99.9%
Lawrence Papillon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 18Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+25
99.9%
Luke Zban run for 25 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
99.9%
Lawrence Papillon run for 1 yd to the Marsh 44Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+4
99.9%
Luke Zban run for 4 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+4
99.9%
Lawrence Papillon run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+5
99.9%
Lawrence Papillon run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
99.9%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-3
99.9%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:51
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)
-7
TD · Q2 10:29
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 4 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)
-5
TD · Q3 11:32
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 28 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)
+4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com