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USM

Southern Miss 35 at Liberty 56

LIB
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:32 · Griffin Fleming pass complete to Natrone Brooks for 13 yds to the SoMis 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Pregame prior+4.2Home team on offense+23.9Score differential+8.0Garbage-time factor+5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.3Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:46: Malik Willis pass complete to Chris Barrett for 18 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK) — LIB win probability +7.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:21: Tate Whatley run for 16 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +5.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:05: Tate Whatley run for 1 yd for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +7.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:27: Tate Whatley run for 4 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +11.8 pts (now 24%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:32: Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 42 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK) — LIB win probability +8.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 7:36USM 4th & 15 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:49USM 4th & 4 at USM 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:05LIB 4th & 2 at USM 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    81.2%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    79.1%−2.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:11LIB 4th & 3 at USM 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    81.0%−0.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:10USM 4th & 1 at USM 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.8%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:06USM 4th & 10 at USM 7, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:01LIB 4th & 11 at USM 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:00USM 4th & 10 at USM 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:25LIB 4th & 10 at USM 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:25LIB 4th & 10 at USM 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:32USM 4th & 15 at USM 25, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:34USM 4th & 2 at LIB 36, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 7 of 7USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:00USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:14LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:41LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:46LIB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:15LIB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:21USM Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:05USM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:27USM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:32LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:22LIB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:27LIB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:18USM Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5820% → 21%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
80.4%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Demarcus Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+17
80.3%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 17 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+29
80.1%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 29 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
80.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+1
79.8%
Tate Whatley run for 1 yd to the Liber 31Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+21
79.6%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 21 yds to the Liber 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
78.7%
Tate Whatley run for 10 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:3879% → 80%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
78.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 17 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
78.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 9 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+39
79.8%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 39 yds for a TD, (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:2121% → 22%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
79.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+6
78.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
78.7%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 15 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
78.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the Liber 44Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-1
78.1%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Cole Cavallo for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 45Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-5
78.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (Khalique Washington) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 15
50
0
78.2%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Antoine RobinsonSimilar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 15
50
0
78.4%
Griffin Fleming punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 5:5878% → 81%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
78.2%
Shedro Louis run for 3 yds to the Liber 15Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+2
78.1%
Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the Liber 17Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+10
77.6%
Willis, Malik pass incomplete to Huntley, Johnny, PENALTY SOUMISS holding (Harrell, Camron) 10 yards to the LIBERTY27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY.Similar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
78.0%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Johnny HuntleySimilar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+23
77.8%
Malik Willis run for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
50
+5
78.5%
Peytton Pickett run for 5 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+5
78.4%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
78.2%
LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 20
50
+2
77.7%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 18
OPP 48
+14
77.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 14 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+4
77.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 4 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
78.1%
LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+12
77.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 12 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+16
80.8%
Malik Willis run for 16 yds to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2020% → 20%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
79.7%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 11 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
79.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
79.1%
Tate Whatley run for 4 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
78.9%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Grayson GunterSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
79.7%
Griffin Fleming punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6TD
15 plays · 83 yds · 5:5880% → 86%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
79.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to Peytton Pickett for no gain to the Liber 17Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+32
79.7%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 32 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
80.7%
Malik Willis run for 18 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
80.9%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
80.9%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+8
80.4%
Shedro Louis run for 8 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+2
79.9%
Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
81.6%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
81.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 7 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
81.2%
Shedro Louis run for no gain to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+6
80.6%
Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
81.8%
Malik Willis sacked by Terence Cherry for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
86.2%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 11 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1615% → 15%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
85.1%
Tate Whatley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
85.3%
Brandon Hayes run for 9 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
84.8%
Tate Whatley run for no gain to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
85.2%
Kevin Perkins run for no gain to the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:1486% → 94%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
86.0%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 8 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+9
86.2%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 9 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
86.2%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Johnny HuntleySimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
94.2%
Malik Willis pass complete to Chris Barrett for 18 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9KICKOFF
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:068% → 7%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
92.5%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Cole Cavallo for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 6Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+6
92.7%
Tate Whatley run for 6 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
93.1%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Grayson GunterSimilar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 5
OWN 12
-5
93.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 7Similar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 10
OWN 7
0
93.2%
Griffin Fleming punt for 37 yds , Demario Douglas returns for no gain to the SoMis 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 3:4395% → 99%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
94.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 14 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
95.1%
Joshua Mack run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+25
95.2%
Shedro Louis run for 25 yds to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
95.4%
Shedro Louis run for 1 yd to the SoMis 6Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
95.6%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 10Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
98.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 10 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
98.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:2799% → 99%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.7%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-11
98.7%
Malik Willis sacked by Santrell Latham for a loss of 11 yards to the Liber 16 Malik Willis fumbled, forced by Santrell Latham, recovered by SoMisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13TD
1 play · 16 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
93.2%
Tate Whatley run for 16 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14TD
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:047% → 14%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
93.4%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Antoine RobinsonSimilar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
93.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+7
93.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the Liber 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
93.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the Liber 18Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+16
93.6%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 16 yds to the Liber 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
93.8%
Darius Maberry run for 1 yd to the Liber 1Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.0%
Darius Maberry run for no gain to the Liber 1Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.3%
Tate Whatley run for 1 yd for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:5289% → 89%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 8 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
89.1%
Shedro Louis run for 16 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
90.0%
Peytton Pickett run for 7 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+3
90.0%
Peytton Pickett run for 3 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
90.1%
Malik Willis run for 4 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
90.2%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-5
90.0%
Malik Willis sacked by Josh Ratcliff for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 8:01
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
89.3%
Aidan Alves punt for 36 yds, downed at the SoMis 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16TD
13 plays · 94 yds · 4:2511% → 24%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
89.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 10 yds to the SoMis 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
88.7%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Brandon HayesSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+5
89.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+35
89.2%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 35 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
87.3%
Tate Whatley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
87.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the Liber 39Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+6
87.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the Liber 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
86.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 11 yds to the Liber 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
86.6%
Kevin Perkins run for no gain to the Liber 22Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+19
87.5%
Tate Whatley run for 19 yds to the Liber 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
87.8%
Kevin Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 4Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
87.9%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Grayson GunterSimilar
Q3 3:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
76.0%
Tate Whatley run for 4 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4682% → 94%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 3 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
82.4%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+17
81.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 17 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
85.1%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 5
50
+8
85.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 8 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
94.2%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 42 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:269% → 8%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
90.9%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Antoine RobinsonSimilar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
91.1%
Tate Whatley run for 1 yd to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 0:37
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-1
91.5%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Demarcus Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
92.4%
Griffin Fleming punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:2595% → 95%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
94.5%
Malik Willis run for 13 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
94.5%
Shedro Louis run for no gain to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
94.7%
Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for no gain to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
95.4%
Malik Willis run for no gain to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
95.1%
Aidan Alves punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20INT
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:366% → 6%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+20
94.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, Personal Foul (Ralfs Rusins) to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
94.2%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 3 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+4
94.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+8
94.5%
Tate Whatley pass intercepted Jimmy Faulks return for 7 yds to the SoMis 42 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SoMis 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1096% → 96%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
96.2%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
96.1%
Shedro Louis run for 5 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-5
96.4%
Malik Willis sacked by Santrell Latham for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
96.0%
Alex Barbir 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:435% → 4%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
95.1%
Dee Baker run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 13
OWN 27
-9
95.6%
Tate Whatley sacked by Tre'Shaun Clark for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 18 Tate Whatley fumbled, recovered by SoMisSimilar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 22
OWN 18
+7
95.8%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Kevin Perkins for 7 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+13
95.9%
Griffin Fleming pass complete to Natrone Brooks for 13 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 23TD
1 play · 38 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
99.3%
Malik Willis run for 38 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 41 yds · 1:271% → 1%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+34
99.2%
Darius Maberry run for 34 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.3%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Darius MaberrySimilar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.3%
Darius Maberry run for 5 yds to the Liber 39Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+3
99.3%
Darius Maberry run for 3 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 2
OPP 36
-1
99.3%
Tate Whatley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 25TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 4:03100% → 100%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.6%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the Liber 37Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.6%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+46
99.7%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 46 yds to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
99.7%
Malik Willis run for 7 yds to the SoMis 6Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+5
99.7%
Malik Willis pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 5 yds to the SoMis 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.7%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 1:020% → 1%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
100.0%
Kevin Perkins run for 15 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
100.0%
Kevin Perkins run for 8 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+25
100.0%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 25 yds to the Liber 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
100.0%
Darius Maberry run for 2 yds to the Liber 17Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
99.4%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 17 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:27
Tate Whatley run for 4 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q3 1:32
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 42 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q2 5:46
Malik Willis pass complete to Chris Barrett for 18 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)
+7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com