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UNT

North Texas 52 at Middle Tennessee 35

MTSU
2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:19 · Kyle Ulbrich punt for 39 yds , Deonte Simpson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Home team on offense+0.6Pregame prior+5.9Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:58: Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 24 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:58: Jason Bean run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +9.1 pts (now 35%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:32: Jason Bean run for 48 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +15.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:44: Jason Bean pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 9 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +16.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:10: Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 55 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +16.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UNT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 15:00MTSU 4th & 1 at UNT 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00MTSU 4th & 19 at UNT 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−1.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    71.6%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:44MTSU 4th & 16 at MTSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−2.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  4. Q3 12:19MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:39UNT 4th & 16 at MTSU 35, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 1:44MTSU 4th & 13 at UNT 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−3.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−10.7
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  8. Q4 3:59UNT 4th & 9 at MTSU 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:14MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 43, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:35MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:39UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:23MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:39UNT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:58MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:58UNT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:32UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:44UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:10UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:10UNT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:40MTSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 72 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.1%
Asher O'Hara run for no gain to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+69
63.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 63 yds to the MIDDLETENN 12 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Makyle Sanders) to the NoTex 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
63.1%
Jayy McDonald run for 4 yds to the NoTex 2Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
63.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.1%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to WINDHAM, CJ, PENALTY UNT offside 1 yards to the UNT1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
63.1%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2INT
10 plays · 56 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+21
63.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 21 yds to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
63.0%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
63.0%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 19Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+18
63.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 18 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
63.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
62.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 3 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+14
62.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Austin Ogunmakin for 14 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
62.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
62.8%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Austin OgunmakinSimilar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-47
62.9%
Austin Aune pass intercepted Quincy Riley return for 47 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:5264% → 66%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
63.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
63.6%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+7
63.4%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Larry Nixon III) to the NoTex 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
63.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the NoTex 4Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
63.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the NoTex 3Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 3 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 1:5035% → 39%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
65.1%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+21
65.1%
Tre Siggers run for 21 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
64.9%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
65.0%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
64.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+53
64.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 53 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:1663% → 67%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
63.0%
Jayy McDonald run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
62.5%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to ENGLAND-CHISOLM, PENALTY UNT offside (MCCRAE, D.) 5 yards to the MT37, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
62.9%
Jayy McDonald run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+5
62.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+23
62.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 23 yds to the MIDDLETENN 37 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
63.5%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+8
63.7%
Asher O'Hara run for 8 yds to the NoTex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+17
63.7%
Chaton Mobley run for 17 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
63.7%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the NoTex 9Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
63.7%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
63.4%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to WINDHAM, CJ, PENALTY UNT offside (MURPHY, Grayson) 5 yards to the UNT4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
63.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, (2 Yards) to the NoTex 2Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 2 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:4034% → 29%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
66.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+20
71.1%
Austin Aune sacked by Gregory Grate Jr. for a loss of 6 yards Austin Aune fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Gregory Grate Jr. , return for 0 yards , return for 20 yds, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7INT
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.0%
Nic Smith run for 8 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
70.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 16 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-30
70.4%
Austin Aune pass intercepted Quincy Riley return for 30 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:3073% → 73%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
73.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+6
73.7%
Chaton Mobley run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
74.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 11 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
74.2%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+11
74.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 11 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
74.2%
Jayy McDonald run for 2 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-2
74.2%
Jayy McDonald run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-9
73.8%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Gabriel Murphy for a loss of 9 yards to the NoTex 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 19
OPP 42
0
72.7%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 41 yds, downed at the NoTex 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9TD
5 plays · 99 yds · 1:3826% → 33%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
74.3%
Jason Bean pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+8
74.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 8 yds to the NoTex 9Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+6
74.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the NoTex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+25
73.9%
Jason Bean run for 25 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
67.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 60 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4169% → 79%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.0%
Jayy McDonald run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
69.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for no gain to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
68.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 10 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
69.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 8 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+12
70.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 12 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
70.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+6
70.5%
Chaton Mobley run for 6 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
70.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 7 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+4
70.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the NoTex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-8
70.6%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Dion Novil for a loss of 8 yards to the NoTex 28Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 18
OPP 28
+4
70.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 14
OPP 24
+24
78.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 24 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 2:5122% → 35%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
78.0%
Jason Bean run for 8 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+2
77.6%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
77.8%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
77.6%
Jason Bean run for 6 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+11
76.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
50
+6
76.7%
Nic Smith run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+29
76.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 29 yds to the MTnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
75.5%
Jason Bean pass complete to Austin Ogunmakin for 9 yds to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+2
75.5%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
75.5%
Jason Bean pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
65.0%
Jason Bean run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:1471% → 69%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
71.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 16 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
72.9%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Larry Nixon III for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
71.6%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jayy McDonaldSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+10
70.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 1
50
-15
71.3%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Robert Jones) to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
69.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaelon Darden at the NoTex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 61 yds · 0:0830% → 32%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
70.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 25 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
69.4%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 5 yds to the 50 yard line MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 5
50
+31
68.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Roderic Burns for 31 yds to the MTnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:2229% → 46%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
71.2%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+9
71.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 9 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
70.5%
Jason Bean pass complete to Austin Ogunmakin for 10 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
69.1%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+48
54.0%
Jason Bean run for 48 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1361% → 58%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
61.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
61.2%
O'HARA, Asher pass complete to PIERCE, Jarrin for 66 yards to the UNT0, clock 12:19, PENALTY MT ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the MT29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
59.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for 1 yd to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-2
58.4%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 39 yds , Deonte Simpson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
57.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Greg White for 8 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+14
55.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
53.8%
Tre Siggers run for 20 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
52.4%
Tre Siggers run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 2
OPP 21
-3
52.4%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 5
OPP 24
-11
53.8%
Jason Bean sacked by Brett Shepherd for a loss of 11 yards to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 16
OPP 35
0
58.7%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17INT
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
60.1%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Jordan Palmer) to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-2
59.9%
Asher O'Hara pass intercepted Cam Johnson return for 2 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:4547% → 65%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
53.1%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Nic SmithSimilar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+29
53.1%
Jason Bean run for 29 yds to the MTnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
51.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+2
51.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 2 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
35.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 9 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19MISSED FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 4:5341% → 36%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
41.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 8 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+9
43.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 9 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
43.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 10 yds to the MIDDLETENN 45 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding (CJ Windham) to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
43.5%
Jayy McDonald run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 5
50
+14
44.8%
Asher O'Hara run for 14 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
45.2%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+1
46.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the NoTex 30Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+13
44.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 13 yds to the NoTex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
46.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
46.9%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-5
44.9%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Tyreke Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+37
36.4%
Crews Holt 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by DeShawn Gaddie TEAM return for no gain to the NoTex 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:3466% → 86%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
33.6%
Jason Bean run for 11 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
32.2%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+8
31.6%
Tre Siggers run for 8 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
30.7%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+55
13.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 55 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:1017% → 17%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
17.2%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
17.3%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Kevin Wood and Dion Novil for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
16.7%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Deonte Simpson at the NoTex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:2488% → 98%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
12.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 10 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
11.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 10 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
11.1%
Nic Smith run for 4 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
11.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 3 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+48
2.3%
Jason Bean run for 48 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:243% → 11%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
3.3%
Jayy McDonald run for 20 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
3.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 16 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
4.0%
Jayy McDonald run for 1 yd to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+4
4.0%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+30
10.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 30 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:3193% → 97%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
7.3%
Tre Siggers run for 17 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
6.9%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+15
6.9%
Jason Bean run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (Cody Smith) to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
6.7%
Nic Smith run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+9
6.6%
Nic Smith run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
6.6%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-5
6.6%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
6.7%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jaelon Darden, broken up by Decorian PattersonSimilar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+3
7.1%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
3.0%
Ethan Mooney 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 16 yds · 1:373% → 3%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
3.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 4
OWN 33
0
3.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+6
3.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
3.1%
O'HARA, Asher pass complete to MCDONALD, Jayy for 4 yards to the MT43 (GADDIE, DeShawn), PENALTY MT illegal formation 5 yards to the MT34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+2
3.0%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
3.0%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Frank PeasantSimilar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+7
2.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 2:14
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
2.8%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
1.2%
Nic Smith run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+2
1.2%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+8
1.2%
Nic Smith run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:10
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 55 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
-16.8
TD · Q3 6:44
Jason Bean pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 9 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
-16.7
TD · Q3 13:32
Jason Bean run for 48 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
-15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com