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UTSA

UTSA 13 at UAB 21

UAB
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · Legion Field
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Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:36 · Bryson Lucero pass incomplete to Myron Mitchell, broken up by Dadrian Taylor
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Pregame prior+20.8Home team on offense+10.2Garbage-time factor+3.8Score differential+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:10: Bryson Lucero pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 15 yds for a TD (Matthew Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +2.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:32: Bryson Lucero pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 21 yds for a TD (Matthew Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +6.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:31: Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +10.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:31: Hunter Duplessis kickoff for 61 yds — UAB win probability +4.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:40: Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the UAB 45 — UAB win probability +4.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UTSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 14:46UTSA 4th & 10 at UAB 42, tied
    Close callWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    8.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:40UTSA 4th & 15 at UAB 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:06UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:34UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 43, down 4
    Close callPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UAB 4th & 12 at UAB 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:03UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:36UAB 4th & 6 at UAB 5, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:49UTSA 4th & 8 at UAB 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:02UTSA 4th & 1 at UAB 1, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:36UTSA 4th & 15 at UTSA 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00UAB 4th & 2 at UTSA 18, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.6%−0.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:36UAB 4th & 4 at UTSA 37, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−1.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:30UTSA 4th & 11 at UTSA 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:50UTSA 4th & 11 at UAB 46, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:31UAB 4th & 3 at UAB 32, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:48UTSA 4th & 17 at UAB 40, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%
    34% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTSA made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 3:34UAB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:10UAB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:32UAB Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:31UTSA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1FG
16 plays · 49 yds · 5:209% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.5%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
91.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 10 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
91.4%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 17 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
91.4%
WEEKS, Jordan pass incomplete, PENALTY UAB pass interference (MARSHALL, TD) 11 yards to the UAB42, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-8
91.4%
Jordan Weeks sacked by Jordan Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 18
50
0
91.4%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Brennon DingleSimilar
Q1 14:46
3RD & 18
50
-10
91.4%
WEEKS, Jordan pass complete to CEPHUS, Joshua for 11 yards to the UAB39 (HARRIS, Brontae), PENALTY UTSA holding (WATSON, Leroy) 10 yards to the UTSA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:46
3RD & 28
OWN 40
+18
91.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 18 yds to the UAB 42Similar
Q1 14:46
4TH & 10
OPP 42
+16
91.4%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 16 yds to the UAB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
91.4%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the UAB 26Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
91.4%
B.J. Daniels run for no gain to the UAB 26Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-5
90.0%
Jordan Weeks sacked by Alex Wright for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 31Similar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 15
OPP 31
+48
90.0%
Hunter Duplessis 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2INT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.8%
Bryson Lucero pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
89.8%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Trea Shropshire for 12 yds to the UAB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
89.8%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the UAB 38Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+12
89.9%
Spencer Brown run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
50
-5
90.0%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 45Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+1
89.8%
Bryson Lucero pass intercepted Rashad Wisdom return for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+19
88.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 19 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
88.8%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
88.8%
Jordan Weeks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+9
89.0%
Jordan Weeks run for 9 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 1
OWN 43
-5
88.8%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 38Similar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
89.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Myron Mitchell at the UAB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4TD
4 plays · 88 yds · 1:4888% → 89%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+73
87.9%
Spencer Brown run for 73 yds to the TexSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
88.6%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 18Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 13
OPP 18
0
88.6%
Bryson Lucero pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+18
89.1%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 18 yds for a TD (Matthew Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
89.0%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 11 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.8%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
88.9%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+8
89.2%
Jordan Weeks run for 8 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q1 3:34
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
89.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 52 yds, downed at the UAB 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:5088% → 87%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+30
88.2%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 30 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
88.3%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 34Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-3
88.3%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Austin Watkins for 12 yds to the UAB 46 UAB Penalty, UR (Rob Johnson) to the UAB 31Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
88.2%
Bryson Lucero pass incomplete to Gerrit PrinceSimilar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+2
88.0%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Rob Johnson for 2 yds to the UAB 33 UAB Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
87.2%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 36 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for no gain to the TexSA 31 Sheldon Jones fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7INT
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
87.7%
Jordan Weeks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+27
87.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 27 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
87.2%
Jordan Weeks pass intercepted Michael Fairbanks II return for 5 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:1888% → 91%
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
88.3%
Spencer Brown run for 6 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 4
OPP 24
0
88.3%
Bryson Lucero pass incomplete to Myron MitchellSimilar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+9
88.0%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 9 yds to the TexSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
88.3%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the TexSA 15Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
90.6%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 15 yds for a TD (Matthew Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
89.6%
B.J. Daniels run for 3 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
89.5%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 6 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-5
89.3%
DANIELS, B.J. rush for 2 yards to the UAB49 (SHROPSHIRE, T.;WILDER, Noah), PENALTY UTSA false start 5 yards to the UTSA44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
89.6%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Zakhari Franklin, broken up by Jordan SmithSimilar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
90.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 55 yds, downed at the UAB 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
90.0%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the UAB 1Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
90.0%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the UAB 5Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
89.7%
Bryson Lucero pass incomplete to RaJae' Johnson-SandersSimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+36
89.5%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 36 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11FG
11 plays · 25 yds · 2:1111% → 12%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
89.1%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UAB 47Similar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 15
OPP 47
0
89.4%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the UAB 47Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+9
89.6%
WEEKS, Jordan pass incomplete to CEPHUS, Joshua, PENALTY UAB holding (MARSHALL, TD) 9 yards to the UAB38, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
89.1%
Jordan Weeks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
89.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+15
89.2%
WEEKS, Jordan pass incomplete to CEPHUS, Joshua, PENALTY UAB pass interference (MARSHALL, TD) 15 yards to the UAB19, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
88.1%
Jordan Weeks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
88.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the UAB 17Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
88.7%
Jordan Weeks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+35
87.9%
Hunter Duplessis 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.0%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Kristopher Moll for 1 yd Kristopher Moll fumbled, forced by Jamal Ligon, recovered by TexSA Jamal LigonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:3614% → 12%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+25
86.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 25 yds to the UAB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
86.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the UAB 1Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.5%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 6:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.0%
Lowell Narcisse run for no gain to the UAB 1Similar
Q2 5:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
88.1%
Lowell Narcisse run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14INT
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
88.5%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UAB 8Similar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 5
OWN 8
+17
88.5%
Spencer Brown run for 17 yds to the UAB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
88.6%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 18 yds to the UAB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
89.3%
Bryson Lucero pass intercepted Corey Mayfield Jr. return for 6 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
88.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the UAB 48Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
87.7%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Brennon Dingle, broken up by Tyler TaylorSimilar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-9
87.7%
Jordan Weeks sacked by Fish McWilliams for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
89.5%
Lucas Dean punt for 36 yds, downed at the UAB 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:2189% → 90%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
88.8%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the UAB 26Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
88.8%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the UAB 26Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+15
88.5%
LUCERO, Bryson pass incomplete to MOLL, K., PENALTY UTSA pass interference (MAYFIELD, Corey) 15 yards to the UAB41, 1ST DOWN UAB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
89.5%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 10 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
89.6%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 23 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
89.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+8
89.8%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 8 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 2
OPP 18
0
89.4%
Bryson Lucero pass incomplete to Trea ShropshireSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+36
89.9%
Matthew Quinn 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 38 yds · 5:2489% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
88.6%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+12
88.4%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 12 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
88.6%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
88.7%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the UAB 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-3
89.0%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Spencer Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+23
88.1%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 8 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, personal foul (Rashad Wisdom) to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
89.6%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 9 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-6
89.7%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+3
89.2%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 3 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q3 9:36
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
87.6%
Bryson Lucero pass incomplete to Myron Mitchell, broken up by Dadrian TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
85.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-1
85.1%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 40Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+9
86.0%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 9 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
84.8%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Zakhari Franklin, broken up by Devodric BynumSimilar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
85.4%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Brennon DingleSimilar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-1
85.9%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Leroy Watson for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 48Similar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
87.3%
Lucas Dean punt for 42 yds, downed at the UAB 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 5:3887% → 96%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
86.9%
Spencer Brown run for 9 yds to the UAB 19Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+7
87.1%
Bryson Lucero run for 7 yds to the UAB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
87.2%
Trea Shropshire run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 24Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+19
86.9%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Spencer Brown for 19 yds to the UAB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+28
88.5%
DeWayne McBride run for 28 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
89.0%
DeWayne McBride run for 3 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+6
89.0%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 6 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+2
88.4%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
89.0%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 21Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+21
95.5%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 21 yds for a TD (Matthew Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:426% → 5%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
93.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+25
93.3%
Lowell Narcisse run for 25 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
92.6%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the UAB 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
93.0%
Lowell Narcisse run for 5 yds to the UAB 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-10
93.1%
NARCISSE, L. pass complete to DANIELS, B.J. for 28 yards to the UAB12, out-of-bounds (MOLL, K.), PENALTY UTSA holding 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 15
50
+4
95.1%
Lowell Narcisse run for 4 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
95.1%
Lucas Dean punt for 35 yds, downed at the UAB 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
96.3%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the UAB 11Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+4
96.2%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the UAB 15Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
96.2%
Bryson Lucero pass intercepted Trevor Harmanson return for no gain to the UAB 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:485% → 16%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+25
94.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 25 yds to the UAB 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
94.3%
NARCISSE, L. pass incomplete to FRANKLIN, Z. (MARSHALL, TD), PENALTY UAB pass interference (MARSHALL, TD) 7 yards to the UAB2, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.3%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the UAB 28Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
90.3%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
90.1%
Bryson Lucero pass incomplete to Rob JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:31
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+56
89.5%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the UTSA 25 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, personal foul (13 Yards) to the TexSA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
89.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+23
89.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 23 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
87.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+10
87.4%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 10 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
86.2%
Lowell Narcisse run for 16 yds to the UAB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
84.8%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 34Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-6
84.9%
Lowell Narcisse sacked by Tyree Turner for a loss of 6 yards to the UAB 40Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 17
OPP 40
0
89.2%
Lowell Narcisse pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 17
OPP 40
0
90.0%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Brennon Dingle, broken up by Damon MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 25END OF GAME
11 plays · 17 yds · 2:1795% → 97%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
94.6%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+5
94.7%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
50
+5
95.7%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
95.7%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the TexSA 45Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-15
96.5%
BROWN, Spencer rush for 6 yards to the UTSA39 (MATTERSON, B.), PENALTY UAB illegal block (FECANIN, Greg) 15 yards to the UAB40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 20
OWN 40
+6
96.1%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 6 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 14
OWN 46
+15
95.4%
GREENWELL, Kyle punt 27 yards to the UTSA27, downed, PENALTY UTSA roughing the kicker (WISE, Solomon) 15 yards to the UTSA39, 1ST DOWN UAB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 12
OPP 41
-2
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:31
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q3 1:32
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 21 yds for a TD (Matthew Quinn KICK)
+6.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:31
Hunter Duplessis kickoff for 61 yds
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com