2020 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2020 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreUTEP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:22 · Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 23 yds to the UTEP 41 lat. to Elijah Klein for 3 yds Elijah Klein fumbled, recovered by LaTch Milton Williams
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:56: Gavin Hardison pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 33 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +5.8 pts (now 24%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:36: Justin Henderson run for 14 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +5.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:47: Israel Tucker run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +9.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:32: Gabe Siemieniec kickoff for 65 yds , Duron Lowe return for 100 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +12.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:30: Timeout LOUISIANA TECH, clock 02:30 — LT win probability +6.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 7 of 10UTEP made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 11:23UTEP 4th & 22 at UTEP 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it16.6%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.8%average punt
- Q1 7:45LT 4th & 3 at UTEP 47, up 7Close callPunted · 83.0% before the snapGo for it83.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:31UTEP 4th & 1 at LT 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.8%71% to convertField goal17.5%−0.366% to makePunt16.6%−1.2average punt
- Q2 15:00UTEP 4th & 1 at LT 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.6%71% to convertField goal17.9%−0.684% to makePunt15.8%−2.8average punt
- Q2 13:28LT 4th & 22 at LT 2, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snapGo for it79.9%−1.76% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.6%average punt
- Q2 9:56LT 4th & 18 at LT 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snapGo for it75.2%−1.013% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.2%average punt
- Q2 7:08UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snapGo for it24.3%−0.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.1%average punt
- Q3 15:00UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snapGo for it18.2%−1.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.2%average punt
- Q3 13:59LT 4th & 16 at LT 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snapGo for it78.3%−2.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.8%average punt
- Q3 9:02UTEP 4th & 6 at LT 12, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.3% before the snapGo for it19.5%−0.536% to convertField goalTheir call19.9%86% to makePunt12.6%−7.3average punt
- Q3 9:02LT 4th & 9 at UTEP 39, up 4Close callPunted · 77.3% before the snapGo for it77.5%32% to convertField goal77.1%−0.436% to makePuntTheir call77.2%−0.3average punt
- Q3 7:13UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 10, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snapGo for it21.2%−0.827% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.0%average punt
- Q3 6:48LT 4th & 11 at LT 49, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snapGo for it75.7%−1.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.9%average punt
- Q3 5:20UTEP 4th & 11 at UTEP 14, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it20.8%−2.025% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.8%average punt
- Q4 13:33LT 4th & 1 at UTEP 23, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.1%71% to convertField goal73.6%−3.570% to makePunt63.2%−13.9average punt
- Q4 11:32LT 4th & 9 at LT 26, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snapGo for it72.0%−3.030% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.0%average punt
- Q4 10:36UTEP 4th & 18 at UTEP 43, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snapGo for it21.2%−4.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.5%average punt
- Q4 8:08LT 4th & 8 at LT 24, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snapGo for it71.0%−3.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.3%average punt
- Q4 0:32LT 4th & 11 at UTEP 46, up 4Close callPunted · 92.3% before the snapGo for it91.6%−0.327% to convertField goal91.9%23% to makePuntTheir call91.8%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:23LT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.0%97% to makeGo for two83.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:56UTEP Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.4%97% to makeGo for two22.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:36LT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.3%97% to makeGo for two80.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:47LT Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.6%97% to makeGo for two89.4%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLTDrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3786% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
85.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Smoke Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+12
85.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 12 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
85.5%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Cee Jay Powell, broken up by Praise AmaewhuleSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+26
85.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 26 yds to the UTEP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
85.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2PUNT12 plays · 14 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+15
85.2%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 15 yds to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
85.1%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 8 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
85.1%
HARDISON, Gavin pass incomplete to GARRETT, Justin (LADLER, Khalil), PENALTY UTEP false start (LEE, Darta) 5 yards to the UTEP31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
85.2%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Jacob Cowing, broken up by Cedric WoodsSimilar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 20
OWN 26
-13
85.2%
HARDISON, Gavin pass incomplete to FIELDS, Josh, PENALTY UTEP personal foul (LEE, Darta) 13 yards to the UTEP13, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
84.9%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Justin Henderson for 8 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-4
85.2%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Smoke Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 48Similar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+18
84.9%
Jacob Barnes punt for 33 yds , Justin Garrett returns for 18 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4DOWNS13 plays · 54 yds · 4:3116% → 17%
Q1 4:31
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+27
84.5%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 12 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Jaiden Cole) to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
83.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 3 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+10
84.1%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Reynaldo Flores for 10 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -12 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q2 13:28
3RD & 7
OWN 17
-15
83.3%
Luke Anthony sacked by Kelton Moss and Praise Amaewhule for a loss of 15 yards to the LaTch 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6TD5 plays · 48 yds · 1:5718% → 24%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
82.1%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Jacob Cowing, broken up by Maki CarabinSimilar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+11
82.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 11 yds to the LaTch 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+33
75.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 33 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 2 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
79.6%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Adrian Hardy, broken up by Praise AmaewhuleSimilar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
79.4%
ANTHONY, Luke pass complete to HARDY, Adrian for 2 yards to the TECH40 (BARNES, Dennis), PENALTY UTEP offside defense (AMAEWHULE, P.) 5 yards to the TECH43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
80.2%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Smoke Harris for 3 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-11
79.9%
Luke Anthony sacked by Praise Amaewhule for a loss of 11 yards to the LaTch 40Similar
Q2 9:56
4TH & 18
OWN 40
-2
78.0%
Brady Farlow punt for 38 yds , Justin Garrett returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q2 7:08
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
76.8%
Joshua Sloan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9TD10 plays · 72 yds · 3:3277% → 85%
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
76.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 5 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+15
76.5%
ANTHONY, Luke pass incomplete to HARDY, Adrian, PENALTY UTEP pass interference (CALDWELL, Josh) 15 yards to the TECH48, 1ST DOWN TECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+23
77.3%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 23 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
79.2%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 8 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10END OF HALF12 plays · 20 yds · 0:5118% → 18%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
82.2%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 8 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
81.1%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 11 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-15
81.0%
HARDISON, Gavin pass incomplete to GARRETT, Justin, QB hurry by HALL, Deshon, PENALTY UTEP personal foul (HENRY, Zuri) 15 yards to the UTEP29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 19
OWN 35
+15
82.1%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 15 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 4
50
+6
79.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-10
80.8%
HARDISON, Gavin pass complete to FIELDS, Josh for no gain to the TECH44 (CLARK, Mykol), PENALTY UTEP holding (HENRY, Zuri) 10 yards to the UTEP46, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
LTDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q3 13:59
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-6
81.8%
Luke Anthony sacked by Praise Amaewhule for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13FG9 plays · 33 yds · 3:3120% → 22%
LTDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q3 9:02
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
82.7%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Adrian Hardy, broken up by Praise AmaewhuleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
LTDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0081% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 5:20
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+8
79.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 8 yds to the UTEP 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
78.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 1 yd to the UTEP 16Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+3
80.0%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jeremiah Byers for 3 yds to the UTEP 14Similar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 11
OWN 14
0
80.6%
Joshua Sloan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18TD14 plays · 60 yds · 5:3380% → 93%
Q3 2:20
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+5
80.2%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Jacob Adams for 5 yds to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 48
+20
78.2%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 20 yds to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+9
80.9%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Wayne Toussant for 9 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
UTEPDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q4 10:36
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+13
80.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 13 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
76.7%
Gavin Hardison sacked by Milton Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the UTEP 43Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 18
OWN 43
0
80.6%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Justin Garrett, broken up by Zach HannibalSimilar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 18
OWN 43
0
81.4%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Jacob Cowing, broken up by Cedric WoodsSimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 18
OWN 43
0
82.5%
Joshua Sloan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q4 8:08
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
77.4%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Isaiah Graham, broken up by Gary TheardSimilar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+25
76.7%
Jacob Barnes punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Justin Garrett at the LATECH 36 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the LaTch 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23INT3 plays · -15 yds · 0:0024% → 19%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
76.2%
HANKINS, Deion rush for 2 yards to the TECH47 (GRUBBS, Tyler), PENALTY UTEP personal foul (KLEIN, Elijah) 15 yards to the UTEP36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 25
OWN 36
0
81.2%
Gavin Hardison pass intercepted Cedric Woods return for no gain to the LaTch 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24PUNT14 plays · 26 yds · 5:5083% → 95%
Q4 6:22
2ND & 12
OWN 26
-3
82.5%
Luke Anthony sacked by Praise Amaewhule for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 23Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+7
81.4%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 7 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+15
81.0%
BARNES, Jacob punt 42 yards to the UTEP28, downed, PENALTY UTEP roughing the kicker (THEARD, Gary) 15 yards to the TECH45, 1ST DOWN TECH, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 25FUMBLE3 plays · 30 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
90.6%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Deshaun Trotter for 3 yds to the UTEP 14Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+3
91.4%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 23 yds to the UTEP 41 lat. to Elijah Klein for 3 yds Elijah Klein fumbled, recovered by LaTch Milton WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:32
Gabe Siemieniec kickoff for 65 yds , Duron Lowe return for 100 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)
-12.1
TD · Q4 11:47
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+9.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+8.6