2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreUNT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:59 · Ethan Mooney 44 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:58: Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 24 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:58: Jason Bean run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +9.1 pts (now 35%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:32: Jason Bean run for 48 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +15.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:44: Jason Bean pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 9 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +16.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:10: Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 55 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +16.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UNT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 15:00MTSU 4th & 1 at UNT 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.0%59% to convertField goal60.8%−0.294% to makePunt60.3%−0.7average punt
- Q2 15:00MTSU 4th & 19 at UNT 42, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snapGo for it70.8%−1.411% to convertField goal71.6%−0.630% to makePuntTheir call72.2%average punt
- Q2 0:44MTSU 4th & 16 at MTSU 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snapGo for it66.5%−2.615% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.1%average punt
- Q3 12:19MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snapGo for it57.7%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.4%average punt
- Q3 11:39UNT 4th & 16 at MTSU 35, tiedNumbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsPunted · 42.1% before the snapGo for it41.5%−1.616% to convertField goal43.1%45% to makePuntTheir call42.0%−1.0average punt
- Q3 1:44MTSU 4th & 13 at UNT 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snapGo for it32.8%−3.219% to convertField goalTheir call36.0%75% to makePunt25.2%−10.7average punt
- Q4 15:00MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it17.0%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.3%average punt
- Q4 3:59UNT 4th & 9 at MTSU 27, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snapGo for it94.7%−0.431% to convertField goalTheir call95.1%62% to makePunt91.8%−3.3average punt
- Q4 2:14MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 43, down 17Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.6%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 8:35MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.7%97% to makeGo for two62.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:39UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.9%97% to makeGo for two38.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:23MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.1%97% to makeGo for two64.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:39UNT Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.8%97% to makeGo for two32.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:58MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.1%97% to makeGo for two78.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:58UNT Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.1%97% to makeGo for two28.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:32UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.0%97% to makeGo for two37.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:44UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.1%97% to makeGo for two58.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:10UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.8%97% to makeGo for two79.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:10UNT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:40MTSU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.6%97% to makeGo for two7.5%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMTSUDrive 1DOWNS8 plays · 72 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+69
63.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 63 yds to the MIDDLETENN 12 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Makyle Sanders) to the NoTex 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.1%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to WINDHAM, CJ, PENALTY UNT offside 1 yards to the UNT1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2INT10 plays · 56 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+21
63.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 21 yds to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+18
63.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 18 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
62.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 3 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+14
62.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Austin Ogunmakin for 14 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-47
62.9%
Austin Aune pass intercepted Quincy Riley return for 47 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3TD6 plays · 15 yds · 1:5264% → 66%
Q1 10:27
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+7
63.4%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Larry Nixon III) to the NoTex 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 3 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD8 plays · 91 yds · 1:5035% → 39%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+53
64.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 53 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5TD15 plays · 75 yds · 4:1663% → 67%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
62.5%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to ENGLAND-CHISOLM, PENALTY UNT offside (MCCRAE, D.) 5 yards to the MT37, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+23
62.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 23 yds to the MIDDLETENN 37 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
63.4%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to WINDHAM, CJ, PENALTY UNT offside (MURPHY, Grayson) 5 yards to the UNT4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 2 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6FUMBLE TD3 plays · -9 yds · 0:4034% → 29%
Q1 1:35
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+20
71.1%
Austin Aune sacked by Gregory Grate Jr. for a loss of 6 yards Austin Aune fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Gregory Grate Jr. , return for 0 yards , return for 20 yds, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7INT4 plays · 24 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
MTSUDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 0:3073% → 73%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-9
73.8%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Gabriel Murphy for a loss of 9 yards to the NoTex 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9TD5 plays · 99 yds · 1:3826% → 33%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4169% → 79%
Q2 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
69.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for no gain to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
68.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 10 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
69.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 8 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+12
70.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 12 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
70.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 7 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-8
70.6%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Dion Novil for a loss of 8 yards to the NoTex 28Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 14
OPP 24
+24
78.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 24 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11TD13 plays · 80 yds · 2:5122% → 35%
Q2 3:49
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+11
76.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+29
76.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 29 yds to the MTnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
75.5%
Jason Bean pass complete to Austin Ogunmakin for 9 yds to the MTnSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 0:1471% → 69%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
71.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 16 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
72.9%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Larry Nixon III for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+10
70.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 1
50
-15
71.3%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Robert Jones) to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
69.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaelon Darden at the NoTex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13END OF HALF4 plays · 61 yds · 0:0830% → 32%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
69.4%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 5 yds to the 50 yard line MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 5
50
+31
68.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Roderic Burns for 31 yds to the MTnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD6 plays · 74 yds · 1:2229% → 46%
MTSUDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1361% → 58%
Q3 12:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
61.2%
O'HARA, Asher pass complete to PIERCE, Jarrin for 66 yards to the UNT0, clock 12:19, PENALTY MT ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the MT29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
59.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for 1 yd to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-2
58.4%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 39 yds , Deonte Simpson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
57.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Greg White for 8 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
53.8%
Tre Siggers run for 20 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 5
OPP 24
-11
53.8%
Jason Bean sacked by Brett Shepherd for a loss of 11 yards to the MTnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17INT2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
UNTDrive 18TD5 plays · 39 yds · 1:4547% → 65%
MTSUDrive 19MISSED FG13 plays · 52 yds · 4:5341% → 36%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
41.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 8 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+9
43.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 9 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
43.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 10 yds to the MIDDLETENN 45 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding (CJ Windham) to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-5
44.9%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Tyreke Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+37
36.4%
Crews Holt 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by DeShawn Gaddie TEAM return for no gain to the NoTex 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD5 plays · 79 yds · 1:3466% → 86%
Q3 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+55
13.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 55 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:1017% → 17%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
17.3%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Kevin Wood and Dion Novil for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
16.7%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Deonte Simpson at the NoTex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:2488% → 98%
Q4 13:34
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
11.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 3 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23TD6 plays · 71 yds · 2:243% → 11%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
3.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 16 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24FG12 plays · 50 yds · 4:3193% → 97%
Q4 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+15
6.9%
Jason Bean run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (Cody Smith) to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
6.7%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jaelon Darden, broken up by Decorian PattersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25DOWNS10 plays · 16 yds · 1:373% → 3%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
3.1%
O'HARA, Asher pass complete to MCDONALD, Jayy for 4 yards to the MT43 (GADDIE, DeShawn), PENALTY MT illegal formation 5 yards to the MT34, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26END OF GAME3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:10
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 55 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
-16.8
TD · Q3 6:44
Jason Bean pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 9 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
-16.7
TD · Q3 13:32
Jason Bean run for 48 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
-15.1