Try the model
USM

Southern Miss 41 at North Texas 31

UNT
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · DATCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:32 · Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 9 yds to the SoMis 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:54: Tre Siggers run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +11.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:37: Jack Abraham pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 68 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +11.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:23: Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 17 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +13.5 pts (now 38%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:54: Darius Maberry run for 4 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +16.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:11: DeAndre Torrey run for 34 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +12.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:36UNT 4th & 11 at USM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:42USM 4th & 4 at UNT 14, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.5%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:42UNT 4th & 1 at USM 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.8%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−0.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−3.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:26USM 4th & 6 at USM 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:11UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:38USM 4th & 10 at UNT 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    56.7%−1.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:24USM 4th & 2 at UNT 17, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%−1.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−8.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:44USM 4th & 10 at UNT 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:37UNT 4th & 7 at USM 44, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    26.2%−1.0
    27% to make
    Punt
    27.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:47UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:56USM 4th & 5 at USM 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−1.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:09USM 4th & 1 at UNT 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.4%−4.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−5.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:37USM 4th & 7 at UNT 29, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.4%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    94.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:30USM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:26USM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:54UNT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:37USM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:23UNT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:54USM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:11UNT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:16USM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:16UNT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1FG
11 plays · 24 yds · 2:2453% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
53.2%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
53.2%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
53.2%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
53.2%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jaelon Darden, broken up by Ky'el HembySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
53.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 7 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+6
53.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
53.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
53.2%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 32
0
53.2%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+49
53.7%
Ethan Mooney 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:0646% → 47%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive offside (Dion Novil) to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+15
53.6%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
53.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 14 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
53.5%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+19
53.5%
Dee Baker run for 19 yds to the NoTex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
52.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 22 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:0447% → 49%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
52.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 17 yds to the NoTex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
52.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 11Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
51.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
51.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-6
51.5%
Austin Aune sacked by Dominic Quewon for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 20 Austin Aune fumbled, recovered by SoMis TQ Newsome , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2649% → 52%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
51.0%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
51.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+2
51.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 2 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
47.9%
Briggs Bourgeois 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6DOWNS
15 plays · 66 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
49.1%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+2
49.3%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+5
49.3%
Austin Aune run for 5 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
49.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
49.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+4
49.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
50
+25
49.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 25 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
49.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-1
49.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 24Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+9
49.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 9 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
49.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+4
49.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the SoMis 7Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+1
49.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the SoMis 6Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 1
OPP 6
0
49.6%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the SoMis 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
44.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+1
44.7%
Darius Maberry run for 1 yd to the SoMis 12Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 4
OWN 12
-2
44.9%
Jack Abraham sacked by KD Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 10Similar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 6
OWN 10
0
45.1%
Griffin Fleming punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaelon Darden at the NoTex 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
44.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 2 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+2
44.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 2 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
44.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
44.4%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 1:2358% → 60%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
42.0%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Brandon HayesSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
41.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+8
42.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
41.6%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
41.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+21
40.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 21 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
39.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the NoTex 45Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
39.2%
Tate Whatley sacked by Davontae McCrae for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 15
50
+5
39.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 5 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
40.1%
Griffin Fleming punt for 43 yds, downed at the NoTex 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+14
37.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 14 yds to the NoTex 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
37.7%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the NoTex 19Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+2
37.6%
Austin Aune run for 2 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+8
37.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 8 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
37.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 8 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
38.4%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jaelon Darden, broken up by Tyler BarnesSimilar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 2
OWN 37
-4
38.4%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 35 Nic Smith fumbled, recovered by SoMis Andrew ColeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11MISSED FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:1566% → 67%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
33.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 10 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
33.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the NoTex 25Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
34.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 8 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 2
OPP 17
0
33.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the NoTex 17Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+34
33.3%
Briggs Bourgeois 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 4:3034% → 47%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
34.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
34.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 7 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
34.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 7 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+6
35.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
35.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 5 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
34.9%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+4
34.7%
Nic Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
35.0%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+12
35.0%
Austin Aune pass complete to Asher Alberding for 12 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
35.6%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 30Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+3
35.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 3 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+18
35.0%
Tre Siggers run for 18 yds to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
35.9%
Tre Siggers run for 8 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.1%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 1:1060% → 64%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
40.0%
Jack Abraham run for 8 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
38.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+25
39.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 25 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
36.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Coker Wright) to the NoTex 46Similar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 15
OPP 46
0
37.5%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+17
38.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 17 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
35.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Antoine Robinson, broken up by Quinn WhitlockSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
36.1%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
37.0%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Demarcus Jones, broken up by Makyle SandersSimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
36.3%
Briggs Bourgeois 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:1939% → 37%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
39.4%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jaelon Darden, broken up by Natrone BrooksSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
35.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 26 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
37.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 5 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
37.6%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+14
37.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Greg White for 14 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2364% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
36.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 7 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
35.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Antoine Robinson for no gain to the SoMis 32Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+68
23.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 68 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:1424% → 38%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
24.3%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
25.0%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the NoTex 36Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+6
25.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Greg White for 6 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
26.0%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for no gain to the NoTex 42Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
25.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Greg White for 11 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
26.5%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
26.3%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
26.1%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 7
OPP 44
+14
25.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 14 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
27.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 11 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
24.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
37.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 17 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
33.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 16 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
31.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Demarcus JonesSimilar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
32.1%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Antoine RobinsonSimilar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+1
32.7%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Makyle Sanders return for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 31%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
33.7%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
33.3%
Nic Smith run for no gain to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
32.4%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Greg WhiteSimilar
Q3 7:47
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
31.1%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 57 yds , Demarcus Jones returns for no gain to the SoMis 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
32.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 7Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+10
32.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 10 yds to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
31.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-5
31.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Khalique Washington) to the SoMis 15Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+4
31.9%
Darius Maberry run for 4 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+9
32.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 9 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
31.0%
Darius Maberry run for 2 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+3
31.0%
Darius Maberry run for 3 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
31.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Antavious WillisSimilar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
32.2%
Griffin Fleming punt for 40 yds , David Chapple returns for no gain to the NoTex 22 David Chapple fumbled, recovered by SoMis Devin ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:5977% → 93%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
23.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 8 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+9
23.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 9 yds to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
23.2%
Darius Maberry run for 1 yd to the NoTex 4Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
6.9%
Darius Maberry run for 4 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 1:4313% → 29%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
12.7%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Deonte SimpsonSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+15
12.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Austin Ogunmakin for 15 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
13.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 11 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
14.3%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
14.3%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Greg WhiteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+14
14.0%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 14 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
15.9%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Greg WhiteSimilar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
28.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 34 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:5575% → 98%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
24.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 12 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
23.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+20
23.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 20 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
22.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+3
22.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
22.3%
Darius Maberry run for 3 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+1
13.0%
Darius Maberry run for 1 yd to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
11.4%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Demarcus Jones, broken up by DeShawn GaddieSimilar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
11.4%
Darius Maberry run for 4 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+6
11.5%
Jack Abraham run for 6 yds to the NoTex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
11.2%
Darius Maberry run for 8 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+14
1.8%
Darius Maberry run for 14 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 1:005% → 14%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
4.9%
Austin Aune sacked by Terence Cherry for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 27Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+36
4.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Greg White for 36 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
14.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 37 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24DOWNS
14 plays · 15 yds · 4:3992% → 97%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
8.3%
Darius Maberry run for 4 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
7.6%
Darius Maberry run for 1 yd to the NoTex 48Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+5
7.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 5 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
7.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+1
7.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
7.1%
Khalique Washington run for 2 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
7.0%
Khalique Washington run for 3 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+1
7.0%
Khalique Washington run for 1 yd to the NoTex 28Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 6
OPP 28
-1
7.2%
Darius Maberry run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 29Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 7
OPP 29
-9
3.3%
Jack Abraham sacked by Dayton LeBlanc for a loss of 9 yards to the NoTex 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25Uncategorized
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
3.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
50
0
3.5%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Austin Ogunmakin, broken up by Eric Scott Jr.Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 10
50
0
3.4%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 10
50
+9
3.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 9 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:54
Darius Maberry run for 4 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
-16.3
TD · Q3 9:23
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 17 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)
+13.5
TD · Q4 13:11
DeAndre Torrey run for 34 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)
+12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com