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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreUTEP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Joshua Sloan punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:35: Ronald Awatt run for 4 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +10.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:26: Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 22 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +12.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:31: Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 10 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +10.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:40: Micaleous Elder run for 13 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +5.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:43: Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 8 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +4.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UTEP made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 12:20UTEP 4th & 1 at CLT 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.0%71% to convertField goal12.9%−0.174% to makePunt12.5%−0.5average punt
- Q1 3:29CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snapGo for it83.3%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.5%average punt
- Q2 15:00UTEP 4th & 18 at UTEP 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snapGo for it16.8%−0.912% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.7%average punt
- Q2 14:15CLT 4th & 8 at UTEP 43, tiedClose callPunted · 82.2% before the snapGo for it82.2%34% to convertField goal82.0%−0.228% to makePuntTheir call82.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 15:00CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snapGo for it75.5%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.1%average punt
- Q3 10:54CLT 4th & 10 at UTEP 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snapGo for it72.8%−1.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.9%average punt
- Q3 2:05UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 34, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 17.7% before the snapGo for it18.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.5%−1.4average punt
- Q4 12:42CLT 4th & 5 at UTEP 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snapGo for it87.0%−0.639% to convertField goalTheir call87.6%83% to makePunt79.7%−7.9average punt
- Q4 11:34UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 34, down 10Close callWent for it · 10.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.6%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.9%average punt
- Q4 8:24UTEP 4th & 5 at CLT 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.9%42% to convertField goal8.8%−1.132% to makePunt9.1%−0.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UTEP made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 12:20CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.0%97% to makeGo for two87.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:29UTEP Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.9%97% to makeGo for two15.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:35UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.8%97% to makeGo for two29.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:26CLT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.0%97% to makeGo for two72.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:31CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.6%97% to makeGo for two80.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:40CLT Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 2:43UTEP Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.5%97% to makeGo for two5.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 2:30CLT Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 0:53UTEP Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.6%97% to makeGo for two4.2%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTEPDrive 1INT7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4010% → 10%
CLTDrive 2TD2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0990% → 90%
UTEPDrive 3TD19 plays · 64 yds · 8:5110% → 15%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+4
89.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 4 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-5
89.6%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 16
OWN 44
+15
89.7%
HARDISON, Gavin pass incomplete to COWING, Jacob, QB hurry by HARRIS, Tyriq, PENALTY CLT pass interference (WILLIAMS,Antone) 15 yards to the CLT41, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+5
89.6%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 5 yds to the Charl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+8
89.6%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 8 yds to the Charl 21Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+13
89.6%
HARDISON, Gavin pass incomplete to DAWN JR., W., PENALTY CLT pass interference (MCMILLAN, Lance) 13 yards to the CLT2, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
UTEPDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0315% → 15%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-8
84.6%
Joshua Fields run for 2 yds to the UTEP 22 UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UTEP 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 14:15
3RD & 2
OPP 37
-6
85.6%
Calvin Camp run for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 43 Calvin Camp fumbled, forced by Keenan Stewart, recovered by Charl Calvin CampSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7TD15 plays · 98 yds · 6:3517% → 30%
CLTDrive 8TD14 plays · 79 yds · 5:0972% → 81%
Q2 5:35
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+12
71.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Ryan Carriere for 12 yds to the Charl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
73.5%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass incomplete to TUCKER, Victor, QB hurry by PRINCE, Justin, PENALTY CLT ineligible downfield on pass (JACOBS, Jon) 5 yards to the CLT35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+5
71.9%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass intercepted by PRINCE, Justin at the UTEP40, PRINCE, Justin return to the CLT25, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UTEP offside (STEWART, Keenan) 5 yards to the CLT44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+7
73.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 7 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+25
68.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 25 yds to the UTEP 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
81.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 22 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9END OF HALF5 plays · 35 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
74.2%
HARDISON, Gavin pass incomplete to COOPER, D., PENALTY CLT pass interference (WHITEHEAD, B.) 15 yards to the CLT42, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+20
73.2%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 20 yds to the Charl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
79.2%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Micaleous Elder, broken up by Duron LoweSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11INT5 plays · 31 yds · 0:0025% → 27%
Q3 13:05
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-1
73.3%
Gavin Hardison pass intercepted Lance McMillan return for 1 yd to the Charl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 10:54
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+12
75.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 12 yds to the Charl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
77.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Rico Arnold for 6 yds to the Charl 47Similar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
78.4%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Aaron McAllister, broken up by Jayson VanHookSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13FUMBLE1 play · 17 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
70.6%
Deion Hankins run for 15 yds to the UTEP 37 Deion Hankins fumbled, forced by Ben DeLuca, recovered by Charl Lance McMillanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14TD9 plays · 37 yds · 3:2277% → 88%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
76.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Ryan Carriere for 5 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+17
75.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 17 yds to the UTEP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
87.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 10 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2617% → 16%
Q3 3:31
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
83.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 6 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16FG9 plays · 45 yds · 4:1589% → 91%
Q3 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-2
88.3%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Jayson VanHook for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 38Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+24
87.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 24 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
89.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 18 yds to the UTEP 20 CHARLOTTE Penalty, illegal block (Kendric Blake Jr.) to the UTEP 35Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 7
OPP 35
+15
91.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 15 yds to the UTEP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17DOWNS14 plays · 19 yds · 4:1810% → 10%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
89.9%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Jacob Cowing, broken up by Ben DeLucaSimilar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+10
90.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 10 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
88.6%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 7 yds to the Charl 49Similar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 5
OPP 41
-10
90.2%
Gavin Hardison sacked by Tyriq Harris for a loss of 10 yards to the UTEP 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18TD7 plays · 49 yds · 3:3594% → 99%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
93.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 8 yds to the UTEP 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19TD9 plays · 59 yds · 1:572% → 7%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.9%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Jacob Cowing, broken up by Ben DeLucaSimilar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+19
97.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 19 yds to the Charl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
97.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 15 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
97.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 6 yds to the Charl 19Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+9
97.4%
HARDISON, Gavin pass incomplete to GARRETT, Justin, PENALTY CLT holding (WHITEHEAD, B.) 9 yards to the CLT8, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
93.0%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 8 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20TD2 plays · 36 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21TD8 plays · 62 yds · 1:372% → 6%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
98.0%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+18
97.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 18 yds to the Charl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
97.5%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 17 yds to the Charl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
93.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 11 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:26
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 22 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
+12.2
TD · Q2 5:35
Ronald Awatt run for 4 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)
-10.2
TD · Q3 3:31
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 10 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
+10.1