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MRSH

Marshall 35 at Louisiana Tech 17

LT
2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:21 · Aaron Allen pass complete to Israel Tucker for 10 yds to the Marsh 9 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.5+26.30−26.3−52.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Home team on offense−51.2Pregame prior−2.7Score differential−45.6Garbage-time factor−18.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:04: Jacob Barnes 35 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +4.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:57: Brenden Knox run for 1 yd for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +7.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:34: Brenden Knox run for 7 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +10.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:41: Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 12 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +11.6 pts (now 22%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:09: Grant Wells pass complete to Artie Henry for 46 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +11.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 15:00MRSH 4th & 4 at LT 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    77.1%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:36LT 4th & 25 at LT 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:14MRSH 4th & 1 at LT 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    75.0%−0.6
    77% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:04LT 4th & 7 at MRSH 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−4.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:04LT 4th & 19 at MRSH 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00LT 4th & 11 at LT 7, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:29LT 4th & 1 at LT 16, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:09LT 4th & 2 at LT 43, down 18
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:03LT 4th & 11 at LT 27, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:19MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 41, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:21LT 4th & 2 at MRSH 19, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.3
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MRSH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:36MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:57MRSH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:34MRSH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:41LT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:09MRSH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:03MRSH Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:36LT Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1DOWNS
12 plays · 39 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
21.8%
Brenden Knox run for 5 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
21.8%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
21.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 5 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
21.8%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
21.8%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
21.8%
Grant Wells run for 6 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
21.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Broc Thompson for 12 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
21.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 3 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+3
21.8%
Knowledge McDaniel run for 3 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
21.8%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Broc ThompsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
21.8%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Broc ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-11
24.2%
Luke Anthony pass intercepted Eli Neal return for 11 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3TD
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:4376% → 77%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
23.7%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+13
23.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 13 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
23.6%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+9
23.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 9 yds to the LaTch 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
23.6%
Brenden Knox run for 5 yds to the LaTch 6Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+4
23.6%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds to the LaTch 2Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
23.7%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd to the LaTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.6%
Brenden Knox run for no gain to the LaTch 1Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.6%
Brenden Knox run for no gain to the LaTch 1Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.0%
Grant Wells run for 1 yd for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
23.8%
Justin Henderson run for 4 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-6
23.9%
Luke Anthony sacked by Jamare Edwards for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 25Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 12
OWN 25
-8
23.4%
Luke Anthony sacked by Darius Hodge for a loss of 8 yards to the LaTch 17Similar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 20
OWN 17
-5
23.3%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (Tahj Magee) to the LaTch 12Similar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 25
OWN 12
+5
23.3%
Jacob Barnes punt for 36 yds , Talik Keaton returns for 5 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
23.2%
Willie Johnson run for no gain to the LaTch 43Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
23.2%
Grant Wells run for 15 yds to the LaTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
23.1%
Sheldon Evans run for 1 yd to the LaTch 27Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+7
23.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 7 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
23.3%
Sheldon Evans run for 1 yd to the LaTch 19Similar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
23.6%
Sheldon Evans run for no gain to the LaTch 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6FG
15 plays · 64 yds · 5:1125% → 30%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
24.6%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the LaTch 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+10
24.6%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 10 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
24.8%
Justin Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+15
24.6%
ANTHONY, Luke pass incomplete to TOUSSANT, Wayne, PENALTY MAR pass interference (MCCLAIN-SAPP, J) 15 yards to the TECH44, 1ST DOWN TECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
25.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 5 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
25.8%
Luke Anthony run for 4 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+1
25.9%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
26.0%
ANTHONY, Luke pass incomplete to HARDY, Adrian, PENALTY MAR pass interference (MCCLAIN-SAPP, J) 15 yards to the MAR31, 1ST DOWN TECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
26.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Wayne Toussant for no gain to the Marsh 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
26.5%
Israel Tucker run for 11 yds to the Marsh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
26.5%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the Marsh 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-7
26.5%
Luke Anthony sacked by Koby Cumberlander for a loss of 7 yards to the Marsh 26Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 16
OPP 26
+9
25.6%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 9 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
29.7%
Jacob Barnes 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0032% → 28%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-12
31.7%
Luke Anthony sacked by Steven Gilmore for a loss of 12 yards to the Marsh 45Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 22
OPP 45
0
29.8%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 22
OPP 45
+3
28.9%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 19
OPP 42
0
28.0%
Jacob Barnes punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Broc Thompson at the Marsh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 6:2071% → 81%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+23
28.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Artie Henry for 23 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
27.5%
Brenden Knox run for 6 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
27.2%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
27.4%
Brenden Knox run for 5 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
26.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Broc Thompson for 18 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
26.3%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 8
OPP 0
0
26.1%
WELLS, Grant pass incomplete to THOMPSON, Broc, PENALTY MAR ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, PENALTY TECH pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
26.1%
Grant Wells run for 7 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+4
26.7%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds to the LaTch 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
26.1%
Brenden Knox run for 6 yds to the LaTch 11Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 4
OPP 11
-3
26.1%
Grant Wells run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 14Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+13
26.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Brenden Knox for 13 yds to the LaTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.3%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10END OF HALF
16 plays · 78 yds · 1:5120% → 21%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
20.2%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 3 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+21
20.4%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 21 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
21.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 6 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+5
22.2%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 5 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
22.3%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+13
22.1%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 13 yds to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
23.3%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 12 yds to the Marsh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
23.3%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 16Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+12
23.0%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 12 yds to the Marsh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
23.0%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 1Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.1%
Justin Henderson run for no gain to the Marsh 1Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
21.4%
Justin Henderson run for no gain to the Marsh 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
20.3%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the LaTch 9Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 9
-1
20.3%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Jawaun Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 8Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+5
19.5%
ANTHONY, Luke sacked for loss of 4 yards to the TECH4 (EDWARDS, Jamare), PENALTY MAR offside (EDWARDS, Jamare) 5 yards to the TECH13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 13
-6
19.7%
Luke Anthony sacked by Darius Hodge and Owen Porter for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 7Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 7
+13
19.2%
Jacob Barnes punt for 29 yds , Broc Thompson returns for 13 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
19.1%
Grant Wells pass intercepted Cedric Woods return for no gain to the LaTch 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
20.0%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the LaTch 9Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 8
OWN 9
0
20.0%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+7
19.2%
Luke Anthony run for 7 yds to the LaTch 16 Luke Anthony fumbled, forced by Abraham Beauplan,Similar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
19.1%
Jacob Barnes punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Broc Thompson at the Marsh 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 3:5681% → 92%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
19.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 11 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
19.0%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Defensive holding (Keivie Rose) to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
18.8%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+6
18.8%
Brenden Knox run for 6 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+5
19.2%
Brenden Knox run for 5 yds to the LaTch 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
18.6%
Grant Wells run for 1 yd to the LaTch 11Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+4
18.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 4 yds to the LaTch 7Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
8.0%
Brenden Knox run for 7 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:5311% → 22%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
10.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 3 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+12
10.6%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 12 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
11.2%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+50
10.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 50 yds to the Marsh 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
22.4%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 12 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3282% → 95%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
18.4%
Sheldon Evans run for 15 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
17.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 39Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+5
17.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 5 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+10
17.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 10 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
5.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Artie Henry for 46 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
9.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Greg Garner for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 32Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+11
9.1%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 11 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
10.2%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
10.1%
Jacob Barnes punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Broc Thompson at the Marsh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 5:4995% → 100%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
5.4%
Brenden Knox run for 9 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+2
5.4%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
5.4%
Brenden Knox run for 11 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
5.2%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+12
4.5%
Brenden Knox run for 12 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
4.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Artie Henry for 3 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-1
4.4%
Brenden Knox run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+15
4.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 15 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
4.3%
Sheldon Evans run for 6 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-2
4.2%
Sheldon Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 26Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+26
0.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 26 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 0%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
0.5%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
0.5%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-3
0.5%
Luke Anthony sacked by Immanuel Bush and Tavante Beckett for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 27Similar
Q4 11:03
4TH & 11
OWN 27
0
0.4%
Jacob Barnes punt for 48 yds, downed at the Marsh 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 5 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
0.5%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
0.5%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
0.5%
Brenden Knox run for 6 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
0.4%
Brenden Knox run for no gain to the Marsh 41Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
0.4%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Xavier GainesSimilar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
0.5%
Robert LeFevre punt for 46 yds , Cee Jay Powell returns for no gain to the LaTch 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 4:450% → 2%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
0.3%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 8 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+8
0.3%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 8 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
0.3%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 8 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+5
0.3%
Israel Tucker run for 5 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+31
0.3%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Jawaun Johnson for 31 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
0.4%
Aaron Allen run for 2 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
0.4%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Jawaun Johnson for 2 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+4
0.4%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Jawaun Johnson for 4 yds to the Marsh 19Similar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+10
0.4%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Israel Tucker for 10 yds to the Marsh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.4%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Jawaun Johnson, broken up by Steven GilmoreSimilar
Q4 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
2.3%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 9 yds for a TD MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (3 Yards) to the Marsh 0 (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
1.1%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:09
Grant Wells pass complete to Artie Henry for 46 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q3 5:41
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 12 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+11.6
TD · Q3 7:34
Brenden Knox run for 7 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)
-10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com