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WKU

Western Kentucky 20 at Middle Tennessee 17

MTSU
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:43 · Tyrrell Pigrome run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 21 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior−2.3Home team on offense−8.8Score differential−3.7Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:51: Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd for a TD (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 52%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:21: Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 6 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +16.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:04: Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Joshua Simon for 11 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +24.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:07: Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 2 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +29.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:05: Tyrrell Pigrome run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 40 — WKU win probability +13.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9WKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:14WKU 4th & 25 at WKU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:29MTSU 4th & 16 at MTSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:58WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 15, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:11MTSU 4th & 5 at WKU 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.2%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:11WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:09WKU 4th & 9 at MTSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:51MTSU 4th & 1 at WKU 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−8.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:59MTSU 4th & 6 at WKU 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−3.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00WKU 4th & 5 at WKU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:06MTSU 4th & 1 at WKU 44, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    44.7%−6.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%−3.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:26WKU 4th & 17 at MTSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−2.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.6%
    45% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:18MTSU 4th & 5 at WKU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00WKU 4th & 5 at WKU 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:16MTSU 4th & 12 at MTSU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−3.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:43WKU 4th & 1 at MTSU 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.9%−4.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−17.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:04MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.0%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 7:51MTSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:21WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:04WKU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:07MTSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
39.1%
Asher O'Hara sacked by DeAngelo Malone for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+1
39.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+8
39.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 8 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
39.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
39.5%
PIGROME, T. pass incomplete to LANE, X. (PATTERSON, D.), PENALTY WKU pass interference (LANE, X.) 15 yards to the WKU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 25
OWN 25
+2
39.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 2 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 23
OWN 27
0
39.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 23
OWN 27
-2
39.7%
Gaej Walker run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 25Similar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 25
OWN 25
0
39.8%
John Haggerty punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
40.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 6 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-3
40.7%
Jayy McDonald run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-9
40.4%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Eli Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 16
OWN 39
+1
40.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKent 6 , Dayton Wade returns for 1 yd to the WKent 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
40.8%
Gaej Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 5Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+8
40.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Joshua Simon for 8 yds to the WKent 13Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+2
40.9%
Gaej Walker run for 2 yds to the WKent 15Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
41.1%
John Haggerty punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:4142% → 43%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
42.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 9 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+5
42.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 5 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
42.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-1
42.3%
Chaton Mobley run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 37Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+7
42.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 7 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
42.4%
O'HARA, Asher rush for 1 yard to the WKU29 (JONES, J.), PENALTY MT face mask (JONES, Robert) 15 yards to the WKU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 25
OPP 45
0
41.9%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 25
OPP 45
+21
41.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jamichael Thompson for 21 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 4
OPP 24
-1
42.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 25Similar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
43.0%
Crews Holt 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by DeAngelo MaloneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6FG
11 plays · 30 yds · 5:0258% → 59%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
41.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 3 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
41.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 5 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
41.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for no gain to the WKent 49Similar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+9
42.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 9 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
41.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
41.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+12
41.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
40.9%
Gaej Walker run for no gain to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-11
41.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by DQ Thomas and Jordan Ferguson for a loss of 11 yards to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 41
+12
42.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Dayton Wade for 12 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
41.4%
Brayden Narveson 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 6:1842% → 52%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-3
42.9%
Jayy McDonald run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
41.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 10 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
42.7%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+16
43.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 16 yds to the WKent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
43.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the WKent 43Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+4
43.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jamichael Thompson for 4 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+7
43.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 7 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
44.5%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Marcus Greer) to the WKent 37Similar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+15
43.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 15 yds to the WKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
44.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the WKent 19Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+15
44.5%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to MARSHALL, Jimmy, PENALTY WKU pass interference (BRADSHAW, D.) 15 yards to the WKU4, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
46.0%
O'HARA, Asher pass complete to MOBLEY, Chaton for 4 yards to the WKU0, clock 08:40, PENALTY MT pass interference (WINDHAM, CJ) 15 yards to the WKU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
0
45.8%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+13
45.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 13 yds to the WKent 6Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
45.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 5 yds to the WKent 1Similar
Q2 7:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.2%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:0049% → 51%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
51.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Ty Nix for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 21Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+26
51.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 26 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
49.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 7
50
+3
48.9%
Chase Jones run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+14
49.2%
Gaej Walker run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 31 Gaej Walker fumbled, forced by Gregory Grate Jr., recovered by MTnSt Decorian PattersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:0353% → 61%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
53.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
54.2%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
54.6%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-5
53.5%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Jahlil Ryles) to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+29
52.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 29 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
55.9%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
55.9%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
54.9%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete, broken up by Devon KeySimilar
Q2 2:59
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
61.0%
Crews Holt 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 2:3840% → 60%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
59.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Joshua Simon for 9 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
58.0%
Chase Jones run for 10 yds to the WKent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
57.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 10 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
56.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Dayton Wade for 7 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 3
OPP 39
-7
56.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by DQ Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 41 Tyrrell Pigrome fumbled, recovered by WKent Xavier Lane , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+7
58.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 7 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
57.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Dayton WadeSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
57.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Dayton Wade for 9 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+6
58.1%
Chase Jones run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
56.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
57.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+13
58.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 6 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.7%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jayy McDonaldSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.2%
Chase Jones run for 6 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
44.0%
Chase Jones run for 1 yd to the WKent 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
45.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Joshua Simon for 5 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
44.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
44.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 5 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
43.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Xavier Lane, broken up by Quincy RileySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
45.7%
John Haggerty punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:0449% → 55%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
49.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+9
48.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 9 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
49.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
49.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for no gain to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
48.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
49.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jayy McDonald for 16 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
52.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
52.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
52.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 2 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
54.5%
Asher O'Hara punt for 43 yds, downed at the WKent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 4:3051% → 58%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+19
49.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Dayton Wade for 19 yds to the WKent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
48.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 4 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
48.0%
Chase Jones run for 7 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
47.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Xavier Lane, broken up by Decorian PattersonSimilar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
48.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 12 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
45.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 4 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
44.7%
Chase Jones run for 2 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+9
44.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Dayton Wade for 9 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
44.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
42.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Dayton WadeSimilar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
43.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Joshua SimonSimilar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-7
44.7%
Chase Jones run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 25 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding (Xavier Lane) to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 17
OPP 35
0
47.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley, broken up by Jordan BranchSimilar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 17
OPP 35
+53
41.9%
Brayden Narveson 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:0043% → 45%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
42.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 6 yds to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+1
43.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+32
41.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 32 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
47.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
48.5%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the WKent 49Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
47.4%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
45.3%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2560% → 57%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
40.5%
Chase Jones run for 2 yds to the WKent 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
40.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Dayton Wade for 3 yds to the WKent 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
41.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Dayton WadeSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
43.0%
John Haggerty punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0045% → 41%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
44.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 4 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-6
46.8%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Ricky Barber and Jeremy Darvin for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
42.0%
O'HARA, Asher pass complete to MARSHALL, Jimmy for 41 yards to the WKU29 (CRAY, R.), PENALTY MT illegal touching (MARSHALL, Jimmy) 0 yards to the MT30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
40.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dayton Wade at the WKent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 6:3961% → 90%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
39.1%
Jakairi Moses run for 7 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+7
37.0%
Jakairi Moses run for 7 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
36.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Joshua SimonSimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
37.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Dayton Wade for 7 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+3
36.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 3 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
36.1%
Jakairi Moses run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
34.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
34.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+8
36.6%
Jakairi Moses run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+4
38.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
34.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 6 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+4
34.5%
Jakairi Moses run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
9.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Joshua Simon for 11 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:5712% → 39%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.8%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
11.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 8 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
12.3%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+3
11.5%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to PIERCE, Jarrin, PENALTY WKU pass interference (KINCADE, A.) 3 yards to the MT36, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
12.6%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
12.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 3 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+6
12.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
12.7%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
13.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 10 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
14.8%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the WKent 42Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
7.6%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+28
7.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 28 yds to the WKent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
9.4%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to MARSHALL, Jimmy, PENALTY WKU pass interference (RUFFIN, D.) 12 yards to the WKU2, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 2 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20END OF GAME
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0884% → 86%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
16.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+8
14.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
10.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 14
OPP 36
-2
12.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 16
OPP 38
-2
13.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:07
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 2 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)
+29.6
TD · Q4 6:04
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Joshua Simon for 11 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-24.9
TD · Q2 0:21
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 6 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-16
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com